Tensions in the Middle East

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I don't think this will trigger a global conflict. Not that a global is out of the question, but I don't think this will be the cause. I think it could trigger a revolution in Iran though.

It's kind of fallen out of the news cycle, but there are still routine demonstrations and the public is becoming less religious. I think it's only a matter of time until the regime there falls. I just hope that it isn't a prolonged ordeal with a lot of suffering. The people there deserve so much better.

Iran doesn't have the capability to retaliate on Iran in a way that would result in a full-scale invasion. Plus, USA is chomping at the bit to attack Iran (with Israeli and maybe Saudi financial help?) - again, not an invasion, but some cruise missile action.

Iran wants to be a regional power, and nukes would give them legitimacy as well as protection; they cannot compete with Israel in conventional and nuclear deterrence.

We could see more subversion efforts in Iran against the Regime, but typically existential threats have a way of uniting people against a common enemy

[Sylvanfan]

Isn't Russia also make plans to move into the Baltic states and claim back some of those. I think I read or heard that Ukraine is like War 9 that Russia has launched over the last decade.

With the US taking less and less interest in Global affairs, this is going to be a fascinating region to watch.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Taiwan is next.

I see the situation as needing a miracle to be turned around for the present date to not be included in a future history book date range of WW3.

Spoiler!

Just track to see when Republicans start short selling Nvda stock.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Bonded

They are also the most likely to drop a nuke on each other imo

Maybe, but I personally think the US are most likely to do it a 2nd time before any other country does. Especially now as more and more countries are pushing back against US hegemony and America struggles in an effort to maintain it.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Haven't people been saying that since 2022?

More like 1950

Some notable wars since the dawn of the atomic age:

* Korean War

* Cuban Revolution

* Suez Crisis

* Six-Day War

* Congo Crisis

* Vietnam War

* Yom Kippur War

* Indo-Pakistani War (1965)

* Warsaw Pact Invasion of Czechoslovakia

* Angolan Civil War

* Lebanese Civil War

* Soviet-Afghan War

* Iran-Iraq War

* Lebanon War (1982)

* Gulf War

* Bosnian War

* First Chechen War

* Afghan War

* Iraq War

* Lebanon War (2006)

* Syrian Civil War

* Russo-Ukrainian War

* War Against the Islamic State

* Yemeni Civil War

* Russian Invasion of Ukraine



Not sure how these attacks on Iran are any more likely to provoke World War 3 than any of those previous wars.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

More like 1950

Some notable wars since the dawn of the atomic age:

* Korean War

* Cuban Revolution

* Suez Crisis

* Six-Day War

* Congo Crisis

* Vietnam War

* Yom Kippur War

* Indo-Pakistani War (1965)

* Warsaw Pact Invasion of Czechoslovakia

* Angolan Civil War

* Lebanese Civil War

* Soviet-Afghan War

* Iran-Iraq War

* Lebanon War (1982)

* Gulf War

* Bosnian War

* First Chechen War

* Afghan War

* Iraq War

* Lebanon War (2006)

* Syrian Civil War

* Russo-Ukrainian War

* War Against the Islamic State

* Yemeni Civil War

* Russian Invasion of Ukraine



Not sure how these attacks on Iran are any more likely to provoke World War 3 than any of those previous wars.

The overall chaos and instability of the present moment, made exponentially worse by the unreliability of the United States, who just a few months ago declared a trade war on the entire planet.

IMO.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I've known some really wonderful Persians in my lifetime.

Without exception they've all hated the current rulers of Iran with an abject fury I wouldn't have thought possible given how nice they were.

If I see one more post implying Iranians are pleased with what’s happening because of their hatred of the government, I’m going to lose my ####.

[bluejays]

Off topic question, why do Iranians refer to themselves as Perians? Persia doesn't exist anymore. Genuinely curious?

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Bonded

They are also the most likely to drop a nuke on each other imo

Deterrence is about to get put to the test.

The Americans and the Soviets were rivals, and certainly both were scared of what the other could do to them.

But even at the height of the Cold War, they both seem like a couple of billionaires with a grudge.

India and Pakistan ####ing HATE each other with the fire of a thousand suns, and just happen to have 342 suns in bombs between them.

