How did insiders know that bitcoin was going to take a dump?
For the last few years Bitcoin has basically behaved like a slightly more volatile tech stock. With very few exceptions, if the Nasdaq is up, Bitcoin is up, and if the Nasdaq is down, then Bitcoin is down.
For the last few years Bitcoin has basically behaved like a slightly more volatile tech stock. With very few exceptions, if the Nasdaq is up, Bitcoin is up, and if the Nasdaq is down, then Bitcoin is down.
I see it:
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I'd hope so, given that BTC has averaged a ~70% correlation to the NASDAQ the last few years. Though obviously a linear total return chart is an awful way to judge correlation, as you can see from two things that have a near perfect correlation but different amounts of leverage:
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Sure, you going to bet $192 million on a 70% correlation?
Well the bet happened. So either they bet on it for factors that the market was already aware of, or they bet with inside information hoping that Bitcoin would move with the stock market as it usually does.
Which do you think is a more sound strategy? You can't say the idea of betting on something with a 70% correlation is outlandish and risky if the alternative is betting the same amount on the same thing, but without the benefit of inside information.
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Also are you agreeing with the poster then? That this was a sure bet because of inside information?
Sure bet? No, I wouldn't say that. And who knows if this investor had inside information.
But if I did have inside information about a significant tariff announcement and I wanted to profit off it, an unregulated, anonymous market that is heavily correlated with the NASDAQ would be a lot smarter way to do it than through traditional investments.
And it doesn't take a genius to predict that the market would react negatively to Trump's announcement. Look what happened in April with the "Liberation Day" stuff. Bitcoin dropped almost 15% over a 2-3 day period before rebounding.
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I have been deploying a very boring covered call strategy the last few weeks on SPY and QQQ, and I've been pulling in about $1,000 USD a week. Last two weeks were pretty great for it, in fact, being sort of up and down the whole time.
This past week, my covered call strikes got blown past so hilariously badly, it was like a Pontiac Acadian racing a Hayabusa.
Capped gains better than no gains, but I could have made an extra $2,000 over the short calls by just buying and holding the QQQ shares. Thankfully, the calls will settle Friday night and I'll have powder dry for whatever the hell happens on November 1st with that orange bastard's new tariffs.
Oh he’s spot on. I have stuck with growth ETFs for the majority of my accounts, and don’t use covered call ETFs. I’ve doing my own covered calls on 7DTE, trying to take advantage of volatility and theta, while ensuring I’d have free capital before November 1.
I used to love watching Options Action on CNBC on Friday evenings. I find those strategies fascinating, but I would never trust myself to execute it correctly.
I tried to enter a stop-loss on a stock in Questrade and ended up liquidating my position.
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