The Risk of Picking First

[Owen15]

First thread created, so don’t crucify me.

I’m thinking about the 2022 draft. Shane Wright was pretty high up in a lot of pre draft discussion. After watching Slafkovsky last night it’s pretty clear he is the best of that draft. You might argue Nemec and Cooley fell in the right spots.

I’m terrified we don’t get it right. Is this the price of being a flames fan for 46 years.

Would we be better off emotionally picking second or third? The top 4 seem risky.

Can we have shiny new toys?

[Enoch Root]

How would picking 2nd or 3rd be any easier than 1st? No matter when you're picking - 1st, 2nd or 18th - you have the same pressure that you are trying to choose the best player available.

I'd rather be making that choice with the 1st pick, vs any other.

[BaconGuy]

I think trusting the scouts should be a given considering their recent track record. They clearly know what they are doing

[Owen15]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

How would picking 2nd or 3rd be any easier than 1st? No matter when you're picking - 1st, 2nd or 18th - you have the same pressure that you are trying to choose the best player available.

I'd rather be making that choice with the 1st pick, vs any other.

I suppose I’m saying someobe else will roll the dice on McKenna?

I appreciate your opinion Enoch Root, you are one of my favourite posters. Very level headed.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Owen15

I suppose I’m saying someobe else will roll the dice on McKenna?

I know people like to call it "Mission McKenna" but he might not even end up going first.

[Roko]

The “easiest” pick this year appears to be fourth. You take the last one of the top 4 predicted picks. Tynan Lawrence likely unless he drops off.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Roko

The “easiest” pick this year appears to be fourth. You take the last one of the top 4 predicted picks. Tynan Lawrence likely unless he drops off.

That's what we said in the Bennett draft, how did that work?

[1qqaaz]

Having the opportunity to take the risk is a privilege that would benefit the Flames.

We'll see if one of the players manages to separate themselves from the pack.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Owen15

I suppose I’m saying someobe else will roll the dice on McKenna?

Are you saying you don't want the Flames to roll the dice on McKenna?

It isn't an exact science, you have to pick someone, and some players don't work out. Are you arguing that you think McKenna is more risky? (a higher likelihood of busting?) That's a valid concern for sure.

[Jiggy_12]

I would trust the Flames to make the best pick in that spot. Recent draft history is favourable

[Roko]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

That's what we said in the Bennett draft, how did that work?

For us or Florida? I would still rather the chance to gamble on McKenna or Stenberg. I’m just saying to OPs point, fourth is the “safe” pick.

I hope we get a top 2 pick

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Roko

The “easiest” pick this year appears to be fourth. You take the last one of the top 4 predicted picks. Tynan Lawrence likely unless he drops off.

Never understood this argument - let's the the lowest ranked player of the group, because we are afraid of being wrong? So we just won't try?

That is unprofessional and defeatist.

[Owen15]

Originally Posted by Roko

The “easiest” pick this year appears to be fourth. You take the last one of the top 4 predicted picks. Tynan Lawrence likely unless he drops off.

CP will be unbearable for 10 years or more if our pick isn’t amazing.

We could wait to see what falls in our lap. Or we can man up and get the guy.

[browna]

Just as important for a top 3 pick is having an organizational and hockey ops situation where he can properly develop and get better.

Lots of teams still think a top 3 pick can be instantly inserted into lineups and everyone else will adapt and support around them. There are many failed top 10, nevermind first round picks, that get into a team who isn’t able to properly support and help develop that talent in the pros.

Flames getting rid of most of their respected and experienced/talented vets, is a point that need to be replenished once this team gains better talent, otherwise that talent is not fully utilized.

[Owen15]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Are you saying you don't want the Flames to roll the dice on McKenna?

It isn't an exact science, you have to pick someone, and some players don't work out. Are you arguing that you think McKenna is more risky? (a higher likelihood of busting?) That's a valid concern for sure.

That’s exactly my argument.

I’m not certain, but it’s not a stretch that a lot of smart hockey people had him as the top prospect.

At this moment I think he’s still the top prospect. But maybe gone from 80-20 to 60-40. More risk. So yes maybe a bit more concern boom or bust.

[Owen15]

Originally Posted by browna

Just as important for a top 3 pick is having an organizational and hockey ops situation where he can properly develop and get better.

Lots of teams still think a top 3 pick can be instantly inserted into lineups and everyone else will adapt and support around them. There are many failed top 10, nevermind first round picks, that get into a team who isn’t able to properly support and help develop that talent in the pros.

Flames getting rid of most of their respected and experienced/talented vets, is a point that need to be replenished once this team gains better talent, otherwise that talent is not fully utilized.

Browna, another of my favourite posters.

You know, I’m not a tanker. But I do cheer for Winnipeg and Vancouver to win these days. When I would never. Unless Oilers lol.

I feel like we need to be very careful trading everyone with a possible superstar potential pick coming.

Kadri I’m not so invested in. His interest in playing seems to be situational. I don’t think the current situation suits him. I think it shows. ?

I will legitimately shed a tear if and when we move Coleman. The only guy that made me cry when he left was Iggy. This guy is an amazing player and pro. That’s going to hurt.

He’s the kind of guy (Backs too) I would want around a young team.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Owen15

That’s exactly my argument.

I’m not certain, but it’s not a stretch that a lot of smart hockey people had him as the top prospect.

At this moment I think he’s still the top prospect. But maybe gone from 80-20 to 60-40. More risk. So yes maybe a bit more concern boom or bust.

Fair. But I don't think you can be successful by making the safe pick all the time, especially at the top of the draft.

Fortune favours the bold

[PepsiFree]

Scared money don’t make money.

[Owen15]

You should always switch in the "Monty Hall Problem" because it doubles your chances of winning from 1/3 to 2/3; your initial pick has a 1/3 chance of being right, so the other two doors combined hold a 2/3 chance, and the host's action of revealing a goat concentrates that 2/3 probability onto the single remaining unopened door, making switching the statistically superior strategy.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

That's what we said in the Bennett draft, how did that work?

If Florida had the 4th pick in that draft instead of us, it's likely a home run for them. Just didn't work out for him here.