Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I know prices were high for Dmen at the trade deadline, but I still think you will still get value at the draft if you decide to move on from him. Something similar to when Romanov was traded from Montreal for the 13th pick. I would rather have something like that over a late 20s pick.

I could see the rangers 13-15 pick being in play. They've underperformed this year, but likely have cup aspirations next year. MAYBE the jackets 10th overall as they've accumulated a solid prospect core and likely want to get Werenski a partner.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I know prices were high for Dmen at the trade deadline, but I still think you will still get value at the draft if you decide to move on from him. Something similar to when Romanov was traded from Montreal for the 13th pick. I would rather have something like that over a late 20s pick.

The trade deadline is over, it's time to move on. I think if the Flames skid down the stretch, Conroy is more likely to sell at the draft.

My hope is he uses an asset like Rasmus with a late 1st to move up.

I could see teams like Detroit or Boston being interested.

You could allow teams to talk to Rasmus on draft day to see if he is interested in extending with them in the summer.

Hoping we have an active draft day this year. Cap going up maybe we move a few guys.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Wolven

The Trade Deadline is behind us and here is my update with 2/20 of the remaining games completed.

Section 1: Schedule update
Marching down the stretch: 18 games remaining

• Expected Wins: Kraken (H), UHC (A), Ducks (H), Sharks (A), Ducks (A), Sharks (H),
• Likely Wins: Islanders (A), Wild (H), Kings (A),
• Likely Losses: Rangers (A),
• Expected Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A), Devils (A), Stars (H), Oilers (A), Avalanche (A), Golden Knights (H), Golden Knights (H),

Results for the final 20 games of the season

• Confirmed Wins: Canadiens (H),
• Confirmed OTL: Canucks (H)*,
• Confirmed Losses:

*Defied expectation
…

In our second road trip of the month, halfway through a Toronto to NY back-to-back, here is my update with 4/20 of the last games completed.

Section 1: Schedule update
Marching down the stretch: 16 games remaining

• Expected Wins: Kraken (H), Ducks (H), Sharks (A), Ducks (A), Sharks (H),
• Likely Wins: Islanders (A), UHC (A),
• Likely Losses: Rangers (A), Wild (H), Golden Knights (H), Kings (A),
• Expected Losses: Devils (A), Stars (H), Oilers (A), Avalanche (A), Golden Knights (H),

Results for the final 20 games of the season

• Confirmed Wins: Canadiens (H),
• Confirmed OTL: Canucks (H)*,
• Confirmed Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A),

*Defied expectation

The last 2 games went as expected with losses to playoff teams. I adjusted my expectation list a bit based on lowered expectations due to Backlund’s injury. UHC moved from expected win to likely win. The team needs to win this game, same as how they needed to win the Canucks game. The Wild, second VGK, and Kings games move to likely losses but I would hope they can be wins. Hopefully Zary returns and knocks our socks off and forces me to have more optimistic expectations.

Section 2: Playoff standings update
The team is 2 points out of WC2. Things are not looking good for the playoffs.

• Canucks are in WC2, 2 points up on the Flames and Flames have a game in hand
• Blues went from 2 points back to 2 points up and Flames have 2 games in hand
• UHC are tied with the Flames and Flames have a game in hand

Section 3: Tankathon update

• The Flames have the 22nd hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 3-4-3)
• Canucks have the 3rd hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 5-5-0)
• Blues are 32nd hardest... STILL the easiest remaining schedule as of now!!!! (L10 = 7-2-1)
• UHC are 15th hardest (L10 = 6-2-2)
• Bruins are 27th hardest (L10 = 3-6-1)

Based on the standings, the Canucks are still a threat as they are in WC2 but they do have a very hard schedule ahead of them. The Blues and UHC are both attacking WC2 with their winning records in their last 10 and easy schedules in front of them.

Section 4: "Top10 draft" update

• Flames have dropped to 18th overall, tied with Canadiens and UHC. (3 spot drop from last update)
• 1 point back is the CBJ and Red Wings
• 2 points back is the Bruins
• 3 points back is the Islanders (last update they were 6 points back)

2 points separate the Flames from dropping 5 spots in the standings to 23 OA. For team tank, the hardest part will be to race the Bruins for that 10th draft pick. After adding the Bruins to the Tankathon section we see that they have the 27th hardest (6th easiest) schedule remaining. Hopefully their easy schedule will push them up the standings if the Flames start free-falling.

Section 5: Other 1st round pick update
Devils are 13OA in the standings (holding position) – 25th hardest schedule remaining
Panthers are 7OA in the standings (2 spot drop) – 12th hardest schedule remaining

[traptor]

I think the Sens are a good fit for Rasmus.


It looks like they still have a big gap on the right side and are relying on guys like Hamonic and Jensen to fill their top 4.

He fits their window.


