[GT] Canada Election 2025

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Ya those SAGD and mining sites. Just stick a straw in the ground and ka ching.

Need to educate yourself more on this province, its entrepreneurship and ingenuity, and culture.

Do you deliberately miss the point all the time, or are you just naturally good at it?

[TheIronMaiden]

6 ridings yet to report, liberals only lead in 1 of them. They have secured 168 seats, and are 4 shy of a majority.

Interestingly the Green Party is in a tight race, but with one one poll left to report it looks like they wont make up the 400 votes they will need.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Where are you getting 169?

CBC has it at 166 and the website refreshes automatically every 20 secs

166 is the confirmed elected. 169 is leading and elected.

All the Ontario seats have confirmed for the Cons. The only way they can get to 172 is through BC.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Ya those SAGD and mining sites. Just stick a straw in the ground and ka ching.

Need to educate yourself more on this province, its entrepreneurship and ingenuity, and culture.

Ya, you are right. The fumes from the oil have imbued Albertans with a uniqueness that no other Canadian would have been able to exploit or figure out. They'd be completely unable to even comprehend what to do with the resources or how to extract them and would rely on Newfoundland for transfers to survive.


That's such a dumb take. This is exactly what I mean. You think we are somehow better than other Canadians. That it's some unique thing we have in ourselves that no other Canadian could tap into and achieve. This is an arrogant, insulting dismissive superiority complex that is the root of the problem and why Albertans like you think we deserve more than any other Canadian.


But ya, I guess living my entire life in this province and working in oil and gas since graduation, all over the world, in the oilsands, in conventional, unconventional, lithium, helium, geothermal...I guess I just have no clue how the province and energy industry works so I must be a Laurentien elite or a hippy fool, right? The arrogance is astounding.

[Johnny Makarov]

It's over. One of the BC seats is confirmed for the Cons. Minority government.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Where are you getting 169?

CBC has it at 166 and the website refreshes automatically every 20 secs

Manually reload your page. That auto-refresh? Ya, sometimes it stops working even though it looks like it is.

[Caged Great]

Now with it within three, I wonder if they will ask some people to cross the floor.

It makes a ton of sense to try and get there.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

fixed, I thought she did once already.

Wasn't there an even more deplorable sack of feces that ran as well?

Twice.

She's been networking a lot with far-right types in the meantime though.

If Poilievere insists on hanging on as leader, the process could get bloody.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by WhiteTiger

I have been getting my results directly from Elections Canada. They show 169


https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I've been using this tracker and it seemed to be on the ball yesterday and today.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/fed...94fa46a36.html

Thanks I'm an idiot and didn't read the ####ing site correctly.

Jesus Christ be better UCB

[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Sorry I think you are wrong.

The sole 4 years of NDP Gov't was snub at the Redford Conservative Party at that time. Between 1971 and now Alberta has always voted blue.

I don't think Albertans are smart or strategic when it comes to Federal voting.

I agree a big part of it was a protest vote against Redford.

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Perhaps you have forgotten, but the NDP won that based on the vote split on the right. Wildrose and PC's combined for 52% of the vote, and it was only the splits that gave the NDP so many seats. Danielle Smith in the last election? 52.63% of the vote. Consistent!



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_A...neral_election

Thank you for proving my point, your link shows that 40.6% of the general vote is available. The NDP swept Edmonton and vote splitting had 0 impact as every candidate won by >50% of the popular vote. Calgary was where the vote splitting difference was made, only 1 seat (Joe Ceci) did the NDP have more votes than the PCs and Wild Rose combined.

A targeted approach to Edmonton and (to a lesser extent) Calgary could still win ridings for parties other than the conservatives. The risk however isnt worth the reward.

Like I’ve said previously, rural Alberta is a lost cause.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Thanks I'm an idiot and didn't read the ####ing site correctly.

Jesus Christ be better UCP

I wish it was easier to read... lol

[TheIronMaiden]

169 is a very strong minority, I don't think we get an election for a couple of years barring anything crazy.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

I agree a big part of it was a protest vote against Redford.



Thank you for proving my point, your link shows that 40.6% of the general vote is available. The NDP swept Edmonton and vote splitting had 0 impact as every candidate won by >50% of the popular vote. Calgary was where the vote splitting difference was made, only 1 seat (Joe Ceci) did the NDP have more votes than the PCs and Wild Rose combined.

A targeted approach to Edmonton and (to a lesser extent) Calgary could still win ridings for parties other than the conservatives. The risk however isnt worth the reward.

Like I’ve said previously, rural Alberta is a lost cause.

But without vote splitting, you repeat that election and the combined Conservative parties easily win. And now they are combined, and have won twice since. If only 40% of the vote is available, that's a very tough win to squeak out with only two parties, as we saw it fail in the last election.


In 2015, as you said, all Calgary would have been blue except for Ceci. The NDP can't win in that situation. So I guess I'm confused how this proves your point, unless I'm missing something obvious(and open to it!).

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Libs up to 169 now! They take one away from the Bloq in the last poll!

Nice!

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Perhaps you have forgotten, but the NDP won that based on the vote split on the right. Wildrose and PC's combined for 52% of the vote, and it was only the splits that gave the NDP so many seats. Danielle Smith in the last election? 52.63% of the vote. Consistent!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_A...neral_election

Except as I explained, the numbers show that isn't entirely the case because a split doesn't create votes out of thin air. It was wholly unexpected, but that election mobilized a whole lot of new voters who usually sat out.

In any case, the 2015 provincial election is the exception that proves the rule that AB overwhelmingly votes blue to their own detriment.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

169 is a very strong minority, I don't think we get an election for a couple of years barring anything crazy.

I don’t know why the 7 now without an actual party wouldn’t walk to give a majority…

[Dogbert]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

169 is a very strong minority, I don't think we get an election for a couple of years barring anything crazy.

The NDP will need at least a few years to replenish its coffers - despite all the talk of Singh's pension, the main reason they propped up the last government was that an earlier election would've bankrupted the party. Since the LPC/NDP seat count exceeds 172, I can't imagine the NDP toppling the government before it can afford to run another campaign.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

I don’t know why the 7 now without an actual party wouldn’t walk to give a majority…

What is the plus to them from sitting as NDP, non-official party status, vs Libs, official party status?

[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

But without vote splitting, you repeat that election and the combined Conservative parties easily win. And now they are combined, and have won twice since. If only 40% of the vote is available, that's a very tough win to squeak out with only two parties, as we saw it fail in the last election.


In 2015, as you said, all Calgary would have been blue except for Ceci. The NDP can't win in that situation. So I guess I'm confused how this proves your point, unless I'm missing something obvious(and open to it!).

Initially it was Torquedog who said “Alberta always votes blue”. I have shown through Edmonton and the 2015 election where the NDP won every seat by popular vote that his statement was false. Calgary also elected a majority of NDP officials, though this was due to vote splitting. I have also acknowledged multiple times that rural Alberta will always vote conservative.

Blanket statements like “Albertans will vote blue no matter what” are inaccurate and play into the trope of western rednecks which simply isn’t true. With Albertas low number of ridings it isn’t worth it for parties to invest resources to flip a low number of seats.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Dogbert

The NDP will need at least a few years to replenish its coffers - despite all the talk of Singh's pension, the main reason they propped up the last government was that an earlier election would've bankrupted the party. Since the LPC/NDP seat count exceeds 172, I can't imagine the NDP toppling the government before it can afford to run another campaign.

If they're worried about getting tied too closely to the LPC, they can also just abstain from certain votes.

However, they need to get out and do some groundwork in terms of winning back the union vote. A populist left-wing message would probably resonate more nowadays.