__________________ MMF is the tough as nails cop that "plays by his own rules". The force keeps suspending him when he crosses the line but he keeps coming back and then cracks a big case.
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I think people often conflate twoseparate conversations when talking about AI.
1) AI will displace significant amounts of labour in a relatively short time frame
2) AI has been over capitalized and under delivering what was promised. — AGI
Both of these can be true at the same time and likely are.
Yes there is likely a bubble that will burst and do significant economic harm but there will also be a few companies coming out of this that dominate the future and the labour make up of that future will be different.
I mostly agree, but I don't think too many people promised AGI by now. Even the ones promising it in 2026 feel ambitious, despite the fact their numbers are growing. A couple years ago it wasn't uncommon to have most estimates be a decade to several decades away. You don't hear many of those anymore (which isn't to say they're wrong, just not as numerous).
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigThief
It's amazing how wholly uninteresting that is.
As art or watching a show, I see what you might mean there. In general though, what's happening in robotics is staggering. You've got them doing things that people with PhD's in robotics had pegged as 50 years out just a couple years ago.
It's already overwhelming, and if we do happen to hit AGI in the next 1-5 years, progress should explode from there. Assuming they don't kill us. Which would also make videos like this pretty interesting.
Apple is a notable exception. They're spending very little, likely on the basis that either the investments will never pay off, or AI will just become a commodity that they can pay for down the road. Which is probably a decent bet for them.
Apple has recently signed with Google to provide an AI powered version of Siri using Gemini.
I had a dream over 25 years ago. I awoke, and wrote down some very important instructions. "Do not give robots knives" and fell back asleep. I've never forgotten that. Finally relevant.
Wow, how big is the project? I must be doing way easier stuff as I've pretty much stopped running into show-stopping problems and the extent of my efforts to keep things on track is to tell it to make notes and stay on track. The amount of stuff I'm 1-shotting is getting out of hand.
I find the issue of it being overly confident largely being dealt with by it being able to take a spin through whatever it's creating and test it out in a bunch of different configurations.
Well I don't think it's that large, but the core functionality is not common and so it has a great deal of difficulty with it. I've pretty well determined that I have to write that portion using organic brain matter.
It also made a god object (1400 lines of code... mmm!!!) and so I had to tell it to use proper SOLID principles to prevent this from happening again.
Yeah I mean if you're making yet another customer/user management module - what I call the address book - it does great with stuff like that.
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I think people often conflate twoseparate conversations when talking about AI.
1) AI will displace significant amounts of labour in a relatively short time frame
2) AI has been over capitalized and under delivering what was promised. — AGI
Both of these can be true at the same time and likely are.
Yes there is likely a bubble that will burst and do significant economic harm but there will also be a few companies coming out of this that dominate the future and the labour make up of that future will be different.
I've been feeling like there's a dotcom type bubble that will happen for AI. A bunch of players will fail, lots of investors will lose money and then the big players will obtain the IPs of the failed groups, consolidate and restructure to be even bigger... but "coincidentally" many of these players might be private and difficult to obtain ownership in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigThief
If that does it for you.
Agree with you. But I think some of us are wondering about the applications such as kicking down doors in dangerous environments, recovery applications and maybe even combat applications. Others might not take interest until those types of robots are running around with strap ons.
I've been feeling like there's a dotcom type bubble that will happen for AI. A bunch of players will fail, lots of investors will lose money and then the big players will obtain the IPs of the failed groups, consolidate and restructure to be even bigger... but "coincidentally" many of these players might be private and difficult to obtain ownership in.
Agree with you. But I think some of us are wondering about the applications such as kicking down doors in dangerous environments, recovery applications and maybe even combat applications. Others might not take interest until those types of robots are running around with strap ons.
Most likely investors will start to wonder where there return is, and given the massive amounts of money it takes to keep the show running, they start to have trouble raising funds. A US recession would also trigger this. They can't just tread water, so any that are burning tens of billions a year without a backstop will quickly fail. Interesting to consider with the context of SpaceX buying Xai...
Companies like Google will be fine. Microsoft will pull back more. I'm not sure a lot of consolidation makes sense, because some of the biggest and best are part of bigger companies. And what would be the point of buying, other than perhaps patents? But with so much room to innovate right now, I don't see patents being overly valuable. The private companies will mostly collapse. It's not as field you can tread water in for two or three years, you need to have billions to burn.
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Most likely investors will start to wonder where there return is, and given the massive amounts of money it takes to keep the show running, they start to have trouble raising funds. A US recession would also trigger this. They can't just tread water, so any that are burning tens of billions a year without a backstop will quickly fail. Interesting to consider with the context of SpaceX buying Xai...
Companies like Google will be fine. Microsoft will pull back more. I'm not sure a lot of consolidation makes sense, because some of the biggest and best are part of bigger companies. And what would be the point of buying, other than perhaps patents? But with so much room to innovate right now, I don't see patents being overly valuable. The private companies will mostly collapse. It's not as field you can tread water in for two or three years, you need to have billions to burn.
Reasoning... patents, yes. But less likely for development of your own thing, but more as barriers for others to try and create a competition to their own thing. Once many of these teams stop red lining to just snap up as much of the investor money available out there by throwing #### at the wall to see what sticks, I think then you'll see more focused development of useful things people want.
I already know of a team that is applying AI as a monitoring tool for healthcare, but they have to basically compete with teams making deep fake filters/slop media for funding to scale it up.
