Edmonton is No Good XII: "I Dunno.. it's Just Not Good."

[BigThief]

Very rarely do player play less than during a contact year but it is going to be a major distraction during the season as every media member in every city for every outlet asks the same question while attempting to put their cute spin on it.

[browna]

Again, my theory is him and the Oilers negotiated a few years ago that he was going to play out this contract and leave. No drama, no negotiations and McDavid would tread carefully in answering questions (“I want to win in Edmonton” - of course, until you aren’t in Edmonton anymore). And the team talk about “Hoping to sign” (what else can they say?) to keep up appearances.

He wasn’t happy with his early Oiler years, and, more importantly, wants to play somewhere east in his career and the Oilers had their shot.

That understanding between the sides gave the Oilers full notice to try and win in the subsequent years until he did leave and allowed the Oilers to plan for future (Driasital).

I guess things could change but I doubt it. Could he sign a short term deal? Maybe but wasting another few years of his prime when his intention since before being drafted was to play east, and all the work in the decision to say he’s playing out this contract?

How he departs and how to minimize the distraction in the last season is also likely already been discussed so will see how it plays out. Oilers have a lot of the media in their pockets usually so they can help craft the message.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by browna

Again, my theory is him and the Oilers negotiated a few years ago that he was going to play out this contract and leave. No drama, no negotiations and McDavid would tread carefully in answering questions (“I want to win in Edmonton” - of course, until you aren’t in Edmonton anymore). And the team talk about “Hoping to sign” (what else can they say?) to keep up appearances.

He wasn’t happy with his early Oiler years, and, more importantly, wants to play somewhere east in his career and the Oilers had their shot.

That understanding between the sides gave the Oilers full notice to try and win in the subsequent years until he did leave and allowed the Oilers to plan for future (Driasital).

I guess things could change but I doubt it. Could he sign a short term deal? Maybe but wasting another few years of his prime when his intention since before being drafted was to play east, and all the work in the decision to say he’s playing out this contract?

How he departs and how to minimize the distraction in the last season is also likely already been discussed so will see how it plays out. Oilers have a lot of the media in their pockets usually so they can help craft the message.

Thing is, they have these kinds of 'Gentleman's Agreements' in Soccer all the time...they almost never work out.

The problem stemming from...'who did he have said agreement with? Are they still in a position to honour that agreement? Was that 3 or 4 management teams ago?'

Things like that.

[cam_wmh]

I wonder if he considers that if his future team acquires him via trade, how that would affect their winning potential (depth/prospects etc). VS, signing July 1, 26. It would crush the Oilers, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[BigThief]

Originally Posted by browna

Again, my theory is him and the Oilers negotiated a few years ago that he was going to play out this contract and leave..

What type of insane theory is this?

[browna]

Originally Posted by Locke

Thing is, they have these kinds of 'Gentleman's Agreements' in Soccer all the time...they almost never work out.

The problem stemming from...'who did he have said agreement with? Are they still in a position to honour that agreement? Was that 3 or 4 management teams ago?'

Things like that.

Well the “agreement” isn’t anything more (IMO) than McDavid saying years in advance to the Oilers that he wasn’t going to renew with the Oilers when this contract is up.
Gave the Oilers the chance to plan the years they had left with him and how to figure things out after he’s gone.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by browna

Again, my theory is him and the Oilers negotiated a few years ago that he was going to play out this contract and leave. No drama, no negotiations and McDavid would tread carefully in answering questions (“I want to win in Edmonton” - of course, until you aren’t in Edmonton anymore). And the team talk about “Hoping to sign” (what else can they say?) to keep up appearances.

He wasn’t happy with his early Oiler years, and, more importantly, wants to play somewhere east in his career and the Oilers had their shot.

That understanding between the sides gave the Oilers full notice to try and win in the subsequent years until he did leave and allowed the Oilers to plan for future (Driasital).

I guess things could change but I doubt it. Could he sign a short term deal? Maybe but wasting another few years of his prime when his intention since before being drafted was to play east, and all the work in the decision to say he’s playing out this contract?

How he departs and how to minimize the distraction in the last season is also likely already been discussed so will see how it plays out. Oilers have a lot of the media in their pockets usually so they can help craft the message.

Pure fan fiction. He's just like every other player. Signs deals, plays hockey, and his desire to stay where he is or move on is a fluid situation as each contract comes up.

[jayswin]

That's why even the "he's 100% going to Toronto after this contract" that was started here about two years out before two straight Stanley cup finals seems really weird to me.

[indes]

The whole "short contract to win" rumour seems dumb to me too. I think I posted it earlier but:

2x16 + 8x18 = 176m, with 144m of risk. Guaranteed 32m.

7x16 + 3x16 = 160m with 48m of risk. Guaranteed 112m.

