2024/2025 Season trade rumours and speculation thread

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Without looking to closely, I think that the worse teams today are worse than the worse teams of the past. Teams are now routinely getting in the low 60's range and below to get to the bottom of the league. Like it or not, teams are tanking now more than ever.

Im not so sure about this.

The Quebec Nordiques were historically bad for a string of consecutive years. Points totals of 72, 69, 61, 31(!), 46, and 52. That’s as bad as it gets.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Im not so sure about this.

The Quebec Nordiques were historically bad for a string of consecutive years. Points totals of 72, 69, 61, 31(!), 46, and 52. That’s as bad as it gets.

I am talking about the last 5 years vs. the years before during the CAP era. Not 30 years ago.

It's clear more teams are tanking hard these days.

[Calgary4LIfe]

My preference is for this team to bottom out into a top 3 pick this year, and next year. Too early to tell if that happens with this start or not.


I think the turnaround will be quick here in Calgary if that happens. This team is a very good drafting and development team. They continually find players deep in the draft. The prospect pools is deep, but without 'star power'. That's what I think is missing long-term.


Some of the already drafted prospects - even those that are looking good at the moment - will fail. Some will exceed expectations. I think Conroy has done an excellent job of stocking up on picks and prospects. I just think that this organization needs a couple of star players.



My biggest fear isn't becoming Buffalo. It is becoming the Islanders. I don't think that Calgary could end up as bad as Buffalo has been even if they tried to do a scorched-earth rebuild (which I don't support). I just think that Buffalo has been so incredibly mismanaged over the years. They went from Tim Murray in 2014 to Jason Botterill in 2017 to Kevyn Adams in 2020. Coaches were even worse - Dany Bylsma in 2015, to Phil Housley in 2017, to Ralph Kruger in 2019, to Don Granato in 2021, to Lindy Ruff this season (which I think will probably create some stability there finally).



I don't think they drafted well enough, and thanks to Tim Murray, they even started their relationship with Eichel on a frosty note when he lamented publicly about losing the draft and having to settle with Eichel instead of McDavid.


I don't worry about Buffalo. I include them with Arizona, with Edmonton (without McDavid, will they be better than Buffalo?) - just mismanaged teams. It doesn't matter if they refused to rebuild, decided to rebuild or went through a scorched-earth rebuild - they are what happens when you allow a team to become so completely mismanaged for too long.


i also think that sometimes a team will just continue to try and compete, trade away too many valuable futures in trying to remain competitive (or worse, squander those assets by drafting and developing terribly), and then find themselves in a scorched earth rebuild whether or not they wanted one. That's the tough ones you end up in. This is sort of what happened to Edmonton. I really think this happened to Buffalo in the first place. I was getting worried about this with Treliving as well as he was sending a lot of assets out, especially towards the end.


I think there are certain things that you can do to mitigate how long and hard a rebuild is, and trying to continue winning when you can't by throwing assets at it for too long ensures a long and painful rebuild. I think Conroy did a LOT of heavy lifting last year (and his first year as a GM, which was extremely impressive in hindsight). He is hyper-focused on building through the draft which I really like as I really do think it is leveraging the greatest strength of this organization, and I also think that having a bunch of kids growing up together makes for a better team overall. However, it won't be his only means. If he finds something that fits for a reasonable cost, then great. It is not throwing assets away. It is still using assets towards building a good team.


I am curious how it all unfolds. It is tough to compete in this league without top-tier talent now.



My biggest fear without top talent is that a team without it has to compete so much harder than teams with it. I imagine players get more burnt-out and even have higher rates of injury playing like this. In the regular season, how often do you see a team without much talent out-shooting and out-competing a talented team, only for the opposing players to suddenly decide to crank it up and score 2 or 3 goals in a period and end up winning a game? Come playoff time, it is extremely difficult to out-compete teams then. Talent + Coaching + Health + Bounces (luck) decide the winners. Rarely do I see a team suddenly not compete, unless they are just being blown out game after game and the series is 3-0 or 3-1.



