The Playoff Hunt. Flames Vs Wild Vs Blues

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

More likely they come back to earth versus continuing at that pace.

Agreed. Extrapolating from a short-term hot streak seldom works out well, but there's always somebody who insists on doing it anyway.

C. S. Lewis made fun of this tendency in a snarky line: ‘The wheel runs fast, therefore the wheel must run faster forever.’

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Brodie66

I think we need 95 points so we probably finish with 94

I think it’ll be more like 92

[Goriders]

Still think the Blues have the upper hand due to weak schedule. But the Flames have been proving me wrong all year.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Still think the Blues have the upper hand due to weak schedule. But the Flames have been proving me wrong all year.

The schedules have normalized a bit - the Blues are through the easiest part and no longer have the easiest remaining schedule in the league.

Blues: .544 remaining
Utah: .545
Flames: .546
Canucks: .568

[The Cobra]

The Blues are simply a better team than the Flames, with a +7 goal differential vs. the Flames -21.

But the closer they get to the end of the season with them in the hunt, the better the Flames chances are.

The Ducks are no pushover, being essentially a .500 team. Although their goal differential is -30.

The Flames 4 games vs. the Sharks and Ducks may well make the difference.

But it starts with Seattle on Tuesday.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Still think the Blues have the upper hand due to weak schedule. But the Flames have been proving me wrong all year.

Proving all of us wrong to be exact.

The last 3 games are simply unbelievable. Such resilience.

[Goriders]

I think Vancouver is done.

Not sure what to think about Utah. They still have games against us and the Blues. They are the dark horse.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Proving all of us wrong to be exact.

The last 3 games are simply unbelievable. Such resilience.

Fun to watch. That’s all I wanted this year. Don’t be a garbage team like Chicago or San Jose

[EDMONTONisNG]

All hail the loser point. They are coming in clutch for us.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The schedules have normalized a bit - the Blues are through the easiest part and no longer have the easiest remaining schedule in the league.

Blues: .544 remaining
Utah: .545
Flames: .546
Canucks: .568

I use the opponents home or road winning percentage in my numbers. Than I factor in the teams home or road winning percentage based on game location and come up with expected points based on average number of points awarded per game so I have.

CGY 13 games left, 7 home, 6 road, Opp Pt% 0.543, Exp Pts 14.8, Tot 91.8
STL 11 games left, 6 home, 5 road, Opp Pt% 0.534, Exp Pts 12.5, Tot 91.5
VAN 12 games left, 6 home, 6 road, Opp Pt% 0.580, Exp Pts 13.0, Tot 89.8
UTH 12 games left, 6 home, 6 road, Opp Pt% 0.543, Exp Pts 13.3, Tot 88.3

So in essence I have the Blues and Flames in a dead heat and over 10 games the schedule difference should not be that much. After todays game the Blues opponents localized opponents point % jumps up to like 0.558.

One thing that could factor in is what the Kings end up doing. Right now I have them neck and neck with the Oilers to finish 2nd in the Pacific with LA at 102.6 and Edmonton at 101.3. So if that game gives the Kings a chance to claim home ice for that series, they'll play hard and they've been the best team in the league at home. If their fate is already known, it might be the difference between the Flames finishing with 91, 92, or 93 points. 93 will certainly do it, and even 92 with more Regulation wins probably get's it done too.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by SemicolonD

We have the biggest "gimme" games with 2 Ducks and 2 Sharks games, go 4-0 in those games and you could even go 4-5 in the other 9 games to get 93 points and likely still make it.

Canucks would need to go 9-3 to get 94 points which is unlikely, and Blues would need to have the tie break and go 7-4 or 7-3-1 without the tie break.

I like those odds with a 4-5 record against the non Ducks/Sharks opponents, so if we go 4-4-1 or 5-4 against those opponents it makes everything look even better.

Have you been a Flames fan for a long time?

We are absolutely losing some or all of those “gimme games” lol

I think Calgary just misses personally. Too many missed opportunities and passengers throughout the year. Still blown away Sharangovich is in the lineup, some the AHL players are probably better hockey players right now.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Have you been a Flames fan for a long time?

We are absolutely losing some or all of those “gimme games” lol

I think Calgary just misses personally. Too many missed opportunities and passengers throughout the year. Still blown away Sharangovich is in the lineup, some the AHL players are probably better hockey players right now.