When one of them decides that’s close enough, it’s going to be everybody’s problem in a big hurry.

[_Q_]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Off topic question, why do Iranians refer to themselves as Perians? Persia doesn't exist anymore. Genuinely curious?

Persian is the ethnic group, Iranian is the nationality. The majority of Iranians are Persian, but not all. There are Arab, Turkmen, Kurdish and other Iranians. Likewise, there are Persians in Afghanistan and Turkmenistan.

[Sainters7]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Off topic question, why do Iranians refer to themselves as Perians? Persia doesn't exist anymore. Genuinely curious?

Given Iran falls within the traditional centre of the Persian Empire, I'd imagine they're proud of that history, so it's a nod to the former largest empire in world history to that point. Until 1935, that was their name.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

If I see one more post implying Iranians are pleased with what’s happening because of their hatred of the government, I’m going to lose my ####.

I certainly didn't mean to imply that, at all actually.

The current government of Iran is mistreating the citizens, but Israel bombing them certainly doesn't help with that.

It's quite possible for everyone involved to be doing bad things - they don't offset.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

And they’re correct.

When do you think World War 2 began?

Because it started in 1930 when the Japanese invaded Manchuria.

Ukraine/Russia.

Israel/Iran.

India/Pakistan.

It’s on.

India and Pakistan have had a ceasefire since May 10th.

I also struggle to see how Israel and Iran could even theoretically fight an actual war. The countries are 1000+ km away from each other, they'd have to cross at least two countries to get to each other, and neither has anywhere near the kind kind of airpower to bomb the other into submission unless they start lobbing nukes, which seems unlikely. What would be the endgame of either side be in a war neither side could win?

Unless the US joins in, they probably just keep throwing missiles at each other for a while until there's a ceasefire. Much the same as between India and Pakistan. (I guess you can call that a war, but it wouldn't be what most people think of when they use the word.)

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

If I see one more post implying Iranians are pleased with what’s happening because of their hatred of the government, I’m going to lose my ####.

Almost all of the Persians/Iranians in the West today fled Iran when the clerics took over and loathe the regime that runs the country today. I imagine Iranians in Iran have a different outlook.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Off topic question, why do Iranians refer to themselves as Perians? Persia doesn't exist anymore. Genuinely curious?

Same reason Brits refer to themselves as Ex Pats and not migrants, they look down on Arab's see themselves as more cultured, they look back on the empires of Persia's ancient past before Islam altered the balance of power as their heritage, it gives them comfort

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Off topic question, why do Iranians refer to themselves as Perians? Persia doesn't exist anymore. Genuinely curious?

Iran is the oldest country in the world. As I understand it, they always called themselves Iran. It's Europeans, who called them Persia. Kind of like Finland is really Suomi, but everyone else call them Finland. A hundred years ago they asked to officially call them Iran instead of Persia.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Maybe, but I personally think the US are most likely to do it a 2nd time before any other country does. Especially now as more and more countries are pushing back against US hegemony and America struggles in an effort to maintain it.

While USA does seem to have a lot of internal problems, globally it is more dominant than ever. Some former USSR countries are NATO members. Russia is very isolated. In middle East Iranian proxies are significantly weakened in last two years, Iran is under heavy bombardment. USA is clearly advancing at least on those two fronts.

[Pointman]

There's one historical fact that explains a lot about the Middle East. 40 years ago there was a war between Iraq, led by Saddam Hussein, and Iran, led by Ayatollah Khomeini (who shares last name with a current Ayatollah).

So, USA supported Hussein - led Iraq. And Israel supported Ayatollah - led Iran

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War

Middle East is all about flip flopping and situational alliances, that can be an opposite of what was a decade ago. It's a very complicated money-driven chess game, where things like history, religion, ethnicity are used as excuses and propaganda, but are essentially a veil for real motivations.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Off topic question, why do Iranians refer to themselves as Perians? Persia doesn't exist anymore. Genuinely curious?

My friends call themselves Persians to honour their heritage and to specifically separate themselves from the negative impressions we (and they) have of Iran politically.

[activeStick]

Seeing clips now from March of this year where US Intelligence confirmed that Iran in fact is not building a nuclear weapon and their Supreme Leader has not has not authorized the suspended nuclear program from 2003 to restart.