After bringing in Cozens, it feels like Pinto and Greig are redundancies in their systems.

I could see the flames being interested in both.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

I could see the rangers 13-15 pick being in play. They've underperformed this year, but likely have cup aspirations next year. MAYBE the jackets 10th overall as they've accumulated a solid prospect core and likely want to get Werenski a partner.

I can't see either the 13th or 10th pick being in play for Anderson when the prize would be to sign him to a very long term contract.

He just hasn't been very good this year to commit that much money long term to him.

I actually think many teams will consider him a rental for one year.

[Jiri Hrdina]

On one hand you might be able to get a pick in this year's draft because it's below average overall. I suspect a 2026 pick will carry some protection, so you have to balance what is worth more, as the '26 draft is looking better (so far anyways).

I agree the Sens might be a fit.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

I could see the rangers 13-15 pick being in play. They've underperformed this year, but likely have cup aspirations next year. MAYBE the jackets 10th overall as they've accumulated a solid prospect core and likely want to get Werenski a partner.

Unless it is 13th pick, Pittsburgh owns that pick.

I know that most people will say that any team at the bottom won't be giving up on their picks and they should rebuild, but I see some teams as targets for the Flames.

Detroit and Boston might want Rasmus. Not sure if they part with their 1st without the Flames adding though.

I could see Nashville trading the late 1sts they have. They have an aging roster, but the cap situation is very good, and their best players are locked up. They will still be adding a top end prospect to the team as well.

Seattle could put the Tampa picks in play. They have lots of good prospects and youth on the team. The players they traded didn't really hurt their roster. Grubauer back to the Flames could be interesting if we could add those picks.

Montreal has extra picks and a roster on the rise. I could see them trading to get better now.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

On one hand you might be able to get a pick in this year's draft because it's below average overall. I suspect a 2026 pick will carry some protection, so you have to balance what is worth more, as the '26 draft is looking better (so far anyways).

I agree the Sens might be a fit.

If you go through the history of the draft and take out the top 5 picks and compare how many players are better than Rasmus in each draft. You are talking around 5-8 players yearly with maybe the odd draft 10+.

Every year teams sign 30-year-old players to 7-year deals, they aren't always bad signings.

Some team have the cap and the situation to add him and it be a good move.

I'm not a huge Rasmus fan but he could be a good fit for lots of teams and teams that are on the rise that already have tons of prospects and high-end prospects might be interested.

Your point on this draft too, I think some teams might be trading away picks. We saw it at the deadline.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

If you go through the history of the draft and take out the top 5 picks and compare how many players are better than Rasmus in each draft. You are talking around 5-8 players yearly with maybe the odd draft 10+.

Every year teams sign 30-year-old players to 7-year deals, they aren't always bad signings.

Some team have the cap and the situation to add him and it be a good move.

I'm not a huge Rasmus fan but he could be a good fit for lots of teams and teams that are on the rise that already have tons of prospects and high-end prospects might be interested.

Your point on this draft too, I think some teams might be trading away picks. We saw it at the deadline.

On top of that Rasmus is good now. Whereas most picks outside of the top 5 take several yeas to develop. For most teams outside of the top 5, that pick won't develop in the window that their other players are in their prime for.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by blankall

On top of that Rasmus is good now. Whereas most picks outside of the top 5 take several yeas to develop. For most teams outside of the top 5, that pick won't develop in the window that their other players are in their prime for.

Every team situation is different, and some teams aren't that far off or have high end prospects on the verge. Just because they are still at the bottom doesn't mean that will stay that way.

Teams like Nashville still might try a retool. Extra picks, tons of cap and can trade picks and still add possibly the 1st OV pick to their team. Not a bad strategy for a retooling team that can attract UFAs.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by blankall

On top of that Rasmus is good now. Whereas most picks outside of the top 5 take several yeas to develop. For most teams outside of the top 5, that pick won't develop in the window that their other players are in their prime for.

He's been pretty damn bad for the last 25 ish games.

[iloveicedhockey]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

We’ll finish 10th and a team will win the lottery which pushes us to 11th

That is the Flames destiny

I raise you a finishing 8th pick, then getting bumped 3 spots to 11th. This will be followed by people claiming that if we had kept going and finished 15th, we would have won the lottery, despite the assigned random numbers being completely different in that parallel universe.

Best case - go on a run and make the playoffs
Next best - get a top 10 pick and NJ fail hard with another pick mid-teens.
What will likely happen - finish 11th pick, no lottery win, Florida win back to back cups, with NJ making the conference final, an insanely good player slips to Montreal (the next Kyle Connor)

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by iloveicedhockey

I raise you a finishing 8th pick, then getting bumped 3 spots to 11th. This will be followed by people claiming that if we had kept going and finished 15th, we would have won the lottery, despite the assigned random numbers being completely different in that parallel universe.