The Flames have been pretty good at gaining points vs weaker opponents this year.
Here's the Flames record vs the bottom teams:
SJS - 2GP, 4P, 1.000
CHI - 3GP, 6P, 1.000
NSH - 3GP, 4P, 0.667
BUF - 2GP, 3P, 0.750
SEA - 3GP, 4P, 0.667
PHI - 2GP, 4P, 1.000
PIT - 2GP, 2P, 0.500
BOS - 2GP, 2P, 0.500
ANA - 2GP, 4P, 1.000
DET - 2GP, 1P, 0.250

I don't think there are as many passengers as you make it out to be. The top 2 lines are clicking, and if Backlund comes back it solidifies the 3rd, shut down line. As far as bringing in AHL players, the Wranglers are pretty decimated already, with only Kerins and Stromgren as potential options upfront. I'm more concerned about the Lomberg - Rooney line. It almost cost us the game against the NYI, and a couple more throughout the year.

PS: hopefully Weegar isn't out for any length of time.

[SemicolonD]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Have you been a Flames fan for a long time?

We are absolutely losing some or all of those “gimme games” lol

I think Calgary just misses personally. Too many missed opportunities and passengers throughout the year. Still blown away Sharangovich is in the lineup, some the AHL players are probably better hockey players right now.

That's fair but I'm just trying to illustrate a path that is pretty feasible and likely gets us into the playoffs.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

More likely they come back to earth versus continuing at that pace.

That kind of run breeds a lot of confidence, especially on a run to the playoffs.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

The Flames have been pretty good at gaining points vs weaker opponents this year.
Here's the Flames record vs the bottom teams:
SJS - 2GP, 4P, 1.000
CHI - 3GP, 6P, 1.000
NSH - 3GP, 4P, 0.667
BUF - 2GP, 3P, 0.750
SEA - 3GP, 4P, 0.667
PHI - 2GP, 4P, 1.000
PIT - 2GP, 2P, 0.500
BOS - 2GP, 2P, 0.500
ANA - 2GP, 4P, 1.000
DET - 2GP, 1P, 0.250

I don't think there are as many passengers as you make it out to be. The top 2 lines are clicking, and if Backlund comes back it solidifies the 3rd, shut down line. As far as bringing in AHL players, the Wranglers are pretty decimated already, with only Kerins and Stromgren as potential options upfront. I'm more concerned about the Lomberg - Rooney line. It almost cost us the game against the NYI, and a couple more throughout the year.

PS: hopefully Weegar isn't out for any length of time.

Uh huh, I’ve been a Flames fan forever. Just watch. The “easy” games down the stretch are going to look like Herculean tasks for this team.

Also, there are no easy games in the NHL anyway.

[TheIronMaiden]

The Flames have need very solid against weaker oponents. The teams they struggle against are the top tier teams.



That said, they blues, Bennington. Have been amazing since the break.

[Canada 02]

Buchnevich is out; the Blues call up Dalibor Dvorsky, and he is playing tonight

[Groot]

Originally Posted by EDMONTONisNG

All hail the loser point. They are coming in clutch for us.

Fake fan, everyone knows you're a closet troll.

Ironic because winning at 3v3 play that you'll never see in the playoffs is the only reason the "contender" Oilers are 10 points up on the "rebuilding" Flames.

Flames 3v3 - shootout - loss record
4 - 3 - 11

Oilers 3v3 - shootout - loss record
11 - 0 - 5

[Calgary4LIfe]

Flames have been winning those 'easy' games usually because they have that 'it' factor that is absent in many seasons - their will to work hard and stick to the structure game in and game out. Sure, there have been some flops, but this season I don't look at the 'gimme games' as a trap - I look at them as easy points for a change, whereas in the past when this team was legitimately strong, I did worry about those games.


Tough road to make the playoffs given schedules and how some teams are performing. However, Flames are in that 2nd wildcard spot by points percentage. This means that their own future is in their own hands. They don't NEED another team or two to lose more than they do. I prefer for them to be in that situation than hoping another team loses 2 or 3 more times than the Flames do until the end of the season. It is a a huge advantage when you control your own destiny.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

It's crazy that the difference that's kept the Flames from being near the top of the conference is how they've fared in the skills competition.