Russia invades Ukraine

[the-rasta-masta]

I think if the Americans actually put together an invasion it would be quickly responded to by our government making a deal to become the 51st state. It doesn't seem like a winnable situation unless the rest of NATO responded. I have a difficult time thinking the majority of Canadians would put their life on the line to avoid becoming a part of the US, unless they weren't going to give us any voting rights, etc... I love being Canadian, and I don't want to give that up, but I'd probably rather be a part of the US than be dead or live in a rebuilding war torn country after a war.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by indes

I'm not a huge history buff but has a country as defenseless as Canada ever mounted a resistance? I mean Iraq, Pakistan, Ukraine - these countries all had a huge stable of trained people and weapons, varying degrees of training and equipment for sure. They had command structures in place for people to fold into, they had experience and the ability to unify against an aggressor.

We depend on the US for all of that. Our military wouldn't even be able to mobilize before we were taken over. The US would be in Calgary, Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal & Ottawa before we even had a chance to respond. I do however admit that this is all just my thoughts on how things play out. I'm 35 and able bodied - if the Canadian army came knocking on my door and gave me a rifle and a mission, I would do my duty. But the way we operate I bet it would take the Canadian military 2 weeks to even get some basic kit together to get people into the meat grinder.

I just don't see it happening, it would be the opposite of Russia's "3 day military operation" where instead of it taking 3 years it would only take 12 hours.

Yeah, we're sitting ducks. I guess we'd have to ask ourselves if risking life, limb and infrastructure is worth mounting a defense.

I don't think our military would be able to repel the Americans (super obviously).

I can't help but think there are many that would be saboteurs domestically or infiltrate and sabotage things in America. We can blend in with them with ease (culture, accent, looks, etc.).

I don't think an invasion could happen in a surprise overnight-type fashion. Destroy important infrastructure with drones and cruise missiles? Sure, they could do that before I'm eating supper tonight.

I think if there were going to be American boots on the ground in Canada we'd get advanced intel on that. Would NATO step up? Who knows. I give it a 30% chance of them helping and a 70% chance of them stalling until they can't help.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by the-rasta-masta

I think if the Americans actually put together an invasion it would be quickly responded to by our government making a deal to become the 51st state. It doesn't seem like a winnable situation unless the rest of NATO responded. I have a difficult time thinking the majority of Canadians would put their life on the line to avoid becoming a part of the US, unless they weren't going to give us any voting rights, etc... I love being Canadian, and I don't want to give that up, but I'd probably rather be a part of the US than be dead or live in a rebuilding war torn country after a war.

lol, they obviously wouldn't give us voting rights. Or they'd do it in a way that would be meaningless. No way they're going to invite liberal Canada into the fold to immediately vote out the right-wing republicans.

[Monahammer]

I think it's an interesting thought process, and I've made the same argument about lack of willing armed resistors in the country previously.

However, I think you may be vastly underestimating medium term insurgency. Canadians can easily pass for americans. If there was a dedicated underground movement of sabotage after we were subsumed, it could do a huge amount of damage in a short time frame. It's more of a revenge scenario, but it may make us unpalatable to try to swallow if you know we're going to give you bad diarrhea.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I think it's an interesting thought process, and I've made the same argument about lack of willing armed resistors in the country previously.

However, I think you may be vastly underestimating medium term insurgency. Canadians can easily pass for americans. If there was a dedicated underground movement of sabotage after we were subsumed, it could do a huge amount of damage in a short time frame. It's more of a revenge scenario, but it may make us unpalatable to try to swallow if you know we're going to give you bad diarrhea.

The US military knows this well. You cannot hold a population against its will.

[indes]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I think it's an interesting thought process, and I've made the same argument about lack of willing armed resistors in the country previously.

However, I think you may be vastly underestimating medium term insurgency. Canadians can easily pass for americans. If there was a dedicated underground movement of sabotage after we were subsumed, it could do a huge amount of damage in a short time frame. It's more of a revenge scenario, but it may make us unpalatable to try to swallow if you know we're going to give you bad diarrhea.

