SCF: Florida Panthers (A3) vs Edmonton Oilers (P3) - PANTHERS WIIIIN 4-2!!!

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Exactly how do you know this?

All we have to do is look at the Markstrom trade.

People whined because they didn't move him at the deadline but they ended up making a deal just as good if not better than the ones being rumored.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

It seems like Flames fans have a particular aversion to even the idea of bottoming out properly like essentially every Stanley Cup champ of the last 25 years except for St Louis and LA. My theory is it extends from the best player out of our last rebuild being a guy we got in the 4th round, so maybe people think it wasn’t necessary, and mainly how blatantly the Oilers tanked and obviously everything they do is bad and gross and terrible and we can’t do that. Guess that includes going to Stanley Cup finals and all in likelihood, winning one as well.

You are confusing aversion with acceptance. Again, I'd be fine tanking. But I accept they aren't going to do it to the extent some want.

And what the tank crowd also seems to ignore is the fact that many teams tank, for extended periods, and can't climb out of it.
So when people point to the evidence, they seem to ignore that.

[Monahammer]

We talked about that previously, Jiri. We don't need to repost comments through the same argument at least, do we?

I don't "know" this, but it is an extremely reasonable assumption given: remaining contract length and value, option of 2 playoff runs compared to one, increasing cap reducing value of retention, declining play by the player, and availability of alternatives increasing through roster shuffling and free agency in the summer. Peak value for Andersson (I think sooner because of play) was no later than TDL of this past season.

I think it's a misattributed Seneca quote: Luck is where preparation and opportunity meet. I totally accept that luck is involved, but bemoan the lack of preparation for these opportunities.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Flames missed the boat on Markstom according to the usuals suspects this time last year...ended up with 18th overall and Bahl

Some people just want to be angry

Anyway about that Cup final

Which was less than what was rumored at deadline. I think we got lucky that Bahl turned out to be a player.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

We talked about that previously, Jiri. We don't need to repost comments through the same argument at least, do we?

I don't "know" this, but it is an extremely reasonable assumption given: remaining contract length and value, option of 2 playoff runs compared to one, increasing cap reducing value of retention, declining play by the player, and availability of alternatives increasing through roster shuffling and free agency in the summer. Peak value for Andersson (I think sooner because of play) was no later than TDL of this past season.

I think it's a misattributed Seneca quote: Luck is where preparation and opportunity meet. I totally accept that luck is involved, but bemoan the lack of preparation for these opportunities.

So only you get to re-post your stuff at nauseum?
Or only you get to state things, with such certainty and not be challenged?
interesting.

I don't think it's an extremely reasonable assumption at all because we don't know how many teams were interested and if that is more or less than teams interested this summer.

Both are opportunities to trade him. I don't know how one could say, with such certainty, that one is better than the other except to layer in assumptions that support the thing they've already decided.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Which was less than what was rumored at deadline. I think we got lucky that Bahl turned out to be a player.

The rumored deal that the Devils said no to lol

Pro scouts wanted Bahl, and got him...its not just luck

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Which was less than what was rumored at deadline. I think we got lucky that Bahl turned out to be a player.

What was rumored at the deadline and by whom?
There was a lot of speculation? But what were the credible rumors?

I bet we could have gotten Holtz!

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by kevman

To your point - didn't the Flames have the same odds as the Pens in the Crosby lottery?

I don't think so. I can't find a full list of team odds, but I found this:

The Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins were each given three, and the best odds of landing Crosby (6.3%), due to their having missed the playoffs in 2002, ’03 and ’04 seasons and not receiving the first pick in each of the ’01, ’02, ’03 and ’04 drafts.

https://www.si.com/fantasy-football-...k-01jwemder28g

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Mercer would've completed the rebuild.

They really dropped the ball not forcing Edward's to green light retaining salary!

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by kevman

To your point - didn't the Flames have the same odds as the Pens in the Crosby lottery?

No, it was a different lottery system because of the lockout. 6 teams had the highest odds all with 6.3% chance, Flames had the lowest odds with 14 other teams at 2.1% chance.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

*Without* bottoming out the Flames have acquired a superstar goalie and potential superstar defenseman, and couple other really good ones.

Ffs, Bobby Orr was the last d-man to do what Parekh did in the OHL. Is that not elite enough?

I think you're fixated on the previous Flames philosophy while being impatient around what the team is currently doing and you aren't acknowledging that the Flames have changed up their approach to focus on accruing youth with upside while selling off vets who can't be a part of what they're trying to build.

That's two "elite" checkboxes marked off at two key positions.

I'm pretty sure with 4 firsts in the next two drafts including an unprotected Vegas pick that we can hold off for the moment on the "need to bottom out" narrative. They'll be putting these picks towards the best forward or center available. Let's see what they end up with.

I find most people desperate to suck are historians just looking at what GMs like treliving and Sutter did, burning every 1st rounder they could to further the agenda of making the playoffs.

We're not doing that any more. Time to get caught up to current events.

Wolf had a very good year and looks good, but I am not marking the elite box yet.

Parekh has played one NHL game. And you want to label him elite?

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

It seems like Flames fans have a particular aversion to even the idea of bottoming out properly like essentially every Stanley Cup champ of the last 25 years except for St Louis and LA. My theory is it extends from the best player out of our last rebuild being a guy we got in the 4th round, so maybe people think it wasn’t necessary, and mainly how blatantly the Oilers tanked and obviously everything they do is bad and gross and terrible and we can’t do that. Guess that includes going to Stanley Cup finals and all in likelihood, winning one as well.

There’s no aversion to it, people are just rejecting the fantasy/dreamlike picture that is being painted about it.

