American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by GGG

Polling determines that it is a coin flip.

As to why I think that polling tells you what is going on in a race on a relative basis when there is movement outside the accuracy of the poll.

It’s also interesting to think about that an election is just a very large poll. It’s just the one that counts. You could hold the election on different days and in the right races we have recently had it could change the results. (Less likely with mail ins and early voting). But an election still isn’t a perfect sample of the will of the electorate.

I also like the nature of the problem. People have an opinion but you need to figure out how to get a representative sample. So in theory the information to know who is going to win is available however it’s nots possible to acquire.

The answer of it’s a coin flip is satisfying and shouldn’t be looked at as a failure. Recognizing that this election is not predicable in foresight but will be very predicable with hindsight once we know which markets matter this time is part of what polling gives us.

I also like the concept that you can guess right but that doesn’t make you good a predicting elections.

A coin flip is a random event.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

A coin flip is a random event.

An event with insufficient data to predict is indistinguishable from a random event.

[calculoso]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1849846748404916463

https://twitter.com/user/status/1849844186326897098

[Dion]

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by GGG

An event with insufficient data to predict is indistinguishable from a random event.

Exactly
So the polls are of absolutely no more value in predicting the outcome than my guess is. And equally as useless as my opinion

[GGG]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Exactly
So the polls are of absolutely no more value in predicting the outcome than my guess is. And equally as useless as my opinion

Not really, the polls predict that it’s very close. That in itself is of value when one half of the electorate is going to try to say that it was rigged if there candidate loses. Especially understanding that a small polling error within the margin of error of the polls and uniform accross the country takes this from close to landslide. Statistically knowing it’s not predictable is having far more information than guess it’s not predictable or guessing who’s going to win.

I go back to a comment Dino made of something like of course it’s close anyone could predict that it’s a two party system. But if that was your prior it would have been your prior for every previous election which would have been incorrect.

Really I think our fundemental difference here is I find evidence it’s a coin flip to be interesting and valuable where as you find that information useless.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Trump having control of nukes was terrifying the first time, but at least there were guardrails still in place and a few sane individuals in the WH who kept him in check. That won't be the case this time, as his entire administration will no doubt be filled with loyal MAGA lunatics. The world will be in for a rough ride if he gets back into power, with Canada likely getting the worst of it.

Trump is not going to use or threaten to use nukes. He wants to avoid wars, which is a good thing, but likely by letting other countries do whatever they want, which is a bad thing.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

So by 2028, the media in America will be similar to the media in Russia. Trump will have massive majority support simply because dissenting voices won't be heard by the public

Sadly we could be in the same boat if PP emasculates the CBC. What corporate media is going to push back?

[OldSam]

Really enjoyed the story about the 50+ nuns that were identified by the GOP as being non-existent voters. Most of them have lived at the monastary for decades, including a 107 year old. Someone said it was empty, so the GOP ran with it, no checking facts of course. I am not that religious, but that seems like a "you are going to hell" moment. The OP is claiming they are still checking it out. The sisters - fully intend to vote en masses - and I rather doubt the GOP will see any votes at all.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Trump is not going to use or threaten to use nukes. He wants to avoid wars, which is a good thing, but likely by letting other countries do whatever they want, which is a bad thing.

I agree, I actually think the odds of Trump wanting to or successfully deploying a nuke is very low, he is fundamentally a coward and would probably only try to drop a nuke on his own people or someone much weaker, and I think even the most red pilled crazy generals will show restraint there. But I do think a Trump presidency, could put the economy on shaking ground, cause the deaths and or suffering of millions unnecessarily, setback environmental protections in irreparable ways, sacrifice American leadership in global order and innovation, and likely will embolden other nuclear powers who are already growing in aggression.

I don't think it will be Trump, but I think a Trump re-election is a world where we are much more likely to see someone drop a nuke on someone.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by calculoso

https://twitter.com/user/status/1849846748404916463

https://twitter.com/user/status/1849844186326897098

"I won't oppose fascism because if the fascist wins anyway, that might possibly somewhat affect the already completely ridiculous amount of power and money I have" is a take certainly, but I doubt that's a real reason. Trump isn't going to take Bezos on, he's a coward.

Most likely he kinda wants Trump to win because the Democrats might crack down on his abuse of his monopoly. That's a much bigger issue for him.

