Ranking the Canadian Teams - Page 10 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

GGG · 02-19-2012, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dino7c

this is the only way teams should ever be ranked

They should be ranked by points however if you wanted to predict future results goal differential correlates more closely then current record in terms of predicting results.

Essentially a teams record in 1 goal games is somewhat random. It is only loosely correlated with the teams ability. So win loss being a discrete result it is subject to sample noise. Goal differential in much more of a continious variable has much less noise in it therefore is a better predictor of results.

jayswin · 02-19-2012, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jets4Life

Standings after February 19, 2012:

1. Vancouver (38-15-6)
2. Ottawa (30-22-8)
3. Calgary (28-22-9)
4. Toronto (29-24-6)
5. Winnipeg (29-26-6)
6. Montreal (24-26-10)
7. Edmonton (22-30-6)

The Canucks and Flames are on Fire, the Sens, Leafs, and Jets are fighting it out for a playoff spot, and the Oilers are still horrible.

That's incorrect. Calgary and Montreal are a toss-up (basically tied), so you should have Montreal ahead of Calgary based on goal differential. Other than that, you have the standings correct.

Cole436 · 02-19-2012, 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flameswin

That's incorrect. Calgary and Montreal are a toss-up (basically tied), so you should have Montreal ahead of Calgary based on goal differential. Other than that, you have the standings correct.

Jake · 02-19-2012, 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GGG

They should be ranked by points however if you wanted to predict future results goal differential correlates more closely then current record in terms of predicting results.

Essentially a teams record in 1 goal games is somewhat random. It is only loosely correlated with the teams ability. So win loss being a discrete result it is subject to sample noise. Goal differential in much more of a continious variable has much less noise in it therefore is a better predictor of results.

By saying a teams record in 1 goal games is "only loosely correlated with the team ability" it suggests there is some sort of regression that was done, and no relationship was found. Can you show that? I'm curious how "team ability" is quantified in the regression.

CaptainCrunch · 02-20-2012, 12:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flameswin

That's incorrect. Calgary and Montreal are a toss-up (basically tied), so you should have Montreal ahead of Calgary based on goal differential. Other than that, you have the standings correct.

What?

Calgary has 7 more points and have played one less game

GF and GA against differential makes no sense when the teams aren't close standing wise, you can make an argument if they were close in the standings. But right now the comparison is more Edmonton vs Montreal then Calgary versus Montreal.

puckluck · 02-20-2012, 12:18 AM

Whoosh..

the2bears · 02-20-2012, 12:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cole436

Really sure you didn't read the whole thread...

Sidney Crosby's Hat · 02-20-2012, 02:59 AM

Alphabetically, the rankings are still:

1. Calgary
2. Edmonton
3. Montreal
4. Ottawa
5. Toronto
6. Vancouver
7. Winnipeg

vilzeh · 02-20-2012, 03:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cole436

Check few pages back, and you'll see where that is coming from. 8)

Jets4Life · 02-20-2012, 03:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

Alphabetically, the rankings are still:

1. Calgary
2. Edmonton
3. Montreal
4. Ottawa
5. Toronto
6. Vancouver
7. Winnipeg

GGG · 02-20-2012, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jake

By saying a teams record in 1 goal games is "only loosely correlated with the team ability" it suggests there is some sort of regression that was done, and no relationship was found. Can you show that? I'm curious how "team ability" is quantified in the regression.

I will have to see if i can dig out that article agian. I dont remember how exactly they considered it. I think they used goal differential and found that teams with a higher positive goal differential had a small but statiscally significant better record in one goal games.

I will try to find it. It was quite good

Jets4Life · 02-29-2012, 11:02 PM

Standings after February 2012:

1. Vancouver (40-16-8)
2. Ottawa (34-23-8)
3. Winnipeg (30-27-8)
4. Calgary (28-24-11)
5. Toronto (29-28-7)
6. Montreal (24-30-10)
7. Edmonton (25-32-6)

Vancouver continues to dominate. Ottawa is red hot, Winnipeg and Calgary continue to battle for that final playoff spot in their respective Conferences, Toronto is choking, and Edmonton and Montreal have been horrible.

カナダ人です · 03-01-2012, 01:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jets4Life

Standings after February 2012:

1. Vancouver (40-16-8)
2. Ottawa (34-23-8)
3. Winnipeg (30-27-8)
4. Calgary (28-24-11)
5. Toronto (29-28-7)
6. Montreal (24-30-10)
7. Edmonton (25-32-6)

Vancouver continues to dominate. Ottawa is red hot, Winnipeg and Calgary continue to battle for that final playoff spot in their respective Conferences, Toronto is choking, and Edmonton and Montreal have been horrible.

Wow Ottawa seems really streaky. Could be a playoff dark-horse if they got on one of their rolls...?

Stampede2TheCup · 03-01-2012, 01:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Notorious Honey Badger

I don't recall the city of Winnipeg going up in flames after losing their team to the Red Wings. Or Portage and Main being torn apart after the loss to the Lions.

Vancouver sports fans are a special breed of contemptible losers.

Winnipeg can't go up in flames when it's under two feet of floodwater or two feet of snow.

Loyal and True · 03-13-2012, 09:38 AM

1. Vcr
2. Ott
3. Cgy
4. Wpg
5. Tor
6. Mtl
7. Edm

I'm pretty sure we can keep Montreal near the bottom now.

EDIT: Any updates, alphabetically?

troutman · 03-13-2012, 09:44 AM

Cgy
Que
Ott
Wpg
Tor
Edm
Van
Mtl

Textcritic · 03-13-2012, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loyal and True

1. Vcr
2. Ott
3. Cgy
4. Wpg
5. Tor
6. Mtl
7. Edm

I'm pretty sure we can keep Montreal near the bottom now.

Don't count them out just yet! Remember, they have a better goal differential than the Flames; this is the gold standard by which one separates good teams from those that are merely average.

Quote:

Originally Posted by VERVE

It was a toss up amongst Montreal, Ottawa and Calgary. It could have went Ottawa, Calgary and then Montreal. At the end I went with goal differential. Giving more credence to the old fashion stats of scoring more goals than letting them in would win more games...

jayswin · 03-13-2012, 12:46 PM

Hmmm, weird that this thread wasn't bumped by Jets fans, this time. I thought they said it was just a coincidence that it always gets bumped when they pass the Flames?

Gary83 · 03-13-2012, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VERVE

I feel Montreal is turning the corner after their debacle of firing everyone except the janitors. The extensive press coverage of non-french speaking coach must have further caused greater turmoil in the dressing room. The players were not playing well. Now it seems they are 6-3-1 with a four game winning streak albeit not against great teams but nonetheless and 5 points back of Flames. Carey Price is playing better and so is Subban... Like I said it was a toss up with Flames and Habs and in the end I went with goal diff.

lol

jayswin · 03-13-2012, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gary83

lol

I love the idiocy of stating "it was a toss up between the Flames and Habs" and "5 points back of the Flames" in the same post. Not that I think that poster even knows what drivel he's posting.