The good news is that Calgary has a good history of finding very good players through the draft. I would just feel a whole lot better overall if Calgary finds a way to draft one of the top centres at least from the next couple of drafts. It doesn't guarantee a cup - or anything else at all - but somehow I would simply feel better. It is going to be curious to see how this season turns out. I still feel a top 3-5 pick is on the table, but winning and losing can both snowball quickly. Win or lose, this team is fun, and that's the most important thing to me.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Pittsburgh wasn't that dissimilar either. They made the Conference Finals with Jagr in 2001, then the "re-build" started when they traded him to Washington.

They had Crosby in 2005 but they had picked top 5 in each of 2004/2003/2002 as well.

So if you go 2002 as the start of the rebuild (they picked Ryan Whitney 5th overall) then it was 6-7 years until they won the cup with Crosby in 2009.

So generally the best case scenario for a bottomed out rebuild is 5-7 years (Pittsburgh/Chicago) and the more likely is like 9-10 years (Colorado, Tampa Bay).

The one consistent though is you need a guy who is a top 10 center in the NHL to win. And you generally need to draft that guy. And generally you draft them in the top 5. But it's not impossible to get them in other ways, but you just need to have that guy to have any chance at winning a cup.

Yes, people always refence Pitt as a successful rebuild, but Crosby was a league-wide lottery. If they don't win that lottery, they continue on with the prior picks (Whitney, MAF and Malkin) maybe Bobby Ryan 05, Staal in 06, and quite likely have a rebuild that looks a LOT like Buffalo.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, people always refence Pitt as a successful rebuild, but Crosby was a league-wide lottery. If they don't win that lottery, they continue on with the prior picks (Whitney, MAF and Malkin) maybe Bobby Ryan 05, Staal in 06, and quite likely have a rebuild that looks a LOT like Buffalo.

Ya you're way more likely to end up like Detroit than any team that manages to draft two elite players in the top 3

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Getting 1st pick and being the worst team are 2 different things. 10 times the worst team picked 1st vs 9 times a team that wasn't last picked 1st. This is why the point totals are higher for some teams that got their star.

I only looked at the standings, not who actually picked first.

And it's clear the point totals over the last 5 or so years are worse than the 10 years before that.

And I really just focused on the 3 worse teams each year.

Regardless of whether Calgary falters from the nice start, I don't see then as SJ/Chicago/Anaheim bad from the last few years. They are going to be hard pressed falling to that level even if they trade Andersson. Their goaltending would need to falter quite badly I think for that to occur.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

My biggest fear isn't becoming Buffalo. It is becoming the Islanders.

I agree with your general points and I too fear the mushy middle more then anything again.

It's interesting that you used the islanders though.

I actually think they have some star power that might be often overlooked.

Dobson is a top 10 defender in the league. 24, 6"4, two way guy that can skate. Put up 70 points last year. Seems like their could still be more ceiling given his age.

Sorokin is a top 5 goalie in the league.

Barzal is obviously a great player too.


Maybe this isn't enough stars?

I think they've built an unsustainable model by trading too many 1sts. They lost prime tavares for nothing and then they started trading 1sts like crazy. They didn't have a 1st for 4 years between 2020-2023. Which seems insane to lose your star player then start moving out 1sts (but hey I guess we did it too...).

For not having 4 years worth of 1st they've brought in:

Jean-gabriel pageau
Romanov
Palmeri
Horvat


Which has kept them in the wildcard mix but doesn't seem worth it.

[ResAlien]

Quick check in, we got any rumours or are we firmly in the speculation portion of the thread?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Because it was cited as Chicago having missed the playoffs for 7 years. Chicago also won their play in round.

Flames were legit in a spot though not 12th like the Hawks

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I only looked at the standings, not who actually picked first.

And it's clear the point totals over the last 5 or so years are worse than the 10 years before that.

And I really just focused on the 3 worse teams each year.

Regardless of whether Calgary falters from the nice start, I don't see then as SJ/Chicago/Anaheim bad from the last few years. They are going to be hard pressed falling to that level even if they trade Andersson. Their goaltending would need to falter quite badly I think for that to occur.

But why 5 years? I looked at since 2006 draft which was the first draft in the salary cap era. If you look at last 5 years you are correct, most bottom 3 teams have been less than 66 points. Only 3 out of 15 are 66 or better.

But if you go back 6, the bottom e in 2019 were 64, 71 and 72.

Even with a the bottom teams being worse in the last 9 years for the first 10 years of the cap era, only 5 of 9 last place teams pick 1st. 2 outside of the bottom 3 picked 1st. COVID year was set up different though so the NYR lottery win probably shouldn't count.

