CP Mafia 3 - Super Smash Mafia - GAME OVER - Darkness Win!

[GP_Matt]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Dang it's plausible... I don't know what to do now.
It would be a lot simpler if you gave us a Capt. Crunch epic reveal.

I can provide a great reveal, but that didn't exactly help the cause last time.

[Kjesse]

The possibilities are:

GP town RD town
GP town RD mafia
GP mafia RD mafia
GP mafia RD town

My analysis of the GP_Matt response:

-If he and RatherDashing were linked as townies, GP would have said so by now. They are thus not linked as townie.

-However, if GP were mafia, and GP knew that, he'd also want to deny any link as his death would then naturally lead to RD's death to follow.

-He's distanced himself from RD. Is this truth or an attempt at damage mitigation?

[Mazrim]

Vote Count:

With 22 alive, it takes 12 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 8 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn’t Voted (4): Wood, hmmhmmcamo, stazzy33, RatherDashing

Voted:
GP_Matt (11): GGG, squiggs96, Baxter Renegade, bizaro86, devo22, Rathji, mrkajz44, Timbo, East Coast Flame, dissentowner, Drury18
bizaro86 (2): GP_Matt, GirlySports
squiggs96 (2): Delgar, Oling_Roachinen
GGG (1): starseed
Rathji (1): formulate
RatherDashing (1): Puxlut

The deadline is Wednesday, October 1st at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

As for Rather Dashing, he is away on a climbing trip in the states. Knowing that, I assumed that while out he will have his phone but will not likely be checking CP due to the high data roaming charges but most hotels have free wifi so I figured he would check in at night.

RD said they were going away on a yoga retreat, and not a climbing trip. Therefore, either one of you is not being truthful or someone is mis-informed. I guess there is a small possibility it is a climbing trip with yoga at nights?

The problem is the explanation seems reasonable. My issue is Matt's first post seemed to be sure that RD would have wifi, but now he is saying he is just guessing. That's not enough for me to change my vote.

There is a decent chance this is a big misunderstanding with poor use of language in Matt's original posting, but we have so little info to go after someone else. I still think the risk of Matt not being Mafia is worth it to try and get a mafia lynch on day 1.

Just another thought: As I was looking at the low posters, I noticed Stazzy had only 6 posts. One of them being an excuse he was busy "visiting" his long distance girlfriend and then another excuse about a job transfer. 33% of his posts are excuses?

I'm still keeping my vote on RD. He hasn't posted since Sept 28th. If he is away and can't find a way to post, he's not contributing.

[Kjesse]

FIXED IN BOLD

Originally Posted by Delgar

The possibilities are:

GP town RD town
GP town RD mafia
GP mafia RD mafia
GP mafia RD town

My analysis of the GP_Matt response:

-If he and RatherDashing were linked as townies, GP would have said so by now. They are thus not linked as townie.

-However, if GP is mafia, he'd also want to deny any link as his death would then naturally lead to RD's death to follow.

-He's distanced himself from RD. Is this truth or an attempt at damage mitigation?

I'm tending to believe to GP Matt. I'm looking for alternatives if there isn't enough movement to get to squiggs.

[GP_Matt]

I think the Yoga was just flavour because he is the wii fit coach.

As to my certainty I don't think I made that claim with certainty but I will dig it up and find out.

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

There is a decent chance this is a big misunderstanding with poor use of language in Matt's original posting, but we have so little info to go after someone else. I still think the risk of Matt not being Mafia is worth it to try and get a mafia lynch on day 1.

I agree. Plus if he does flip mafia, we have an automatic lynch for day two.

[stazzy33]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Just another thought: As I was looking at the low posters, I noticed Stazzy had only 6 posts. One of them being an excuse he was busy "visiting" his long distance girlfriend and then another excuse about a job transfer. 33% of his posts are excuses?

I'm still keeping my vote on RD. He hasn't posted since Sept 28th. If he is away and can't find a way to post, he's not contributing.

I am here, don't worry. Also, I did vote so I am not sure why my vote didn't show up on Mazrim's latest post.

I haven't had a chance to get caught up on GP_Matt's post and won't be changing my vote at the moment. That being said, I should get a chance to get caught up over lunch, and post a bit more detail on my thoughts.

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by stazzy33

I am here, don't worry. Also, I did vote so I am not sure why my vote didn't show up on Mazrim's latest post.

Your vote was not properly bolded so I did not include it.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

I agree. Plus if he does flip mafia, we have an automatic lynch for day two.

I think this is the biggest reason to stick with GP_Matt. If he is mafia, it's a two for one deal. Even if you have someone else you think is just as likely (and what are the odds we could agree on that by the deadline?) it would only get you one mafioso if you're right.

