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Old 11-13-2016, 01:11 PM   #601
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Again do you not acknowledge that you are looking for anything that supports an opinion you've now formed? Feels like full on confirmation bias.
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Old 11-13-2016, 01:19 PM   #602
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Again do you not acknowledge that you are looking for anything that supports an opinion you've now formed? Feels like full on confirmation bias.
That's a cop out.

Scientific method. Propose a hypothesis and try to see if data supports or if you can disprove it.

I admire that you and Bingo, while I won't say 'company men', take some pride in the site, and should be moderate.

Fans should rightly be able to criticize the person delivering poor results.

You may be interested (or not) to know that I don't think he should be canned yet. But another 10-15 games should go a long way toward determining his fate.
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Old 11-13-2016, 01:24 PM   #603
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But I don't think the stuff you are citing is objective data. It is biased observations cherry picking very small moments and your interpretations of them, to fit your narrative. That's not data.
And my opinion has nothing to do with this site. It is mine formed on my own.
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Old 11-13-2016, 01:33 PM   #604
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Gulutzan has accumulated a 31% win percentage and many of the Losses probably half of those turds have been blowouts.
Make Franchise history and make him the quickest firing. That will be the best Flames news this season when it finally happens.
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Old 11-13-2016, 01:34 PM   #605
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But I don't think the stuff you are citing is objective data. It is biased observations cherry picking very small moments and your interpretations of them, to fit your narrative. That's not data.
And my opinion has nothing to do with this site. It is mine formed on my own.
And that is your opinion.

Look, there are different styles of leadership and different attributes that good leaders have.

Communication ability, motivation, preparation, anticipation, failure to adapt - I have seen hints of question marks in a lot of these areas.

On the ice has been a tire fire. The excuses from the start of last season are not available. This guy might be in over his head. You can have faith in Treliving and GG, that is your prerogative. To satisfy me, we need to see marked improvement.

The team is still (!) having trouble gaining the zone on the PP, and leaving lanes wide open allowing the other team access to their zone. This isn't getting better after a long break with much focus on it.

Think about it, I think it was Leslie that brought that up before the 4 day break. Throwing the idea that insufficient practice time was the culprit against the wall. Didn't stick.

And yes, individual succinct posts on a message board are, I suppose, cherry picking, by virtue of their own nature. I haven't gotten around to writing a proper essay on the coach.

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Old 11-13-2016, 01:36 PM   #606
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I asked in another thread too but were guys like Carlyle, Boudreau, or even Marc Crawford ever given some serious consideration by the Flames this summer? I don't recall hearing much on those guys but maybe a couple of internet rumours regarding Carlyle. I think any one of those 3 would have been a better candidate than Gulutzan.
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Old 11-13-2016, 01:38 PM   #607
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I asked in another thread too but were guys like Carlyle, Boudreau, or even Marc Crawford ever given some serious consideration by the Flames this summer? I don't recall hearing much on those guys but maybe a couple of internet rumours regarding Carlyle. I think any one of those 3 would have been a better candidate than Gulutzan.
Gulutzan was gift wrapped this job.
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Old 11-13-2016, 01:38 PM   #608
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But I don't think the stuff you are citing is objective data. It is biased observations cherry picking very small moments and your interpretations of them, to fit your narrative. That's not data.
And my opinion has nothing to do with this site. It is mine formed on my own.
But by and large these are simply disappointed fans suggesting some course of action that might see some improvement.

It's fine to point out its the players fault and they're not being coached to screw up. No one disagrees with that. But I would give people some slack who are at least suggesting a course of action vs. those who point out problems with out suggesting possible solutions.
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Old 11-13-2016, 01:38 PM   #609
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Look, I understand that their is a lot of data to support the notion that it can take time for a new coach/system to start producing positive results. I just wonder - how much time is acceptable to the management team and ownership? In my opinion it's not even the results that are most concerning, it's how awful the team has looked most nights.
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Old 11-13-2016, 01:41 PM   #610
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But by and large these are simply disappointed fans suggesting some course of action that might see some improvement.

It's fine to point out its the players fault and they're not being coached to screw up. No one disagrees with that. But I would give people some slack who are at least suggesting a course of action vs. those who point out problems with out suggesting possible solutions.
OK sure.
But those viewpoints can be challenged.
Moreover, a possible solution is indeed to stay the course.
As has been pointed out
- Teams in this type of state very rarely make positive trades or decisions
- Organizations that constantly flip coaches and management or often the same organizations that are perpetual losers

So doing nothing, is a valid option at this point.
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Old 11-13-2016, 01:42 PM   #611
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Look, I understand that their is a lot of data to support the notion that it can take time for a new coach/system to start producing positive results. I just wonder - how much time is acceptable to the management team and ownership? In my opinion it's not even the results that are most concerning, it's how awful the team has looked most nights.
Being the first team to 10 regulation losses this season should speak enough in my opinion.
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Old 11-13-2016, 02:12 PM   #612
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Don't get me wrong, I still think Gulutzan is an awful coach.
But the Flames will probably do better in the next 6 games, and the feelings will probably improve. They can't do much worse than losing 4 games in a row. Unless they push it to 10 of course...

