Iran

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by cam_calderon

Because it's my preference. I want the culture that I grew up in to be preserved, it aligns with my values and the culture of my family, going back generations.

Our cities are already overflowing, every major road is a car park, people can't get their kids into schools. It's a pretty reasonable position that we don't need every plane flying out of Mumbai to land here to add even more strain to a crumbling system.

I'll ignore the second bit because it's no really related, and debating immigration levels, types, sourcing, are all things that can be discussed reasonably, and some are solutions to those problems with thoughtful governance. But we can't really discuss that when the reason behind it is "I want what is comfortable to me and my personal situation at the exclusion of others also having that."

[WinnipegFan]

May I respectfully request that you take your childish bickering to a thread that is designed for it. Maybe a lefty vs righty kind of thing.

I would rather see more updates, if anyone has any, or actualy discussion of, Iran.

My family is currently safe, a number of bombs have fallen very close to their homes. However it has been more than a day and a half since our last contact.

They had a brief moment of hope when the SL, as they see it, faced his reckoning. They are hopeful that the war will cause real change but fear the cost. When I speak to them they understand that there will be cost, but letting the regime stand has an incredible cost as well. Cost here only referring to human life.

Untenable situation for them. All I do is send them positivity and support. I am not there, I am doing my best to doubt all media. So I listen and offer support, without opinion.

[Fuzz]

Fair enough, wrong thread.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Fair enough, wrong thread.

he is gone now anyway

[renny]

Originally Posted by cam_calderon

Show me where I said anything racist.

"Cultural Problems".

That's racist AF. You're literally saying people of other "cultures" are problematic. You need to check yourself. Just because "White Anglo Culture" is so dominant around the world, it doesn't make it better than other cultures.

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by WinnipegFan

May I respectfully request that you take your childish bickering to a thread that is designed for it. Maybe a lefty vs righty kind of thing.

I would rather see more updates, if anyone has any, or actualy discussion of, Iran.

My family is currently safe, a number of bombs have fallen very close to their homes. However it has been more than a day and a half since our last contact.

They had a brief moment of hope when the SL, as they see it, faced his reckoning. They are hopeful that the war will cause real change but fear the cost. When I speak to them they understand that there will be cost, but letting the regime stand has an incredible cost as well. Cost here only referring to human life.

Untenable situation for them. All I do is send them positivity and support. I am not there, I am doing my best to doubt all media. So I listen and offer support, without opinion.

All the best to you and your family. Incredibly scary situation there, I can’t imagine what it would be like to be living there.

[Drak]

Looks like 150 - 175 school girls were killed in that school bombing by Trump and Hegseth.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Drak

Looks like 150 - 175 school girls were killed in that school bombing by Trump and Hegseth.

You mean by “the good team”

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

You mean by “the good team”

Very unfortunate. What would an appropriate adjective be for the team that kills 30,000 of its own members?

[Mathgod]

It's entirely possible that more than one bad team exists.

[Manhattanboy]

Still think we should merge the two threads.

I heard a number today that there are at least 50,000 protesters from January currently imprisoned by the regime without trial.

EDIT. Unverified but relayed by a former prisoner.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Very unfortunate. What would an appropriate adjective be for the team that kills 30,000 of its own members?

Probably the same adjective we’d use for the team that killed 70,000.

It’s almost like killing innocent people is… bad.

[Doctorfever]

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/trump-says...233107741.html

President Donald Trump said Thursday Iran’s navy and air force are “gone” and suggested Tehran’s leaders are ready to make a deal. Trump also urged Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, military and police to lay down their arms, vowing “total immunity" from the U.S.

Are the allied forces that close to victory that they think the Iran military will accept this?

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/trump-says...233107741.html



Are the allied forces that close to victory that they think the Iran military will accept this?

Iran didn't have much of an air force, navy or air defence to start with. Their only realistic response was to spew ballistic missiles at its neighbours. It may have depleted much of those in the previous conflict with Israel and might not have many left. In any event, without any kind of air defence in the way, the US can hammer the launch sites making missile stockpiles pretty useless.

The question becomes is the Iranian military going to transition from a comfy relatively modern life into a guerilla style warfare and fight it out.

The Iranian army is also split into separate branches. There is the traditional army, which existed before the Ayatollahs. They are relatively secular in formation and may not actually support the Ayatollahs anymore. There is also the IRGC. The IRGC is a creation of the Ayatollahs and similar to the Gestapo. They are tasked with ensuring the Ayatollahs stay in power. They police both the population (in addition to the police force that isn't a traditional police force but also a paramilitary group) and the regular army. They have about 100k members but also have spies throughout regular parts of society and command larger volunteer based paramilitaries.

If Trump can convince the regular army to turn on the IRGC, it would mean the end of the regime.

That being said, Trump is a fool. And it's 100% on brand for him to just make an ultimatum that's totally detached from reality. It's extremely difficult to figure out what's actually going on in Iran. So who knows if he's anywhere close to actual success.

