Is Dustin Wolf Rookie of the Year?

[Calgary4LIfe]

I was reading the last page of the Flames-Sharks PGT, and people were discussing Wolf vs Hutson for the Calder.



One thing that is interesting to look back on was the 2005-06 season. I see a lot of parallels from then. Here is a link to the Calder Voting that season:
https://www.hockey-reference.com/awa...l#calder_stats


Phaneuf was 3rd place just behind Ovechkin and Crosby. Many pundits felt that in almost any other year, Phaneuf would have won it. 20 goals(!!), 29 assists, 49 points. Lane Hutson right now is at 8 goals, 58 assists 64 points. That's a crazy amount of production for a defencemen, ignoring that he is a rookie. Phaneuf's 20 goals was amazing (and so was his stat line after 3 seasons - the most productive defencemen in goals since Bobby Orr, IIRC), but I would say Hutson's numbers are more impressive.



Anyway, #4 on the list of the Calder voting that year was Henrik Lundqvist. The gap between him and Phaneuf was much tighter than Phaneuf vs Crosby, or Crosby vs Ovechkin. Lundqvist also finished 3rd in Vezina voting that year (behind the Kiprusoff (w) and Brodeur.


Although Celebrini is awesome, and was called "The Next Crosby" - but that is more of a reflection in his overall mature game, rather than him being at that level of a prospect. Celebrini has missed some time, but would probably be in around Hutson's production level. So Hutson is out-producing both Celebrini and Michkov (whom I consider to be a distant 4th). However, Celebrini is nowhere near 'historic' for his season. Ovechkin and Crosby were both over 100pts in their rookie years. It is a fantastic season for Celebrini - on par with last year's winner Bedard - but hardly unprecedented. I think Celebrini is this year's Phaneuf - in almost any other year, he probably wins it, but not this year.

It was essentially a 2-horse race last year with Bedard and Faber. Faber's 47 points doesn't accurately summarize why he was less than 400 points away from Bedard (Hughes was a distant 3rd having almost 800 points less than Faber), but it was still nowhere near 'historic', even accounting for his veteran-like utilization.


2019-20 would have been such an interesting race to watch between Makar and Hughes. Let's pretend the league didn't shut-down, and that both Makar and Hughes continued to score at their respective PPGs paces (and factoring-in games played up until that point):
Makar would have finished with 59pts that season, and Hughes would have finished with: 63pts. Maybe their scoring would have increased as the season wrapped-up - hypotheticals are such a slippery slope to base an argument around. However, it is really impressive that Hutson is at 64.



What Hutson is doing is historic. When comparing all-time rookie defencemen scoring, he just passed Chelios on the list to secure the #6 spot all time. Montreal has 4 games left, and he can catch Bourque in 5th place (1 point behind him) and Housley in 4th place (2 points back). Heck, Gary Suter is #3 on the all time list with 68 points, and it isn't inconceivable that Hutson catches him. So I would say that Hutson working his way into the top 5 would be a historic Calder winning worthy season.
https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/nhl...enceman-season


With all of the above, I think Hutson wins it this year. What he has done so far this season is touching on the true sense of the word 'historic'. However, 2 things:
1) Wolf can perhaps tilt the voting in his favour with a few more performances like he did against San Jose (sick saves on Celebrini!), especially if it looks like he 'stole' some wins to close out the year and propels Calgary into the playoffs.
2) Karma. Finally karma catches up with that voter who left off Iginla completely on his ballot, which helped Theodore get the Hart over Iginla in 2001-02.



Hopefully Wolf gets it, as it means that the Flames made it to the playoffs.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

The Hutson thing is a farce. Overwhelming majority of his points are second assists. He's gonna get first place votes from MTL (obviously) and EDM (their media won't vote for a non-Oiler forward for any award, and definitely won't vote for a Flame). Other than that, he's getting nothing. Voters in ON will vote for Wolf or Celebrini (certainly not a MTL or PHI player). That just leaves the rest of the West (outside of central AB) and the rest of the US (outside of SJS and PHI)... Wolf is American, Celebrini is Canadian. That'll go however it goes, I guess.

