Quote:
Originally Posted by JiriHrdina
But I don't think the stuff you are citing is objective data. It is biased observations cherry picking very small moments and your interpretations of them, to fit your narrative. That's not data.
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This is true. I posted my own subjective opinion on the previous page. A few common criticisms include
A) That Gulutzan is coaching 5-on-5 for corsi and not shot quality.
B) That the special teams are not improving
C) That the team as a whole is exactly playing as it was to start the season.
But that too is not data.
Looking at wins and losses, that seems easy to say. But wins and losses don't factor in bounces, calls, individual slumps/hot streaks, goaltending, and strength of schedule. So let's
look at the data - in four game segments.
Splitting the first sixteen games into four different four game segments, we can check to see if the Flames are or are not getting better.
-We're not going to look at corsi, because of (A)
-We're not going to look at 5-on-5 play in isolation because of (B)
Instead we'll look at
expected goals in all situations. It's a holistic look at whether the team is starting to get better looks from better scoring areas, rush scoring, play with discipline, kill penalties better, get their best players playing well, all that stuff. 5v5 Corsi may be a strong predictor of future playoff success, but expected goals are a good record of past success/failure where Corsi could be misleading due to the perceived "Dallas Eakins Effect".
Hartley's Flames were respectively 24th, 20th, and 21st in All-Situations xGF% which probably lined up closer with their regular season on-ice visible results (to our eyes) than their corsi did (a 20th place team finishing 16th in standings or a 21st place team finishing 26th in the standings, neither is a huge swing given the goaltending.
The following are
Score-Adjusted All-Situations Expected Goal Percentages across 4 game segments. As I type this I haven't looked at these particular numbers for this season. If the team is getting progressively better, that means the problem is being overstated by our narratives (mine included) and results should start to follow. If the team is plateauing at a low number, that means the coach has not done his job. In brackets I've included who faced in that segment as well as their rank in the stat on the season, because the opponent matters too.
Games 1 - 4: 48.07% (#21EDM, #21EDM, #28VAN, #20BUF - AVG#23)
The Flames blew the first segment going only 1-2-1 in it. But Gulutzan was still figuring things out. Expected goals were below 50% which is not good against four bad teams, u
Games 5 - 8: 40.84% (#9CAR, #14STL, #23CHI, #14STL - AVG#15)
The Flames were mostly outplayed in the second segment, but went 2-2-0. Our visual observations of the team not playing all that well weren't too off.
Games 9 - 12: 41.96% (#15OTT, #4WAS, #23CHI, #2SJS - AVG#11)
The Flames slightly improved against better competition during the third segment, and again went 2-2-0
Games 13 - 16: 47.97% (#5LAK, #10ANA, #18DAL, #1NYR - AVG#9)
Competition improved yet again, and yet
despite going 0-4-0 the Flames started to play better overall than the previous two segments during the third segment. Given the quality of competition, I think an argument could be made that the Flames played better than they did in segment one, as well. 0-4-0 is never acceptable, but these are some opponents that with the exception of Dallas (**** you Alex Chiasson for that
stupid penalty!) that are a poor guage for the coach to be evaluated on.
Games 17-20: ???? (#8MIN, #30ARI, #23CHI, #24DET - AVG#21)
The next segment is the first time the competition
isn't getting progressively better. If the Flames post an xGF% > 50% for their first four game segment of the season, it could be a sign that Gulutzan's system is finally working. If the Flames' xGF% plateaus or drops despite the worse competition, it is a sign that Gulutzan is not getting results and to stop having patience.
Games 21-24: ???? (#20BUF, #27CBJ, #11BOS, #12PHI - AVG#17)
Another Below Average Competition segment follows the previous one. Another segment where Gulutzan should be under fair scrutiy.
Games 25-28: ???? (#26NYI, #13TOR, #8MIN, #10ANA - AVG #14)
A very average segment.
We Will See What Happens. In particular the nine games after Minnesota could either be proof positive that Gulutzan is a bad coach or that the Flames can turn things around and get points in every game.