I guess it depends how bad the occupation really is for us. If people still have jobs, food on the table and things are relatively normal - I think the rebels would be few and far between. I think Canada being occupied by the US looks a lot different than Ukraine or Iraq or Afghanistan.

Either way I hope this all stays hypothetical, as I'd probably be suckered into joining a fake resistance only to get lured into a FEMA camp.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Seems very ignorant and short sighted to me. We have cleared over 300 anti personnel landmines in Colombia in our operations. These things have killed hundreds and wounded thousands of people well after their main purpose, the majority being school aged children. But whatever, they are effective right?

Laos is another place with the same problem with citizens still getting killed accidentally by American munitions.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-d...ombs-from-laos

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by indes

I guess it depends how bad the occupation really is for us. If people still have jobs, food on the table and things are relatively normal - I think the rebels would be few and far between. I think Canada being occupied by the US looks a lot different than Ukraine or Iraq or Afghanistan.

Either way I hope this all stays hypothetical, as I'd probably be suckered into joining a fake resistance only to get lured into a FEMA camp.

A very, very salient point. People have to be angry to resist. And being an American, after the initial shock, probably wouldn't be so bad for the majority of people. Probably not bad enough to shake them out of the comfort of their lives to adopt the horrible life of a rebel.

It's the same issue we have as a whole with mounting an armed resistence- who would actually stand up and hold a gun? We all have good personal lives and frankly too much to lose in those scenarios.

BUT, big but. The worst outcome for an occupier wouldn't even be organized resistance. It would be loan wolves who snap and decide to take a shot at the occupier. And this could happen for any reason at all, into perpetuity. Got fired at work and wife left you? Well, blame the oppressor and commit an act of revenge!

There are plenty of Canadians with advanced chemical knowledge and plenty of access to substrates. Only takes one or two to do something seriously nasty.

[RoadGame]

As we grapple with analogies to make sense of this moment, maybe Holland 1940 and the dutch resistance is a decent one.

Or Norway.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Leondros

A Colombian oil and gas producer (there’s not many of us). These mines are from the civil war. We have cleared almost 300 mines around villages as part of our social commitments. They are nasty!

While I appreciate the personal experience, you are pointing to a scenario (a neverending low-intensity conflict between mostly paramilitary forces in a country that doesn't have the resources to do proper large scale cleanup) which is not comparable to a well-organized standing army trying to protect it's population from an outside force.

Any war with Russia will leave large swathes of land uninhabitable, it's just the reality, but if Russia takes over your country, large swathes of your land will be cleared from it's original population by the Russians.

Yes, I would absolutely rather take my chances with landmines than leave an effective weapon unused in what would already be an extremely difficult defensive battle.

If mines can help you make any difference in where the battle lines end up, they can stop whole villages, towns or cities being wiped out of existence by Russian artillery.

Again, any of the countless internal conflicts between largely paramilitary forces are just not comparable here.

[afc wimbledon]

You would think by now it would not be beyond the wisdom of arms makers to come up with a remote controlled mine that wouldn't be a risk to some poor farmer a decade later

[Itse]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

You would think by now it would not be beyond the wisdom of arms makers to come up with a remote controlled mine that wouldn't be a risk to some poor farmer a decade later

The problem with that is that eventually the enemy would hack your mines and disable them all at once.

Same reason why there is no remote "killswitch" in F-35:s the Americans could use, despite the fear-mongering.

[Fuzz]

That's why I suggested a timer, and a really good calendar.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Itse

The problem with that is that eventually the enemy would hack your mines and disable them all at once.

Same reason why there is no remote "killswitch" in F-35:s the Americans could use, despite the fear-mongering.