In other news, the news are more and more obviously bought and paid for by the ultrarich, and that's really IMO the main reason why Trump is even in this race.

[puffnstuff]

Isnt Bezos gonna get hit worse by the trumpian tariffs? What with all the imported junk Amazon sells.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

Isnt Bezos gonna get hit worse by the trumpian tariffs? What with all the imported junk Amazon sells.

I don't think it affecrs Amazon much. They're so dominant in the marketplace that it doesn't much matter for them what the marketplace is anymore.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by #-3

I agree, I actually think the odds of Trump wanting to or successfully deploying a nuke is very low, he is fundamentally a coward and would probably only try to drop a nuke on his own people or someone much weaker, and I think even the most red pilled crazy generals will show restraint there. But I do think a Trump presidency, could put the economy on shaking ground, cause the deaths and or suffering of millions unnecessarily, setback environmental protections in irreparable ways, sacrifice American leadership in global order and innovation, and likely will embolden other nuclear powers who are already growing in aggression.

I don't think it will be Trump, but I think a Trump re-election is a world where we are much more likely to see someone drop a nuke on someone.

I’d argue the opposite, he’s threatened other nuclear powers with nukes multiple times and internally proposed using nukes on them.

As much as people are worried about Trump having a bunch of MAGA sycophants in his ear, he’s still going to want the best when it comes to stuff like the military, so while I think the threat of him using a nuke is a lot higher than anyone else using a nuke, I think he’ll still be controlled or well advised on the subject but his unpredictability will also be a deterrent to other countries.

It’s the same with the worry that he’ll end democracy. There are way too many people opposed to that, even in the Republican party, for that to happen without a civil-war level resistance

I don’t know if it’s a good or bad thing, but these serious end game scenarios people imagine are going to preceded by a lot of things that could be a lot more damaging and really aren’t getting as much airplay which seems strange to me. Americans aren’t just going to lay down.

It’s like talking about climate change and jumping right to “the end of humanity as we know it.” There’s a lot of bad before that, and a lot of opportunity to avoid it.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

Isnt Bezos gonna get hit worse by the trumpian tariffs? What with all the imported junk Amazon sells.

Tariffs work in Amazon's favor. Amazon gets a percentage of each sale and if prices rise as a result of the cost of tariffs being passed along to the consumer then the chunk of each sale Amazon takes goes up. The 2 million businesses that use Amazon marketplace and fulfillment are getting hammered by the fees Amazon imposes on those sales.

@ The Washington Post - I don't know where I heard this, but "Democracy dies in the dark."

[puffnstuff]

House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris said last night that North Carolina legislators should consider awarding their state's electors to Donald Trump before votes are counted, due to the impact of Hurricane Helene.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/1...ctors-00185520

Who needs voters when you can just try and do this instead.

[Paulie Walnuts]

I wish Trump did that Rogan interview earlier. I’ve seen bits of it and he clowned himself and sounded even more unhinged.

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1850206133740319108

Was not expecting Rogan to roast Donald.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

I wish Trump did that Rogan interview earlier. I’ve seen bits of it and he clowned himself and sounded even more unhinged.

Trump sounded dumb too

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It’s the same with the worry that he’ll end democracy. There are way too many people opposed to that, even in the Republican party, for that to happen without a civil-war level resistance

I think you're greatly overestimating the ability of non-MAGA America to fight back against MAGA America. Trump supporters are (generally speaking) much more heavily armed and combat trained than Trump's opponents. Any kind of uprising against Trump's regime is likely to be put down quickly and easily.

I don’t know if it’s a good or bad thing, but these serious end game scenarios people imagine are going to preceded by a lot of things that could be a lot more damaging and really aren’t getting as much airplay which seems strange to me. Americans aren’t just going to lay down.

It’s like talking about climate change and jumping right to “the end of humanity as we know it.” There’s a lot of bad before that, and a lot of opportunity to avoid it.

Is it fair to be worried about both the bad-before-that stuff and the endgame stuff?

-----
On another note, the Trump interview on Rogan now has over 16 million views and rising rapidly. By comparison, the Harris interview on Howard Stern got only 1.6 million views. My optimism for a Harris victory is starting to diminish.

But I'm hoping this is like the Cup final where the universe corrected itself at the last minute...