We've seen this story a million times before though. A new crop of prospects everyone is really high on and the majority never pan out. Parekh needs to pan out. If he doesn't they are really in tough. Hopefully one or two other guys surprise. The rest will like be role players or never make much noise. If they would just bite the bullet and draft high for the next 2 or 3 drafts they might actually find their next core and hopefully have some depth to surround them with. These late 1sts likely aren't going to get you stars though.
Short of some sort of freak injury, there is next to zero probability that Parekh will not pan out. And there is a very high probability that more than one of Misa, Reschny, Basha, Brzustewicz, Gridin, Honzek, Morin, Suniev, Mews, and Potter will be more than role players.
WRT late 1st round picks, I suspect that Potter will have a more memorable career than half of the players drafted ahead of him.
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I'm actually really high on our prospect pool. I think Zayne falling to us could end being huge. Wolf if he is consistent is a top 10 goalie in the league.
I predict that several GMs are going to end up kicking themselves for not taking Parekh before 9th.
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I also like Coronato, although I believe he ends up being a 2nd liner.
I think he has enough scoring ability to be a complimentary player on a good 1st line. Pair him with a real #1 C, and he might pop 40 goals. He won't be the straw that stirs that particular drink, but he'll be a big ingredient in the drink itself.
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I like Bru on defense as a 2nd liner in the future. I like our picks in the draft this year as well.
Agreed.
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I also think between our top couple picks in this year's draft and Frost, one of them is likely to develop into a solid 2nd line center.
Also agreed. It seems to me that Reschny is just a little too small and a little too slow to have gone in the top 10 of this draft. If he bulks up a little and works his tail off with Danielle Fujita, he could turn out to be a real steal.
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Our biggest need is a 1st line center. Unless you are Vegas, the only way you get those is near the top of the draft. I think a top line center and winger are our biggest needs
Mostly agreed. First-line centres do come out of later in the draft, but they tend to take longer to develop. The Flames don't have a MacKinnon in the system, but they might very well have a Point. Add enough beef on the back end to make up for being smallish up front, and you can get something that begins to resemble what Tampa and Florida have done. I suspect that's part of the rationale behind drafting Mace'o Phillips.
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It isn't all dire, I actually like a lot of what we are doing. I just hope we tank a bit to get some elite forwards.
I expect a correction after overachieving this year, especially if Andersson and another vet get moved out this summer (which I also expect). I don't think it will be necessary to actively tank to get in the vicinity of the #5 pick. I just think there are too many truly awful teams to put the Flames in the running for DFL.
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You think our 16th and 32 picks moved us up significantly in the rankings ??
Especially against teams with top 5-8 picks in the draft ?
Honestly this board is a little delusional with the quality of our prospects.
First of all no, the 16th and 32nd picks aren't enough to significantly change a team's rankings. Normally. But this was a weird draft because several teams had multiple 1st round picks. The top 3 were NYI, SJS and CHI - SJS and CHI are both in every top 5 list, so they don't change. And NYI have no prospects at all, so we remain well ahead of them.
Then there is a 2nd tier, with NSH, PHI, PIT, CBJ and UTH, who also got more draft capital than CGY. The Flames were well ahead of PHI and PIT, before the draft, so likely stayed ahead of them. For NSH, CBJ and UTH, they were ranked similarly to CGY, depending on taste and criteria, so for the sake of argument, let's say they were ahead and remain ahead.
So 5 teams that were ahead of the Flames did as well or better than us in the draft. The Flames gained on all the others.
Second, you have to factor in progression, and graduation. The Flames had a flat out phenomenal year with respect to progression: Parekh, Mews, Gridin, Battaglia, Suniev, Brzstewicz, and Basha all showed really good progression, and will score higher this year.
As for graduation, the only player the Flames had was Wolf, which is a big subtraction obviously, but every team that is at or near the top loses players to graduation, often several. The Flames won't lose ground in that regard, and will probably gain ground on a few.
So when looked at a little more closely, yes, the Flames are clearly moving up the ladder, and this draft definitely helped with that, and it is very realistic to assume we've moved into the top 10 on many lists.
It's okay to have positive thoughts and viewpoints about the Flames - and it doesn't automatically make us delusional.
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I said not top 10 and your argument is might sneak into 7-9 range . Wow so far off ! Maybe 1 whole spot !
And honestly I see them more in 10-12 range but at that point it’s a rounding error
And people are delusional with the quality of our prospects / projections . People project every pick to work out . A bottom 10 first rounder has about a 30% chance of even being an average NHL player - let alone the 2nd round picks
Why are you always so damn negative about everything?
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Location: I'm somewhere where I don't know where I am
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Originally Posted by Burning Beard
Some of you guys should set up a spreadsheet with all of your grievances so you can just copy and paste it a few times a day. With you typing it out so many times carpal tunnel is a serious concern.