A defenceman working the point is more likely to get secondary assists. They set up the plays and create the space. D-men get fewer actual goals themselves. Hughes has a career high of 17 goals. Makar is the only d-man at 30 goals or likely to get close to that total.

[troutman]

Hutson is 162 lbs Was minus 11 but up to minus 1 now. I can see him being less effective in the playoffs, when he gets hit a lot, and there are less PPs.

Wolf may have lost it last night with a bad 5 minutes.

[shutout]

Wolf has not shown an ability to win the games that have to be won.
That along with the light workload, and inability for the Flames to make the playoffs is why he will finish fourth in voting.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by troutman

Hutson is 162 lbs Was minus 11 but up to minus 1 now. I can see him being less effective in the playoffs, when he gets hit a lot, and there are less PPs.

Wolf may have lost it last night with a bad 5 minutes.

TBH Hutson has probably ran away with it over the last 25 or so games.

Wolf has struggled a little bit down the stretch here, posted this in the Ducks game thread.

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

TBH it's mostly that Vladar has been great the last 30 games and Wolf has struggled a bit.

To start the season Vladar was getting the harder starts, but actually kept himself afloat. Wolf took advantage of the easier matchups.

Vladar struggled in the middle portion of the season no matter how you slice it IMO. Wolf started to get more harder starts and flourished in that time period.

Game 1-25
Vladar: 12 GP, .900, -0.21 GSAA
Wolf: 13 GP, .918, 7.17 GSAA

Game 26-50
Vladar: 9 GP, .864, -8.84 GSAA
Wolf: 16 GP, .916, 5.91 GSAA

Game 51-78

Vladar: 8 GP, .921, 4.78 GSAA
Wolf: 21 GP, .899, 1.07 GSAA

So problem is the last 30 or so team games Vladar has been really good in limited starts. And they've probably overplayed Wolf a bit and he's struggled a little bit.

Hutson though is third among d-men with 24 points over the last 25 games, 58.6% xGF, and 27 GF - 12 GA at 5v5 in that time.

And the Canadiens are 14-7-4 in that time frame.

Unfortunately Hutson is the deserving winner at this point in time.

And even more unfortunate is that Treliving didn't do the obvious thing to take Hutson in that draft. Imagine if we had Hutson and Wolf on the team this year, with Parekh waiting in the wings...that would have been nice.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

While I know most people want Wolf to win, I think that we most everyone will be happy that the Oilers traded the draft pick to select Hutson to the Canadiens for Brent Kulak.

[jlh2640]

Wolf should be top 3, but 2 games stand out that are not solely on him. The Oiler game and last night, we needed a big save late or in overtime. It was not easy to make those saves either, but to truly be that guy, we needed more.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

And even more unfortunate is that Treliving didn't do the obvious thing to take Hutson in that draft. Imagine if we had Hutson and Wolf on the team this year, with Parekh waiting in the wings...that would have been nice.

I don't think it was that obvious, and Hutson went very late in the 2nd, so every other GM passed on him too. Ronni was a fine pick up hockey-wise....he just happened to be an awful human being.

That 2022 draft is looking like a total write-off for the Flames. The Flames turned their 1st round pick (plus a 5th and some pieces) into Toffoli, who they turned into Sharangovich and a 3rd.

[dammage79]

The 2nd goal last night did something to Wolf mentally. And it was the first time he had displayed a chink in the armor and that got compounded with the tying goal. I gotta say, the totality of the season warrants a stay of execution for Wolf on last night's unfortunate outcome.

The kid has literally carried this team far beyond its rightful place in the standings.

I hope they start Vlad for the Minnesota game . He has fresh legs and a hot hand too boot. Wolf needs a rest.

I'm not worried in the slightest about Wolf and one bad game does not undo a wonderous season by the rookie.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by shutout

Wolf has not shown an ability to win the games that have to be won.
That along with the light workload, and inability for the Flames to make the playoffs is why he will finish fourth in voting.

Lol 4th...Flames would have made the playoffs if they were fighting the Rangers like the Habs were. How close are your other two to the playoffs? 40+ points away?

[GioforPM]

It's between Hutson and Wolf for me. Celebrini is kind of having a standard top pick rookie forward seasons (same for Mitchkov) versus Hutson and Wolf doing things that are very rare for rookies in their positions.