2 teams in the last 9 years that finished last also picked outside the top 3 picks. Detroit and Colorado both had sub 50 point seasons and 2 of the 3 worst seasons in the cap era and lost the lottery 3 times.

There is risk going too far with the tank, I believe the Flames can get a top 3 picks and still be around a 70 point team. If they overachieve this year, maybe they move some unmovable guys and get that top 3 pick next year.

I don't think it is a bad thing we started well so far. It's early

Moves made in the off season show no sign of anyone tanking either.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Quick check in, we got any rumours or are we firmly in the speculation portion of the thread?

Historically, these threads are usually 90% speculation/discussion, 10% rumours.

[ForeverFlameFan]

On the topic of the Islanders, would they ever consider putting Barzal on the block if they have another meh year?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The case for drafting top-4 isn’t that it makes you likely to win the Cup. It’s that it makes you more likely to win the Cup than not drafting in the top-4.

If diving to the bottom of the standings gives you a 40 per cent chance of icing a contender once the rebuild matures, and not picking at the top of the draft gives you a 25 per cent chance of contending in that timeframe, then the tank strategy is the better strategy - even if it’s unlikely to make you a contender.

I’m having flashbacks to the CP Iginla Rebuild Wars (2009-12).

Okay, yeah - if those numbers are in any way accurate. But they're not, so it isn't much of an argument. Let's do the same thing, making up different numbers:

"If diving to the bottom of the standings gives you a 40 per cent chance of icing a contender once the rebuild matures, and not picking at the top of the draft gives you a 38 per cent chance of contending in that timeframe, then the tank strategy is the better strategy"

Doesn't quite have the same impact.

[Macho0978]

The other rule change that we have not seen how it impacts team is winning the draft lottery 2 times in 5 years. SJ is trending to be at the bottom again this year, they win it they are looking good, but they still could be a bottom team in the 2026 draft and not be included in the lottery.

Flames overachieve this year and sell some guys having good years and then bottom out next year isn't terrible. I just don't see Conroy buying and wasting assets, unless this team is a 100+ point team. If we are, still not a bad thing.

[HitterD]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

The other rule change that we have not seen how it impacts team is winning the draft lottery 2 times in 5 years. SJ is trending to be at the bottom again this year, they win it they are looking good, but they still could be a bottom team in the 2026 draft and not be included in the lottery.

Flames overachieve this year and sell some guys having good years and then bottom out next year isn't terrible. I just don't see Conroy buying and wasting assets, unless this team is a 100+ point team. If we are, still not a bad thing.

Does SJ picking 1st in 2024 count as a lottery win under the new rule? Since they finished last in the standings, they didn't actually move up to select 1st overall, they just weren't punished by moving down.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

On the topic of the Islanders, would they ever consider putting Barzal on the block if they have another meh year?

Likely not. He's still their second youngest offensive minded forward if you include Tsyplikov.

Also he's the age of player this iteration of the Flames needs to avoid paying the price to trade for.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by HitterD

Does SJ picking 1st in 2024 count as a lottery win under the new rule? Since they finished last in the standings, they didn't actually move up to select 1st overall, they just weren't punished by moving down.

They still won, they had the largest odds.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by HitterD

Does SJ picking 1st in 2024 count as a lottery win under the new rule? Since they finished last in the standings, they didn't actually move up to select 1st overall, they just weren't punished by moving down.

I think you are right, only counts of you move up

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

My biggest fear without top talent is that a team without it has to compete so much harder than teams with it. I imagine players get more burnt-out and even have higher rates of injury playing like this.

The positive aspect of this - and we'll see it this season with the Flames - is injuries to roster players, which will allow for bringing up prospects for a taste of the NHL.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

But why 5 years? I looked at since 2006 draft which was the first draft in the salary cap era. If you look at last 5 years you are correct, most bottom 3 teams have been less than 66 points. Only 3 out of 15 are 66 or better.

Because in the last 5 years, it seems to have dramatically changed.

Each of Chicago SJ and Anaheim purposely tanked, each trying to outdo the other. Their point total demonstrated that.

Will it continue? I don't know. But I think many teams are of the mindset that if they are going to rebuild, tanking is the way to go.