So even if the odds of GP_Matt being mafia are the same as everyone else, the payoff is higher. So it's the best bet to make, imo.

Statistically, we're probably lynching a townie on the first day, but this seems to tilt the bet in our favour a bit.

[RatherDashing]

Hey everybody, sorry for all the confusion that I've caused! As Matt has said, we know each other in real life, which is why he had more info on my whereabouts. I haven't had any Internet access the last few days as I've been camping, and am now just passing through Moab so have a brief chance to catch up a bit.

Unfortunately I don't have much to add, as I don't have enough time to read back through much of the thread. For strategy, I think we should definitely lynch somebody today, but don't lynch Matt based on his 'slip'.

Also, sorry I haven't contributed much so far. I may have some wifi time tonight before the deadline, and should have more time online his weekend, but probably nothing until then.

[Baxter Renegade]

I dunno... GP and Dashing still seem fishy. I think we should hammer. Like others have said, this could be a one-two punch if GP flips mafioso. And do we really have much more to go on for a lynch on day1? I have a couple other minor suspicions, but nothing that comes close to this. The only downside is that if GP flips town, we really don't have much to go on come day 2...

[stazzy33]

Originally Posted by stazzy33

[bold] vote: squiggs96 [\bold]

Whoops sorry! Quoting my old post for visibility.

Vote: squiggs96

[GP_Matt]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

Sorry I didn't quote anything but as I catch up with the thread I wanted to make two points.
RatherDashing is out of town for a few days and won't have the best cell service. I expect him to post more in the evening when he has WiFi but don't know that for a fact.

Quoting most of the post that started it all.

I think I was clear that I thought he would post in the evening but didn't know for certain.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Delgar

FIXED IN BOLD



I'm tending to believe to GP Matt. I'm looking for alternatives if there isn't enough movement to get to squiggs.

I think his flip could tell us more than GP_Matt's. The GP_Matt town flip would tell us the least I feel of the other candidates. There was an eagerness to vote for bizaro that was not equal to the eagerness to vote squiggs, but for my part, that was due to it being too early. It feels like GP_Matt is the latest bizaro, where people are eager to get this done and onto the night killings.

Since I am alone in the GGG vote, I will get on board the squiggs campaign.

Unvote

Vote: squiggs96

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

RatherDashing is out of town for a few days and won't have the best cell service. I expect him to post more in the evening when he has WiFi but don't know that for a fact.

This is part of Matt's first post about the wifi. Now I am getting confused on the wording where he says "don't know that for a fact".

Does he mean "don't know that RD has wifi" or "don't know that RD will post more even with wifi". My first impression is he doesn't know if RD will post more, but I can see the interpretation the other way.

Jeez, some simple wording could be Matt's downfall.

As for Matt possibily flipping town, we would get some information from that. We could look at the votes for squiggs, bizarro, and Matt and how they came in with explanations and take it from there. Pretty safe to say some / most mafia voted for Matt if he flips town.

[Wood]

At this point is there a lynch that tells us more than Matts? If we're going to flip we need to decide right away

I won't be surprised if he's town or mafia, I'm really unsure. His reply is believable

If we're going to go with this might as well get it over with. If we're going to flip I think I'd flip to RD since he hasn't been contributing and his death will tell us just as much as Matts would. There's also Stazzy who as puxlut mentioned, hasn't contributed and has had a couple different excuses

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Delgar

The possibilities are:

GP town RD town
GP town RD mafia
GP mafia RD mafia
GP mafia RD town

My analysis of the GP_Matt response:

-If he and RatherDashing were linked as townies, GP would have said so by now. They are thus not linked as townie.

-However, if GP were mafia, and GP knew that, he'd also want to deny any link as his death would then naturally lead to RD's death to follow.

-He's distanced himself from RD. Is this truth or an attempt at damage mitigation?

If GP was mafia and was lynched, RD would be the instant next kill, no excuse would matter at that point.

There is a chance he might be telling the truth, but I still don't know that it means we should lynch someone else. Day 1 kills are a crap shoot and right now, we have something that seems to be a higher percentage chance.

I am sticking with my vote for now, but will be checking in after work and maybe at lunch and am willing to be persuaded otherwise.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Wood

At this point is there a lynch that tells us more than Matts?

RatherDashing would tell us as much as GP_Matt's. Regardless of which one of them is lynched if they reveal mafia the other needs to be voted out the next day. However, RatherDashing is away until the weekend and even then it doesn't seem certain he can post.

At this point I agree one of them should be lynched, but I would prefer it be RatherDashing, don't know about the time constraints on getting that done though.