I mean, if someone said the lottery and gambling can make you rich, that’s true, of course. You can’t win the lottery if you don’t buy a ticket, and you can’t win big at the table if you don’t put down the $100. But that’s different than framing it as, say, “If you play the lottery you’ll be rich” or “I play the lottery because it’s going to make me rich.” The reality is there’s a lot of risk and the odds aren’t great, but if it’s other people’s money you’d probably say the same thing.

The reality of “bottoming out properly” includes a few things:
- it’s difficult to do (you can’t always do all the things you need to do to make it happen, and sometimes just doing all the things you CAN do isn’t enough)
- the rules no longer allow teams to benefit from it the same way the teams who have had success doing it did
- watching/following a basement dwelling team is almost exclusively miserable
- you’re unlikely to get one of the following: the quality of players you need to overcome any other issues and if you don’t get them, the mix required to make it work anyway

Like it’s fine to bring up the Oilers and say “Oh we should do that and anyone who doesn’t want to do that has an aversion to winning a Stanley Cup!” but if you don’t acknowledge that they’re been at it for 15 years and don’t yet have a cup (maybe they get one in year 15!) and have been a miserable-to-watch laughing stock for at least a decade of those 15 years, then yeah, it’s going to seem like people just don’t want a Stanley Cup, I guess?

The fact is that with Parekh, Wolf, and Coronato, the Flames have 3 of the 4 kinds of young players teams “bottom out properly” for. We’re missing one. And we didn’t “bottom out properly”. Can we find the one without doing it? We might have to. So no sense in sugar coating something that is unlikely to happen anyway.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by Beninho

No, it was a different lottery system because of the lockout. 6 teams had the highest odds all with 6.3% chance, Flames had the lowest odds with 14 other teams at 2.1% chance.

I was wrong, it was the "never having a first overall ball" that both Calgary and Pittsburgh had that I was remembering.

Calgary had a 4.2% chance though with two balls. And with that 4.2% chance they managed to draft 26th, behind most teams with a 2.1% chance. So the point kind of still stands, the Flames as a franchise have terrible luck.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Wolf had a very good year and looks good, but I am not marking the elite box yet.

Parekh has played one NHL game. And you want to label him elite?

Compare Parekh to some top 3 picks over the last 5 years and tell me he looks out of place. If that’s where you find the elite players and he’s playing like them, I don’t see much issue with keeping it consistent.

He almost matched Draisaitl’s numbers, as a defenceman, and you’ve got at least one person calling Draisaitl generational.

[Beninho]

Flames could have been horrible in 2015 and gone scorched earth like many fans want them to do trying to get a generational talent like McDavid. They could have gutted their team, trading players like Gio, Brodie, Hudler hell even Backlund. Just for Oilers to win the lottery and Flames draft a Dylan Strome. It’s even harder to tank now with the current lottery system then it was when the Oilers were tanking. There is no science behind this, just need to hope Flames find that stroke of luck needed at some point in the future.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Wolf had a very good year and looks good, but I am not marking the elite box yet.

Parekh has played one NHL game. And you want to label him elite?

Players of that ilk start somewhere.

Wolf was top 10 in save percentage in year one. It's not a stretch with his tools and accolades.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

I will give EDM coaches credit for one thing. I think sitting out the Diver Bros. for several games at the end of the regular season has made a big difference this year.

If the Oilers pull this off, we’ll definitely see other teams adopt the same tactic.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

If the Oilers pull this off, we’ll definitely see other teams adopt the same tactic.

The team with the 11th best odds won the lottery this year, most drafts don’t have a generational player, getting one is pure luck and it is dumb to try and plan for. It was not even a tactic by the Oilers, they just stunk and it was not on purpose. They wanted to finally be competitive with Taylor Hall. The year they got McDavid they were wanting to make the playoffs. It’s almost an impossible formula to replicate because it was not a formula, it was pure fluke luck that most franchises will never get. It sucks how it all played out but the Oilers model is almost impossible to replicate. A McDavid lite player is available maybe once every 15 years. I would even say a player like McDavid is more of an enigma, I don’t think I have seen a player like him and he may go down as one of it not the best offensive player ever. I ####ing hate he is on the Oilers but it is much more likely there wont be a similar prospect within the next 2 decades. He is a freak of nature and it’s more of an indictment on the Oilers that they have not won a cup with him yet. He is absurdly good. I mean Gavin McKenna is probably a superstar but McDavid was still on another level in terms of prospects. Maybe only Sid, Lindros and Mario were as hyped.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Beninho

The team with the 11th best odds won the lottery this year, most drafts don’t have a generational player, getting one is pure luck and it is dumb to try and plan for. It was not even a tactic by the Oilers, they just stunk and it was not on purpose. They wanted to finally be competitive with Taylor Hall. The year they got McDavid they were wanting to make the playoffs. It’s almost an impossible formula to replicate

They purposely failed to get Yakupov LOL. "Fail for Nail".

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Beninho

A lot of sports organizations are deemed successful when most of their success is down to pure luck and lottery balls.

It’s not pure luck, it’s playing the odds. Yes, you need the lottery balls to fall right. But you can manipulate the likelihood of that happening.

You’re right that it’s unfair. The lottery comes out differently and the Penguins don’t get Crosby. With a little more luck, the Wings wind up with Dahlin instead of Zadina, or Stutzle instead of Raymond. The fortunes of a franchise can turn on arbitrary chance.

The whole sport is full of luck. A deflected puck decides a series. An injury derails an entire season and gets a coach fired. An expensive deadline pickup goes cold and a 1st round pick is wasted.

But you still gotta play the odds and take your swings.