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/3258250

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article...-major-trophy/

https://abc7news.com/post/nhl-awards...lder/16152070/

[The Cobra]

Hutson has distanced himself from Wolf to some extent, as Hutson has thrived down the stretch getting the Canadians into the playoffs.

Wolf has faltered to some extent.

Celebrini is coming on string too, although with no pressure. With the pedigree of the first pick in the draft, he could conceivably finish second.

[dino7c]

Flames have more points than Montreal right now...seems unfair he gets any bonus for getting his team in

I'm fine if Wolf is 2....him not being a finalist would be a farce though. Celebrini is putting up points lately but when your team gives up eight goals and losses every game its not that impressive.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by blankall

I don't think it was that obvious, and Hutson went very late in the 2nd, so every other GM passed on him too. Ronni was a fine pick up hockey-wise....he just happened to be an awful human being.

That 2022 draft is looking like a total write-off for the Flames. The Flames turned their 1st round pick (plus a 5th and some pieces) into Toffoli, who they turned into Sharangovich and a 3rd.

Sure it wasn't obvious to take him the first round, and I can even see the top 45 being a question mark. But once the draft was in the 50s taking him there was obvious, he was clearly the best player left on the board.

Especially with the Flames pick, where at the time they had absolutely no offensive defenseman in the system as prospects.

Hutson was looked over because he was small - IIRC he broke the USNDP record for points by a d-man in his draft year. But he was only 5'8" so he got over looked.

I know it's not people's favourite model - but Byron Bader had him as the 5th highest draft year star probability that year. Look at the USDP team that year.

Howard - 82 points
Cooley - 75 points
Nazar - 70 points
McGroarty - 69 points
Gauthier - 65 points
Snuggerrud - 63 points
Hutson - 63 points
Casey - 33 points

The 6 forwards ahead of him were all 1st round picks. Casey who had 30 fewer points and was also a small d-man at 5'10" was still taken 10+ picks ahead of him.

In the end taking the gamble on Hutson's elite talent being enough was obvious once the picks were in the 50s, and Montreal is reaping the rewards now.

[Hackey]

Can't see Hutson not winning now.

[GullFoss]

Wolf would need 3x shutouts to finish the season to get it

[dammage79]

Eastern media bias will win the day. We all know this.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Sure it wasn't obvious to take him the first round, and I can even see the top 45 being a question mark. But once the draft was in the 50s taking him there was obvious, he was clearly the best player left on the board.

Especially with the Flames pick, where at the time they had absolutely no offensive defenseman in the system as prospects.

Hutson was looked over because he was small - IIRC he broke the USNDP record for points by a d-man in his draft year. But he was only 5'8" so he got over looked.

I know it's not people's favourite model - but Byron Bader had him as the 5th highest draft year start probability that year. Look at the USDP team that year.

Howard - 82 points
Cooley - 75 points
Nazar - 70 points
McGroarty - 69 points
Gauthier - 65 points
Snuggerrud - 63 points
Hutson - 63 points
Casey - 33 points

The 6 forwards ahead of him were all 1st round picks. Casey who had 30 fewer points and was also a small d-man at 5'10" was still taken 10+ picks ahead of him.

In the end taking the gamble on Hutson's elite talent being enough was obvious once the picks were in the 50s, and Montreal is reaping the rewards now.

I generally don't really buy into the "GM missed out on an obvious pick" (even with hindsight), but it is funny that under Treliving, that they did select the previous d-man who had also broken the USNDP record - Fox. He was only 5'10" at the time (which is why he fell, rather than telling teams he is only going to the NYR - that came out a few seasons later, rather than at the draft), and had questionable skating at the time. Whichever scout who fought for Fox either didn't like Hutson, or simply lost the argument at the time, as I am sure the Flames had eyes on Hutson.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Wolf officially nominated as a Calder "finalist" along with Celebrini and Hutson.

https://www.nhl.com/news/calder-trop...es-dustin-wolf

[InternationalVillager]

He deserves to win the award but he won't. Easily had the most impact on his team's season out of the 3 players.