The Risk of Picking First

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Owen15

I could also see where BPA is Verhoff. That could be great. But the last few games hammer home how challenged this team is offensively and talent wise. Not to say an elite dman isn’t great. But wouldn’t it be great if the red and white had the next Bédard or Celebrini?

You cheer for the Wings?

[Rick M.]

Older CP members will remember the Habs taking Doug Wickenheiser over Dennis Savard.

[jmac98]

I would think the only real risk in picking first overall is if you go off the board and leave McKenna or Stenberg available. If McKenna/Stenberg were selected and didn't pan out, I don't know that anyone would reasonably vilify the Flames for selecting them. But if you left either of those names on the board and picked another who didn't meet expectations, the organization would be looked down upon for trying to be the smartest person in the room type thing.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by jmac98

I would think the only real risk in picking first overall is if you go off the board and leave McKenna or Stenberg available. If McKenna/Stenberg were selected and didn't pan out, I don't know that anyone would reasonably vilify the Flames for selecting them. But if you left either of those names on the board and picked another who didn't meet expectations, the organization would be looked down upon for trying to be the smartest person in the room type thing.

And I can’t recall the last time”off the board” 1OA. Even the busts like Yakupov were accepted S the correct choice at the time.

[Pickle Juice]

For me its not the risk of picking first overall or trusting the scouting department, its the fact that I'm disappointed that the flames are in this situation with no generational talents on the board.

Now granted I am more of a casual fan and get my insight on player analysis mainly from Sandman and the World Juniors but this does not feel like a year to me where there is a superstars in the trenches. I also check out player comparisons and find it even more depressing for the top end draft talent.

Really hope I am wrong on this but that is where I am at with this draft

[Roko]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

And I can’t recall the last time”off the board” 1OA. Even the busts like Yakupov were accepted S the correct choice at the time.

Montreal did it in the Shane wright draft didn’t they?

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Roko

Montreal did it in the Shane wright draft didn’t they?

No. A few rankings had Slaf #1 including Bob Mackenzie and the Athletic.

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/draftcentre/2...nzie-1.1818580

[Steve's Stick]

I could be misunderstanding the OP, but I think I see the concern - as a hypothetical:

Let's says the Flames are expecting to end-up 2-5 OV, are certain about Lawrence - see him as a future elite center, it's a premium position which they desperately need - but then end up 1 OV

Does an org in that situation then go McKenna/Stenberg because of they are BPA (at least by consensus)? Do they concede from drafting need and their belief in Lawrence to take BPA?

Could they be better off taking the arguably lesser player in a premium position, but feel pressured given it's 1 OV to take the BPA?

We've seen teams prioritize need recently over BPA: MTL passed on Michkov for Reinbacher, CHI Levshunov over Demidov. But not to my recollection at 1OV.

This would be very difficult to do at 1OV.

However, as others have said, the Flames scouts have been outstanding under Conroy, so I will trust they have this thought through. The org can probably weight the value of the position relative to the skill and make the best value choice.

It is an interesting question though - you'd hate for the Flames to Yakupov this.

[McG]

I’d like to also point out that getting the first OA pick naturally (no lotto jump) means that you get the first pick in every subsequent round too. There are always some good players at the end of the first round.

In theory then, you would have Flames first OA and 33rd OA, plus the Vegas first plus any other picks that you can acquire. You let the scouts pick and you let hockey ops develop.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Steve's Stick

I could be misunderstanding the OP, but I think I see the concern - as a hypothetical:

Let's says the Flames are expecting to end-up 2-5 OV, are certain about Lawrence - see him as a future elite center, it's a premium position which they desperately need - but then end up 1 OV

Does an org in that situation then go McKenna/Stenberg because of they are BPA (at least by consensus)? Do they concede from drafting need and their belief in Lawrence to take BPA?

Could they be better off taking the arguably lesser player in a premium position, but feel pressured given it's 1 OV to take the BPA?

We've seen teams prioritize need recently over BPA: MTL passed on Michkov for Reinbacher, CHI Levshunov over Demidov. But not to my recollection at 1OV.

This would be very difficult to do at 1OV.

However, as others have said, the Flames scouts have been outstanding under Conroy, so I will trust they have this thought through. The org can probably weight the value of the position relative to the skill and make the best value choice.

It is an interesting question though - you'd hate for the Flames to Yakupov this.

I think most of your concern depends greatly on the idea that clubs review and rely somewhat on the "consensus" list and an assumption that those picks you mention were picked for position rather than BPA. Is it not just as likely that they viewed those as the best picks? Similarly, if the Flames think Lawrence is the best pick, they should pick him. I get that positional need may influence the pick to some degree (if 2 players are in a tier, they may prioritize one over another), but I would think picks are almost always BPA - according to that team's list.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

That's what we said in the Bennett draft, how did that work?