Best case - go on a run and make the playoffs
Next best - get a top 10 pick and NJ fail hard with another pick mid-teens.
What will likely happen - finish 11th pick, no lottery win, Florida win back to back cups, with NJ making the conference final, an intranet good player slips to Montreal.

Don’t they only draw for the first 2 picks now ?

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

He's been pretty damn bad for the last 25 ish games.

I agree and the return isn't going to be as good as some suggest. The Flames strength right now is the depth at prospects. I think they can afford to try a trade up scenario with the late 1sts they have.

Might not be worth it if you can't trade high enough but moving out some vets and trading up helps with our pick next year too.

[iloveicedhockey]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Don’t they only draw for the first 2 picks now ?

You might be right. Maybe they do a special annoy the Flames bonus draw.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Unless it is 13th pick, Pittsburgh owns that pick.

I know that most people will say that any team at the bottom won't be giving up on their picks and they should rebuild, but I see some teams as targets for the Flames.

Detroit and Boston might want Rasmus. Not sure if they part with their 1st without the Flames adding though.

I could see Nashville trading the late 1sts they have. They have an aging roster, but the cap situation is very good, and their best players are locked up. They will still be adding a top end prospect to the team as well.

Seattle could put the Tampa picks in play. They have lots of good prospects and youth on the team. The players they traded didn't really hurt their roster. Grubauer back to the Flames could be interesting if we could add those picks.

Montreal has extra picks and a roster on the rise. I could see them trading to get better now.

The two bubble teams are Detroit and Ottawa IMO.

Detroit might be the team if they think they can re-sign him and if you take a contract back.

Petry is UFA but both Holl and Chiarot are overpaid and not performing in the top 4.

Holl + 2025 1st + ????

Ottawa then is the other team if they make the playoffs but get bounced in round 1.

Pinto + 2025 1st.

Main issue with Ottawa is the may not want to move a 1st knowing that they have to forfeit either the 2025 1st or 2026 1st due to the Dadonov trade issues.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The two bubble teams are Detroit and Ottawa IMO.

Detroit might be the team if they think they can re-sign him and if you take a contract back.

Petry is UFA but both Holl and Chiarot are overpaid and not performing in the top 4.

Holl + 2025 1st + ????

Ottawa then is the other team if they make the playoffs but get bounced in round 1.

Pinto + 2025 1st.

Main issue with Ottawa is the may not want to move a 1st knowing that they have to forfeit either the 2025 1st or 2026 1st due to the Dadonov trade issues.

Carolina too. They have some high-end prospects and Orlov and Burns are much older than Rasmus. They have $60 mil committed to 16 players and no costly RFAs. They have 2 1sts next year as well.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The two bubble teams are Detroit and Ottawa IMO.

Detroit might be the team if they think they can re-sign him and if you take a contract back.

Petry is UFA but both Holl and Chiarot are overpaid and not performing in the top 4.

Holl + 2025 1st + ????

Ottawa then is the other team if they make the playoffs but get bounced in round 1.

Pinto + 2025 1st.

Main issue with Ottawa is the may not want to move a 1st knowing that they have to forfeit either the 2025 1st or 2026 1st due to the Dadonov trade issues.

I don't think we get a pick that high, and the other team adds. We maybe get that if we added Fla 1st back.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by blankall

On top of that Rasmus is good now.

He's been pretty bad for awhile this year.

It's one team for a team to gamble money, but to also trade a pick in the 10-15 range?

I could see maybe one team doing it, and that's all it takes. But I would expect even that team to exhaust other possibilities in picks and players before committing such a high pick.

When high picks get traded, its more often for younger players with control rather than aging players requiring big extensions. Especially aging players coming off their worse year.

Many posters here do not want Calgary to sign Anderson for 8 years.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by blankall

On top of that Rasmus is good now. Whereas most picks outside of the top 5 take several yeas to develop. For most teams outside of the top 5, that pick won't develop in the window that their other players are in their prime for.

That is why I thought the Preds might be a good draft day trade partner for the Flames. Their top 2 D are Josi and Skjei, who are both LD. After that their D group drops off massively. However, after chasing big UFAs last summer, their roster is a weird blend of rebuilding and playoff chasing.

They need a good, cheap, RD option for next year when their Duchene buyout is at it's worst (going from $5.5M this year to $6.5M dead cap). Following that the buyout drops to 3 more years at only $1.5M, which frees up $4M of dead space that could go to something like an Andersson extension.

Otherwise, they are going back to the UFA pool to put big money into trying to get Pionk or Ekblad this summer... if they are still available come July 1. (That really won't be ideal for their cap situation.)

Also, the Preds have 3 1st round picks this summer (Preds, TBL, VGK). If they converted their pick into Andersson + NJD 1st then they would still have 3 picks in the 1st round and a RD who can immediately play on the first pairing with their existing star D.