[Doctorfever]

https://apple.news/A39n-TDMfQwC6c0zvlFxXgA

“The expanding war in Iran entered its second week on Saturday amid renewed uncertainty about how or when hostilities will end, as U.S. President Donald Trump declared he would only accept Tehran's "unconditional surrender" and Israel traded fresh attacks with Iran and Lebanon.
Trump's comments ​on social media on Friday came hours after Iran's president announced that unnamed countries had begun mediation efforts, briefly raising the possibility, however faint, of a diplomatic resolution a week after #the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran.
"There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" Trump wrote. "After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before."”

Excerpt From
“Iran apologises to Gulf but war still rages across region”
Reuters
https://apple.news/A39n-TDMfQwC6c0zvlFxXgA
This material may be protected by copyright.

“At least 1,332 people have been killed in Iran since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on February 28, Iravani said, citing the Iranian Red Crescent ⁠Society.
The Lebanese health ​ministry has reported 123 people killed and 683 wounded as a result of Israeli attacks. Iranian attacks have killed 11 people in ​Israel since the war started, and at least six U.S. service members have been killed.
Two U.S. officials told Reuters that military investigators believed it was likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school that killed scores of children on the first day ​of the war. The investigators have not yet reached a final conclusion.”

Excerpt From
“Iran apologises to Gulf but war still rages across region”
Reuters
https://apple.news/A39n-TDMfQwC6c0zvlFxXgA
This material may be protected by copyright.

Wonder how much support US and Israel will have from citizens within Iran as the death count rises.

[TherapyforGlencross]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

https://apple.news/A39n-TDMfQwC6c0zvlFxXgA






Wonder how much support US and Israel will have from citizens within Iran as the death count rises.

That’s the entire problem. You cannot bomb a country to submission and expect people to be “pro-West” even when accounting that those same people are also anti-regime. It creates a dangerous paradox, even more so, when Trump is saying he wants a direct role in selecting the next leader.

[FlamesAddiction]

Just from listening to stories in the media, mostly from Iranian expats living in the West, I think many Iranians feel that it is a real catch 22. Supporting the military aggression against the regime there brings significant risk to the safety of their own people, but they are also completely screwed if it doesn't succeed and the regime survives. The regime has no qualms about purging their population and this could be the only chance in generations to end it.

People often talk about how the people and citizens should rise up and instigate the revolution organically, which is precisely what they have been trying to do for a long time. The bravery of their citizen population should never be questioned IMO.

I don't trust that Trump has the best interests of the Iranian people in mind here though. He will accept a more brutal regime if it means they at least cooperate with him.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by flamesaddiction

just from listening to stories in the media, mostly from iranian expats living in the west, i think many iranians feel that it is a real catch 22. Supporting the military aggression against the regime there brings significant risk to the safety of their own people, but they are also completely screwed if it doesn't succeed and the regime survives. The regime has no qualms about purging their population and this could be the only chance in generations to end it.

People often talk about how the people and citizens should rise up and instigate the revolution organically, which is precisely what they have been trying to do for a long time. The bravery of their citizen population should never be questioned imo.

I don't trust that trump has the best interests of the iranian people in mind here though. He will accept a more brutal regime if it means they at least pay him.

fyp

[Doctorfever]

https://apple.news/Az_Fat6bLQOyPbe-jcNww4g

“Iran's clerical leadership chose confrontation over compromise in appointing Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father, Ali Khamenei, a move regional officials say is a direct rebuke to U.S. President Donald Trump, who had declared the son "unacceptable"

“According to insiders, Mojtaba will face immense internal and external strain from a disaffected population and ​an escalating conflict, but is expected to move swiftly to consolidate power.
That will likely mean expanded authority for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, harsher domestic controls and sweeping repression to crush dissent.
"The world will miss ​the era of his father," a regional official close to Tehran told Reuters. "Mojtaba will have no choice but to show an iron fist... even if the war ends, there will be severe internal repression."

“A Gulf source familiar with regional government thinking said of ​Mojtaba’s appointment: “This tells Trump and Washington that Iran will not back down, they will fight on until the finish."
Salem, of the Middle East Institute, likened Iran’s trajectory to Iraq under Saddam Hussein after 1991 or Syria under Bashar al‑Assad after 2012 — governments that ​survived years of war and isolation but steadily lost control.
“They’re doubling down on the hard line,” Salem said. “Internally, it’s terrible — and deeply destabilising.””

Excerpt From
“Iran defies Trump, elevates Khamenei’s son Mojtaba as successor”
Samia Nakhoul, Parisa Hafezi
Reuters
https://apple.news/Az_Fat6bLQOyPbe-jcNww4g
This material may be protected by copyright.

Iran pushing back. Expect the conflict to continue for the near future, unfortunately.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

Iran pushing back. Expect the conflict to continue for the near future, unfortunately.

Never has there been regime change from air strikes. The enemy just goes under ground. It may work as a long shot if the regime is led by a gangster who would barter for exile and a bag of cash. This is a religious regime, like Hamas.

So was the plan that the Iranians would rise up? That the revolutionary guard would fracture and coup? Absolutely...and super dumb to think that would happen.

US needs ground troops, or they give up and it is a disaster for everyone. With Trump it is most likely the later, with him thinking he'll scare the regime into compliance. This is why congress needs involvement.