I guess this kind of works for / against the OP's argument.

In 2014, there were many debates on who should go first overall, and all 4 of the top 4 guys spent time on someone's 1st overall listings.

Had the Flames won the draft, and their scouts picked Bennett over Draisaitl, this would be a point for the Op's argument. Had they picked Draisaitl, then it would have been against.

I guess bottom line is, do you trust in your scouts more, or do you trust in other team's scouts to make the decision for you, and you settle for it, good or bad? I know I'd rather be the one controlling it rather than let luck decide through other team's picking. As some posters pointed out, letting other teams decide for you because you're scared to screw up seems like a defeatist attitude.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Rick M.

Older CP members will remember the Habs taking Doug Wickenheiser over Dennis Savard.

And it was considered wise at the time. Fans only wanted Savard because he was French Canadian. Wickenheiser was the consensus # 1 pick.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Roko

Montreal did it in the Shane wright draft didn’t they?

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

No. A few rankings had Slaf #1 including Bob Mackenzie and the Athletic.

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/draftcentre/2...nzie-1.1818580

Yeah and picking between the first and second ranked guys isn’t what I’d call “off the board”. Almost every other year has a couple guys closely bunched at the top. By off the board I mean picking someone no one would have considered a possibility.

[The Yen Man]

At the end of the day, luck really has a ton to do with it. The strongest argument for the Op's argument in recent memory is the Cale Makar draft. Avs lost the draft lottery to settle for Makar, and teams picked Hischier, Patrick, and Heiskanen instead. Hischier and Heiskanen were ok, but none of those guys compare to Makar, who Avs lucked out settling for.

Now, you can say if Avs won the draft, they would have still picked Makar, but only the Avs management know if that's true or not. I think they very well may have gone with a forward to complement MacKinnon's game.

[Bingo]

This whole discussion is made more interesting because of the tightness at the top compared to say a year ago.

It's become much more of a toss up.

I'm with many ... trust in your scouts, they've been great and hope you get the highest pick possible.

But I get what Owen is saying. If the Flames draft 2nd and not 1st and McKenna is gone and they wanted him it's out of their hands. Conversely if they draft McKenna 2nd overall and wanted him it's less pressure than drafting him first. If they never wanted McKenna it's less scrutiny to draft the guy you wanted all along.

You want the control as others have said, but there is a dynamic if you have one less option.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Bingo

This whole discussion is made more interesting because of the tightness at the top compared to say a year ago.

It's become much more of a toss up.

I'm with many ... trust in your scouts, they've been great and hope you get the highest pick possible.

But I get what Owen is saying. If the Flames draft 2nd and not 1st and McKenna is gone and they wanted him it's out of their hands. Conversely if they draft McKenna 2nd overall and wanted him it's less pressure than drafting him first. If they never wanted McKenna it's less scrutiny to draft the guy you wanted all along.

You want the control as others have said, but there is a dynamic if you have one less option.

For fans. Easier to say “well we couldn’t pick him anyway”.

If the actual decision is in your hands, you want the choice.

[Jason14h]

The only risk is winning the lottery in a year where there may not be a clear #1 or questions regarding McKenna and the #1 not being a center if it "wastes" one of your 5 year lottery wins

You can only win 2/5 times (Still very low odds of even doing that) so it would suck to win and move from second or third to first in a year like this, and then eventually win twice more and miss out on a 'better' prospect

The odds of that are so low I don't think it needs to be an actual worry, but it is technically is possible and a 'risk';

Just finish last naturally!

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

For fans. Easier to say “well we couldn’t pick him anyway”.

If the actual decision is in your hands, you want the choice.

100% this is a for the fan thing. I'd imagine any NHL team would prefer having their own choice. This is 100% fan copium to shield themselves from potentially being clowned on by other fan bases for missing out on a potentially much better player by picking the wrong player.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

And I can’t recall the last time”off the board” 1OA. Even the busts like Yakupov were accepted S the correct choice at the time.

If there were any actually great players in that draft, Yak wouldn't have gone number 1.

In an average draft, where would you hope you get players like Forsberg, Hertl, and Rielly?

They are the best players from that draft, and you wouldn't want them with top 5 picks in most years.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Steve's Stick

We've seen teams prioritize need recently over BPA: MTL passed on Michkov for Reinbacher, CHI Levshunov over Demidov. But not to my recollection at 1OV.

.

Montreal gets heat for passing on Michkov but I think it was largely because Michkov had made it known that he was only going to come over, earlier, for certain teams like Philly. He engineered the outcome he wanted.

For what it's worth I think the guy the Habs should have picked was Ryan Leonard. He would be an excellent part of what they are building.

Hard to criticize them though - they've made a lot of good moves.