New poll: Harper - Conservatives headed for third place next election?

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

The US economy was at its strongest

This is not true.

I can see how this conversation is going to go, but it's just not true.

[nik-]

Perhaps it is an Alberta centric view. Personally, I agree with a lot of the things he says, but something about him I don't like. Like he's trying a little too hard to please everyone and doesn't really have a clear policy map.

I don't want to vote for Harper ... but I don't really want to vote for anyone else either. Maybe I'll just add a box and vote for someone else.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Chretien's Liberals were first elected to office towards the tail end of the early 1990s recession. They were also in power during the early 2000s recession, although Canada's economy emerged from that relatively unscathed (I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to judge if the Liberal government deserves any credit for that).

To be fair, neither of the recessions the Liberals faced were nearly as bad as the global economic collapse of 2008. I don't fault The Harper Government at all for returning to deficit spending in light of the massive recession, but nobody could rightly call them model fiscal stewards either. Even ignoring the effects of the recession, they've made several very questionable decisions that have been soundly criticized by economists.

Yes, and that is a fair statement. I'm not claiming the Conservatives have been perfect. But Slava's disingenuous statemtn that ignored the fact that the current government bore the brunt of a recession far worse than anything the Liberals briefly encountered required comment.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by nik-

I really do wish the Liberals had a different leader. I feel they're going to squander a real opportunity to gain voters outside of their base who love Trudeau.

I'm not sure it matters.

Dion could very well have been the most intelligent and well intentioned leader the Liberals have had in decades, and he was figuratively assassinated by attack ads.

The people don't want a nice smart guy. They want confident and bullish. Trudeau at least has one of those down.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Gotta support your team.

Diffculty being that they are still the least repugnant option.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Yes, and that is a fair statement. I'm not claiming the Conservatives have been perfect. But Slava's disingenuous statemtn that ignored the fact that the current government bore the brunt of a recession far worse than anything the Liberals briefly encountered required comment.

Originally Posted by cdutka

We shouldn't forget that the Liberals were also responsible for blocking a lot of the banking rule changes that got other countries in trouble. At the time the banks said they were not able to keep up with banks from other countries that implemented the rules.

The CPC really can't take that much credit for having a banking system in place that was in a much more stable position that those of other countries.

[driveway]

According to the IMF, using the metric they used prior to 2009 (Global annual Real GDP growth of less than 3.0%) , there were global recessions in 1998 and 2001-03.

The metric was changed in 2009, and now four global recessions are recognized: 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009.

Regardless, the Conservatives are no good at pretty much everything.

[Rerun]

I used to believe in political polls.... until the last provincial election.

As many people have stated in the past is that the only poll that counts is the one on election day. We'll see then.

[GP_Matt]

My biggest problem with Trudeau is that he was dubbed the heir apparent to the Liberal party before he even entered politics. I know that isn't even his doing, but it has left me jaded.

With that said, I was really impressed that the Liberals came out and said free trade with Europe is a good thing and the Liberals support the agreement. If he had come out against it for purely partisan reasons I probably would have written him off. As it is, I am slowly warming to the Liberals and will shortly be moving from a riding where the Conservatives received 75% of the popular vote to a riding where won with 48% so my vote might matter slightly more.

[Flames89]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

I've voted Conservative in previous elections, but I don't think I can anymore. Ideology trumps pragmatism far too often for them to be in charge any longer.

This. 100%

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Rerun

I used to believe in political polls.... until the last provincial election.

As many people have stated in the past is that the only poll that counts is the one on election day. We'll see then.

Or recently in Quebec, provincially.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by nik-

Perhaps it is an Alberta centric view. Personally, I agree with a lot of the things he says, but something about him I don't like. Like he's trying a little too hard to please everyone and doesn't really have a clear policy map.

I don't want to vote for Harper ... but I don't really want to vote for anyone else either. Maybe I'll just add a box and vote for someone else.

One time I crossed out all candidates on the federal election and put down the name of a kid who was picked on in my Junior High school because I wanted to make things right. At the end of the election he was practically neck-and-neck with Elizabeth May.

[evman150]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Or recently in Quebec, provincially.

The recent British Columbia election as well. The polls weren't even remotely close.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Quebec's polls were dead on. The PQ had the lead early on, Marois opened her mouth and dropped the S word, they collapsed in the polls. Every poll heading into election day said they'd lose, and that's exactly what happen. BC and Alberta had the NDP and Wildrose winning and they both lost and in the Wildrose's case they got destroyed.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Or recently in Quebec, provincially.

Polling aggregator and analysis site ThreeHundredEight called the recent Quebec election almost perfectly.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/search/label/Quebec

Polling Prediction - Election Result
Liberals: 40.1% - 41.5%
PQ: 26.9% - 25.4%
CAQ: 24.4% - 23.1%
Quebec Solidaire: 7.9% - 7.6%

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Dion could very well have been the most intelligent and well intentioned leader the Liberals have had in decades, and he was figuratively assassinated by attack ads.

Dion is at least 50% to blame for his own downfall. Sitting at the coalition table with Duceppe wasn't a bright move, you can argue all day that the Bloc weren't part of the coalition but nobody was buying it. The attack ads were only sucessful because he reinforced them with his own sound bites. The bunker video was the final nail in his coffin, total amateur hour.

[burn_this_city]

The hot air book in the background was priceless.

[Fire]

Don't worry, Trudeau will open his mouth again and flush the Liberals chances of winning the election down the drain.

[Barbecue]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

One time I crossed out all candidates on the federal election and put down the name of a kid who I picked on in my Junior High school because I wanted to make things right. At the end of the election he was practically neck-and-neck with Elizabeth May.

fyp for what probably happened

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I'm not sure it matters.

Dion could very well have been the most intelligent and well intentioned leader the Liberals have had in decades, and he was figuratively assassinated by attack ads.

The people don't want a nice smart guy. They want confident and bullish. Trudeau at least has one of those down.

Things like the Green Shaft didn't help. Even parts of his own party caucus were opposed to it, and it helped create a perception of Dion as a "lone wolf". The coalition/attempted parliamentary coup likewise did not work in his favour. And we have a Conservative majority today because of Dion.

But the Conservatives were certainly well able to dictate the public view of both Dion and Ignatief. I have said in the past that such methods have a shelf-life, however. Trudeau may well be a big beneficiary if the narrative falls on deaf ears this time around.