They do that already
Plus
They create multiple accounts to post them, discuss the merits and thank themself
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Why are you always so damn negative about everything?
It’s just where sports fandom rhetoric is in its current evolution. Fans who know little (at least as little as anyone else, which is the lot of us) think their opinion is somehow more interesting/valid if it is negative or a critique.
This is because the critic/commentator is a proper job and one that (sadly) has devolved into the negative because sparking those reactions creates more views/clicks. It’s become their job to draw that attention, and it’s the cheapest way to do it, so a certain segment of fans who don’t understand why that happens parrot that kind of rhetoric because they link it to more valid/reputable opinion holders (and think, by using the same rhetoric, they’ll be seen that way).
Those fans then think that calling others “delusional” masks their own delusions and limitations, but they’re rarely bringing anything more intelligent or insightful than anyone with a passing interest in the sport could produce.
Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.
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I expect we will move up slightly in the rankings. Yes we has some prospects graduate. We also didn't pick top 10. But we had a lot of picks this draft. Some of our prospects (Parekh, Griden, etc) should have climbed. Plus, the success Conroy has had drafting will add some credibility to the picks we made.
I don't think we will take a massive jump as we lack the star power that comes with high picks. But I think we will shift up a spot or two in most rankings.
The simple reason the fan base is negative is because they have followed the team for the last 2 decades. 3 playoff series wins in 20 years is dreadful.
This would be like asking a Detroit Lions fan before the last couple years why they are negative.
The simple reason the fan base is negative is because they have followed the team for the last 2 decades. 3 playoff series wins in 20 years is dreadful.
This would be like asking a Detroit Lions fan before the last couple years why they are negative.
It’s a choice to focus on being negative because of things that have already happened that you can’t control
And it’s also a lame excuse
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Why are you always so damn negative about everything?
It’s not negative - it’s statistics and odds
2nd rounders have a 10-20% chance of even making 100 games in the nhl .
Late firsts - 20+ are around 30%
That’s not being stars - that’s making the NHL and carving out any sort of a career
So when people are slotting in all our 2nd and 3rd rounders , and our mid and late firsts as our go forward teams and saying we are short 1 player - it statistically is delusional
The same fans then say how SJ and Chicago will be bad for a decade despite having better prospects than us . I guess their prospects will be all the ones to fail and ours will all hit
This team has a good - not great - prospect base right now . There is very little star level talent though . We can hope some of these guys develop into star level quality - but the odds are more won’t even make the NHL .
Our 1st rounders this year have a better chance of never playing then being impact 2nd liners statistically . Obviously scouting and development play a part it isn’t completely random- but the odds are still very low at development into an above average or star level player
There’s a reason 45 players get taken before our 2nd rounders . And of those 45 less then half will end up even having a career
If we get 2 top 6 forwards out of our current crop that is a success . If we find 2 top 4 D (Parekh looks like a safe bet ) that is a success. A few more might end up on your lower lines or 5/6 D if you’re lucky
We are still missing a ton of top end talent and thinking we’re developing 4-5 top 6 forwards and 3-4 top 4 D out of what we currently have is statistically astronomically unlikely
It seems this is dragging on more than other players like tires before?
Hamilton was traded quickly. Dobson was as well. Wonder if it’s because it’s not a futures deal holding it up.
Hamilton and Dobson were quite young in need of a second contract.
Andersson is relatively older in need of a UFA contract, and has complete control of his destiny (at least insofar as to whether he will sign a contract or not, or eventually go to UFA).
Huge difference, the Andersson trade by definition is much more complicated.
the super negative crowd always fascinates me. Being that negative as a fan sounds extremely tiring. Where's the fun?
What a lot of people on this board classify as “super negative” is anyone who doesn’t think Conroy is the greatest GM , that we don’t have the best scouts in the NHL finding us every hidden superstar , that winning culture isn’t actually that important , and that every Flames player will develop into a star !
Personally I didn’t find the team very fun to watch this season . Low scoring , boring hockey being led by vets who won’t have any long term impact on this teams success (unless they are traded for assets !)
Watching Cornato was fun . Obviously Wolf is fun . And getting behind a playoff push was more fun then just watching a movie instead of they were out
You can also have fun watching the team and hope for the best when they are playing , and see the holes/ potential flaws in where they want to get to based on their current roster . Those aren’t mutually exclusive
As I’ve said I think Conroy know this and would agree . I think he tried to be bottom ish of the league last year and get one of the top level prospects we need . The team surprised and played over their heads so he rolled with it .
And I think he’ll try again this year (and his inactivity in the offseason seems to support that notion ) to get a high level Prospect to add to the pool. We are 3 high level prospects and more 2/3rd round bullets away from a proper prospect pool to start moulding into a new core