That "kill switch" isn't really fear mongering, imo. The maintenance those things take is insane. Withholding parts will disable them in short order. If you own F-35s, a good relationship with the USA is mandatory if you're going to keep them in the air. So not a kill switch in the sense that they can flick a button in Washington and disable your jet, but they can just sit on their hands for a relatively short amount of time and your jet will disable itself.

[Fuzz]

Ya, Iran learned that with their tomcats.

[Cheese]

An update on the war following a recent trip.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1902694940485767451


British and French coalition of willings deployment to Ukraine will involve:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1902759547309117517


During the Cold War, it was the Soviet objective to split the West.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1902441325833941198


Cruel and senseless treatment of a Russian army soldier who was also under the influence of drugs during a mission.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1902737149067182561


Putin has signed a decree stating that all Ukrainians in Russia without "legal grounds for residence" must leave the territory of the Russian Federation by September 10, 2025.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1902714226851868765


The airfield in Engels is still on fire. There is still a fire, explosions, and secondary detonation of ammunition recorded there. Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, and Tu-160 bombers are stationed there

https://twitter.com/user/status/1902697717287059898

https://twitter.com/user/status/1902652561892815313


The German government, which is stepping down, will provide Ukraine with additional military aid amounting to three billion euros, reports Reuters.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1902401555497697305


"It looks very strange. If Putin 'does not intend to continue fighting against Ukraine and wants peace,' then why is he demanding that we weaken our army?"

https://twitter.com/user/status/1902347101444468853


Might come in handy: "France preparing ‘survival manual’ for every household, report says. Booklet to give guidance on preparing for ‘imminent threats’ including armed conflict and natural disaster"
https://bsky.app/profile/christianth.../3lkswbhapd22i

[Cheese]

Back to first page with you!!


Russia and the US have agreed on a list of Russian and Ukrainian facilities subject to a temporary moratorium on attacks on the energy system, — Kremlin

https://twitter.com/user/status/1904606933547442594


Kavkazskaya" point exploded again

https://twitter.com/user/status/1903854602690162962


According to US intelligence, Russia’s inability to achieve quick battlefield wins is fueling concerns that Putin could resort to nuclear weapons

https://twitter.com/user/status/1904596491152613688


Now the Americans are saving the Russians. Saving them from final defeat in the Black Sea. Saving their refineries and other energy infrastructure. As a bonus, they are starting to lift sanctions so that the Russians have more money for the war.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1904587183144476721


"There are no questions about territories. No matter what they say, we must follow our strategy," — Zelensky.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1904580442344300772


Lavrov: Ukraine is a Nazi project backed by Europe to fight Russia. Moscow will “denazify” Kyiv and build a new world order - with China, India, Iran, and North Korea.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1904461087094808795


The Kremlin has published its own statement after the Russian-American negotiations, which suggests that Russia will agree to ensure security in the Black Sea and not attack civilian ships only if the sanctions are lifted.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1904571526956843036


"The EU cannot unfreeze Russian assets, since the income from their reinvestment is a guarantee for the G7 military loans issued to Ukraine," — European Council President Costa

https://twitter.com/user/status/1904555988734161343


The United States will help restore Russia's access to the world market for the export of agricultural products and fertilizers

https://twitter.com/user/status/1904548473212465563


"Ukraine has the capacity to produce weapons worth about $35 billion a year, but now we only have funding for $14 billion," — Minister for Strategic Industries Smetanin.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1904524567491543452

[CroFlames]

That is a sad, sad news dump. Dang.

How long before the US starts sending actual lethal military aid to Russia? You'll see Patriot missile systems protecting the Kremlin by 2026.

[afc wimbledon]

I hope, regardless of ceasefires, that Europe continues to blockade Russian energy exports and forces Russia's eventual collapse

[FlamesAddiction]

Lavrov: Ukraine is a Nazi project backed by Europe to fight Russia. Moscow will “denazify” Kyiv and build a new world order - with China, India, Iran, and North Korea.

That sounds like a terrifying world to live in.