But we're seen a good chunk of the season now, and the Flames have hardly progressed at all. I think it's pretty clear that Gulutzan was not the best choice for coach.
It's annoying how Boudreau, the winningest % coach of all time, was available. Treliving was slow, because he wanted to follow his huge multitude of processes. Minnesota was decisive, and managed to snag him quickly. What does Treliving do? He ends up hiring a processed-based coach. And it's been a flop.

Gulutzan is probably great at interviews. However, he's evidently not good at coaching. He hasn't really succeeded at any level.
Wish guys would get over Boudreau. Facts are he was not coming here. He has stated he's only coaching for 2 more years, and didn't even take the offer in Ottawa near his grandchildren. He chose the best opportunity available to win now before he retires.

Flames also don't want their coach retiring in 2 years when we may be in the middle of being competitive.
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Old 11-13-2016, 02:16 PM   #613
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Wish guys would get over Boudreau. Facts are he was not coming here. He has stated he's only coaching for 2 more years, and didn't even take the offer in Ottawa near his grandchildren. He chose the best opportunity available to win now before he retires.

Flames also don't want their coach retiring in 2 years when we may be in the middle of being competitive.
Wow, maybe I don't pay attention to hockey news as much as I used to because pretty much all of that is news to me on Boudreau. Can you post a link?

Also, why would Minnesota be okay with a really good coach quitting in two years? That seems weird.

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Old 11-13-2016, 02:19 PM   #614
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Again do you not acknowledge that you are looking for anything that supports an opinion you've now formed? Feels like full on confirmation bias.
He had his mind made up before the season started, before the team had even played a preseason game. If Brent Sutter is any indication, we're in for years and years of this pathetic whining and internet gesticulating.

It's so moronic.
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Old 11-13-2016, 02:26 PM   #615
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When GG coached the Nucks pp in 2013/14 they finished 28th That's terrible when you consider he had the Sedins. He was criticized for never changing the system the entire year. He was stripped of pp coaching duties the following season.
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Old 11-13-2016, 02:31 PM   #616
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But I don't think the stuff you are citing is objective data. It is biased observations cherry picking very small moments and your interpretations of them, to fit your narrative. That's not data.
This is true. I posted my own subjective opinion on the previous page. A few common criticisms include

A) That Gulutzan is coaching 5-on-5 for corsi and not shot quality.
B) That the special teams are not improving
C) That the team as a whole is exactly playing as it was to start the season.

But that too is not data.

Looking at wins and losses, that seems easy to say. But wins and losses don't factor in bounces, calls, individual slumps/hot streaks, goaltending, and strength of schedule. So let's look at the data - in four game segments.

Splitting the first sixteen games into four different four game segments, we can check to see if the Flames are or are not getting better.

-We're not going to look at corsi, because of (A)
-We're not going to look at 5-on-5 play in isolation because of (B)

Instead we'll look at expected goals in all situations. It's a holistic look at whether the team is starting to get better looks from better scoring areas, rush scoring, play with discipline, kill penalties better, get their best players playing well, all that stuff. 5v5 Corsi may be a strong predictor of future playoff success, but expected goals are a good record of past success/failure where Corsi could be misleading due to the perceived "Dallas Eakins Effect".

Hartley's Flames were respectively 24th, 20th, and 21st in All-Situations xGF% which probably lined up closer with their regular season on-ice visible results (to our eyes) than their corsi did (a 20th place team finishing 16th in standings or a 21st place team finishing 26th in the standings, neither is a huge swing given the goaltending.

The following are Score-Adjusted All-Situations Expected Goal Percentages across 4 game segments. As I type this I haven't looked at these particular numbers for this season. If the team is getting progressively better, that means the problem is being overstated by our narratives (mine included) and results should start to follow. If the team is plateauing at a low number, that means the coach has not done his job. In brackets I've included who faced in that segment as well as their rank in the stat on the season, because the opponent matters too.

