The Playoff Hunt. Flames Vs Wild Vs Blues

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

It's crazy that the difference that's kept the Flames from being near the top of the conference is how they've fared in the skills competition.

True enough.

But fairly predictable, really. When the Oilers play 3-on-3, they have McDavid and Draisaitl out on the ice every possible second. Of course they're going to do better than a team whose best offensive weapon is Huberdeau.

That said, even given the differences in personnel, the Oilers have probably been unreasonably lucky in OT, and the Flames unreasonably unlucky.

[Yeah_Baby]

I know the points all count the same, but man, do this two losses to the Blues earlier this year sting more right now

[Toonage]

Even more so considering the effort they gave those 2 games compared to the effort they're giving now.

[Elkyiv]

I'd also like to think that it's beneficial to play the Wild, GKs, and the Kings so late as they will already know their fate and will try to preserve energy, maybe even start a back up in net. Those games could be "easier" than playing eliminated teams who have nothing to lose.

[JD]

Yup playing the also rans late in the year can be trap games because those teams use games against teams scratching and clawing in meaningful races as measuring sticks and sources of motivation where there's nothing to play for.

The Flames have been those spoilers many times over the years, we've seen it in action.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Brodie66

I think we need 95 points so we probably finish with 94

Blues have an easy path to 95 so I'd say we need 96, but yes we probably finish with 94.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

The Blues have the Jets, Oilers (probably seeking vengeance) and Avs twice, Utah who are chasing them, and Montreal is fighting for points and they face them tomorrow too.

It's not ten gimmes.

6 wins seems realistic for them. If there arent loser points in there, that's 93 points. Depending on if the Flames have the tie breaker end of season, to get in is probably 93 or 94. More likely 94 given that the Blues didn't lose over the weekend.

To hit 94:
8-4-1, 7-3-3, 6-2-5

That's probably the most realistic projection for a Flames team playing well (given that it won't be enough even on a good night to best some of these teams) that gives them a reasonable chance.

You have
4 games against the Cali basement clubs
2 games against teams outside looking in (SEA, UTA)
7 games against playoff teams (VGK x2, DAL, EDM*, COL, MIN, LAK*)

*Edmonton potentially without key players

4-0-0 vs cali
1-1-0 vs mid teams
3-3-1 vs playoff teams

Is roughly what they're looking at to get that record. When you break it down that way, it looks feasible. Flames won't be able to take any games off though, especially against those lowly teams. They'll have to bag points in those games.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

The Blues have the Jets, Oilers (probably seeking vengeance) and Avs twice, Utah who are chasing them, and Montreal is fighting for points and they face them tomorrow too.

It's not ten gimmes.

6 wins seems realistic for them. If there arent loser points in there, that's 93 points. Depending on if the Flames have the tie breaker end of season, to get in is probably 93 or 94. More likely 94 given that the Blues didn't lose over the weekend.

To hit 94:
8-4-1, 7-3-3, 6-2-5

Is there any team they don't have the tie breaker over, among the contenders for WC2?

[hwy19man]

Utah and the Canucks are in action tonight. My guess is that Utah wins and the Canucks lose.

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by hwy19man

Utah and the Canucks are in action tonight. My guess is that Utah wins and the Canucks lose.

What the oddsmakers have said as well. Interesting!

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Nm

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Is there any team they don't have the tie breaker over, among the contenders for WC2?

They have they tie break on all the teams, but that can easily change depending on OTW/SOWs and 1 point losses.

The 1st tie break is regulation wins
STL 27RW, +4P
CGY 26RW, 0
VAN 25RW, -1P
UTA 24RW, -2P

If the Flames get the wins in their make up games on STL in regulation, then they would have 28 regulation wins. If UTA gets 2 more points than the Flames then they would still likely be a regulation win short.

If VAN wins in regulation, and the Flames only get 1 loser point in their extra games, then VAN has the edge thanks to one more OT win than the Flames.

If the Flames and STL somehow get the same number of regulation wins, then STL has the tiebreaker because they have 2 more OT wins. UTA also has 3 more OTWs than the Flames.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by hwy19man

Utah and the Canucks are in action tonight. My guess is that Utah wins and the Canucks lose.

We are all Devils fans tonight, right???



Right????

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

We are all Devils fans tonight, right???



Right????

Tonight we are all Devils fans.

But this is the last night. After tonight, they must burn.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Tonight we are all Devils fans.

But this is the last night. After tonight, they must burn.

Back to hell!

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Blues have an easy path to 95 so I'd say we need 96, but yes we probably finish with 94.

I'd like to see that math

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I'd like to see that math

I'll take a stab at it.



Updating the OP, the Blues have 10 games left so 20 possible points.

They have 81 points at present.To reach 95 points, they require 14 of 20 possible points. That would require a 70% points percentage over the remaining 10 games.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

I'll take a stab at it.



Updating the OP, the Blues have 10 games left so 20 possible points.

They have 81 points at present.To reach 95 points, they require 14 of 20 possible points. That would require a 70% points percentage over the remaining 10 games.

"easy path" is what I disagree with...

just play .700 hockey as your schedule gets much tougher than it has been lately. It's certainly not easy or likely they get to 95.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Blues sure have had an interesting scheduling. They played the kings 3 times in 5 games. They had a back to back vs us played Utah and had a back to back vs Vegas.

[SutterBrother]

Do we still control our fate if we win out?

Or are we reliant on other teams?