Who in their right mind would risk 144m (82%) for an extra 10% of earnings? I don't know anything for sure but I highly doubt anyone would advise McDavid to take that kind of risk to play the same hockey. IMO the only way he signs with the Oilers is for 8x16+.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by indes

The whole "short contract to win" rumour seems dumb to me too. I think I posted it earlier but:

2x16 + 8x18 = 176m, with 144m of risk. Guaranteed 32m.

7x16 + 3x16 = 160m with 48m of risk. Guaranteed 112m.

Who in their right mind would risk 144m (82%) for an extra 10% of earnings? I don't know anything for sure but I highly doubt anyone would advise McDavid to take that kind of risk to play the same hockey. IMO the only way he signs with the Oilers is for 8x16+.

Not to mention the fact that a 16x7 in real annual value would probably look something like 24,23,17,16,12,12,12, and if you accrue investment returns at like 6% on the extra money carried over the first 6 years it's like another $5M, over 10 years an earlier front loaded contract would end up making half the difference up.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by indes

The whole "short contract to win" rumour seems dumb to me too. I think I posted it earlier but:

2x16 + 8x18 = 176m, with 144m of risk. Guaranteed 32m.

7x16 + 3x16 = 160m with 48m of risk. Guaranteed 112m.

Who in their right mind would risk 144m (82%) for an extra 10% of earnings? I don't know anything for sure but I highly doubt anyone would advise McDavid to take that kind of risk to play the same hockey. IMO the only way he signs with the Oilers is for 8x16+.

It’s be more like “the Oilers refuse an 8 year sign and trade, so for an 8 year deal I have to sign a short term it’s the team I actually want to play for”. Not really a risk/reward thing, just maxing the term as best he can. And given he hasn’t had a major injury since his rookie year, I doubt he’s that worried.

[Huntingwhale]

Who was that poster who all but super-guaranteed McD would not sign an extension this summer due to insider sources who had confirmed it with him personally? I pray they are correct.

[CedarMeter]

dissentowner

[#-3]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

It’s be more like “the Oilers refuse an 8 year sign and trade, so for an 8 year deal I have to sign a short term it’s the team I actually want to play for”. Not really a risk/reward thing, just maxing the term as best he can. And given he hasn’t had a major injury since his rookie year, I doubt he’s that worried.

Or he's worried that if he agreed to a sign and trade with the Oiler, that they would go all Edmonton on him and re-neg on the trade after he signs.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by indes

The whole "short contract to win" rumour seems dumb to me too. I think I posted it earlier but:

2x16 + 8x18 = 176m, with 144m of risk. Guaranteed 32m.

7x16 + 3x16 = 160m with 48m of risk. Guaranteed 112m.

Who in their right mind would risk 144m (82%) for an extra 10% of earnings? I don't know anything for sure but I highly doubt anyone would advise McDavid to take that kind of risk to play the same hockey. IMO the only way he signs with the Oilers is for 8x16+.

In your two examples it’s far cheaper to insure the 8x18 which carries only 2 years of injury risk vs the 3x16 at the end which carries 7 years of performance an injury risk. You also can get full max cap the for those 2 years where it would be more difficult to get the full max cap on the 7 or 8. Or if you think he can get max Salary on the long term deal then getting two extra years of cap inflation helps a lot.

You also have the cheater years on the back end of the contract pushing more money forward in time.

An insured two year deal likely maximizes career earnings.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by #-3

Not to mention the fact that a 16x7 in real annual value would probably look something like 24,23,17,16,12,12,12, and if you accrue investment returns at like 6% on the extra money carried over the first 6 years it's like another $5M, over 10 years an earlier front loaded contract would end up making half the difference up.

18,18, 24,23,18, 17,16,12, 12, 12 is more than 24, 23, 17, 16, 12,12,12, 16,16,16.

Having those extra years on the bed being higher earning years decreases the value of the deal more than accelerating the 1st two earning years. So going short term avoids stranding that money.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Originally Posted by #-3

Or he's worried that if he agreed to a sign and trade with the Oiler, that they would go all Edmonton on him and re-neg on the trade after he signs.

Oilers has a well documented organizational history of cowardly duplicity. Never take them at their word.

[BigThief]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Who was that poster who all but super-guaranteed McD would not sign an extension this summer due to insider sources who had confirmed it with him personally? I pray they are correct.

The same one that guaranteed Gaudreau was staying due to knowing the Gaudreau family personally. (Via their twitter)

[GioforPM]

Kids, we just got over a different thread derailment. Don't start a new one.

[Incogneto]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

More chat in Oilers Nation about signing Carter Hart. Gotta keep that no goodness quota up.

Very good chance he will be signing in Carolina. He does NOT want to be under the microscope like any Canadian team.

I have this as an e3 from a reliable source.