Games 1 - 4: 48.07% (#21EDM, #21EDM, #28VAN, #20BUF - AVG#23)
The Flames blew the first segment going only 1-2-1 in it. But Gulutzan was still figuring things out. Expected goals were below 50% which is not good against four bad teams, u

Games 5 - 8: 40.84% (#9CAR, #14STL, #23CHI, #14STL - AVG#15)
The Flames were mostly outplayed in the second segment, but went 2-2-0. Our visual observations of the team not playing all that well weren't too off.

Games 9 - 12
: 41.96% (#15OTT, #4WAS, #23CHI, #2SJS - AVG#11)
The Flames slightly improved against better competition during the third segment, and again went 2-2-0

Games 13 - 16
: 47.97% (#5LAK, #10ANA, #18DAL, #1NYR - AVG#9)
Competition improved yet again, and yet despite going 0-4-0 the Flames started to play better overall than the previous two segments during the third segment. Given the quality of competition, I think an argument could be made that the Flames played better than they did in segment one, as well. 0-4-0 is never acceptable, but these are some opponents that with the exception of Dallas (**** you Alex Chiasson for that stupid penalty!) that are a poor guage for the coach to be evaluated on.

Games 17-20: ???? (#8MIN, #30ARI, #23CHI, #24DET - AVG#21)
The next segment is the first time the competition isn't getting progressively better. If the Flames post an xGF% > 50% for their first four game segment of the season, it could be a sign that Gulutzan's system is finally working. If the Flames' xGF% plateaus or drops despite the worse competition, it is a sign that Gulutzan is not getting results and to stop having patience.

Games 21-24: ???? (#20BUF, #27CBJ, #11BOS, #12PHI - AVG#17)
Another Below Average Competition segment follows the previous one. Another segment where Gulutzan should be under fair scrutiy.

Games 25-28: ???? (#26NYI, #13TOR, #8MIN, #10ANA - AVG #14)
A very average segment.

We Will See What Happens. In particular the nine games after Minnesota could either be proof positive that Gulutzan is a bad coach or that the Flames can turn things around and get points in every game.
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Old 11-13-2016, 02:41 PM   #617
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Putting Gulutzan aside for a moment. The Flames' core of Gaudreau, Giordano, Monahan, Brodie, Hamilton -- have been nothing short of disastrous. Are there any examples of coaches who have overcome their core effectively disappearing on them? Because that's pretty much what has happened to this coaching staff. Maybe Giordano isn't the captain he was once touted to be. Maybe this group is a lot more fragile than the team we saw in 14/15.

When I think to myself it's time to fire Gulutzan, I have to stop myself and remember that the Flames' core has yet to show up for a consistent sixty minutes this season. I'm not sure any coach could survive that.
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Old 11-13-2016, 02:48 PM   #618
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Putting Gulutzan aside for a moment. The Flames' core of Gaudreau, Giordano, Monahan, Brodie, Hamilton -- have been nothing short of disastrous. Are there any examples of coaches who have overcome their core effectively disappearing on them? Because that's pretty much what has happened to this coaching staff. Maybe Giordano isn't the captain he was once touted to be. Maybe this group is a lot more fragile than the team we saw in 14/15.

When I think to myself it's time to fire Gulutzan, I have to stop myself and remember that the Flames' core has yet to show up for a consistent sixty minutes this season. I'm not sure any coach could survive that.
This begs the question though. Did the core disappear because of GG or in spite of him? I don't profess to know the system but, to me, it looks like a slow boring style of hockey that oppositing teams just devour. We can't get out of our own end and certainly can't get into the offensive zone with any certainty. Guys standing at the blue line seemingly not knowing what to do.
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Old 11-13-2016, 02:57 PM   #619
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OK sure.
But those viewpoints can be challenged.
Moreover, a possible solution is indeed to stay the course.
As has been pointed out
- Teams in this type of state very rarely make positive trades or decisions
- Organizations that constantly flip coaches and management or often the same organizations that are perpetual losers

So doing nothing, is a valid option at this point.
Yeah, staying the course is indeed a valid option. But at some point you have to decide if the organization is on the right track or not. Staying the course with the wrong group is not going to work.

So you need to establish some meaningful goals for this team to measure progress, don't you? Have they been achieving those?

The current GM and coach have absolutely no track record of success so they're not going to get the benefit of the doubt. All they can be judged on is this teams performance. You can look at BB's track record and give him some slack. But it's been a long while since he built something.
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Old 11-13-2016, 02:57 PM   #620
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When GG coached the Nucks pp in 2013/14 they finished 28th That's terrible when you consider he had the Sedins. He was criticized for never changing the system the entire year. He was stripped of pp coaching duties the following season.

Oh and in Dallas as head coach in 2011-12 his pp was dead last at 13.5%
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