Washington just last year made the playoffs with a -37 goal differential.
Was thinking that but was hoping for a different answer lol since the caps got swept.. although argument could be made for flames being worst. Caps were 5th last in scoring, flames are dead last right now and we don't have an Ovi
Expected Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A), Devils (A), Stars (H), Oilers (A), Avalanche (A), Golden Knights (H), Golden Knights (H),
Quick reminder: How I set my expectations is that the team does better at home and worse on the road and it seems that we do better against bubble and basement teams but struggle against the playoff teams of this season. Currently showing 8-8-4 expectation, depending on how you want to read this list.
...
The Trade Deadline is behind us and here is my update with 2/20 of the remaining games completed.
Section 1: Schedule update
Marching down the stretch: 18 games remaining
Expected Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A), Devils (A), Stars (H), Oilers (A), Avalanche (A), Golden Knights (H), Golden Knights (H),
Results for the final 20 games of the season
Confirmed Wins: Canadiens (H),
Confirmed OTL: Canucks (H)*,
Confirmed Losses:
*Defied expectation
Last night’s game hurt. Not just because we needed the win to hold off the Canucks but also to give us some more space to stay ahead of the Blues and UHC. The rest of the month for the Flames is tough with another difficult east coast road trip (playing 4 games in 6 nights) and then otherwise getting double Avs, Stars, Oilers, and a Kraken game to round out the month.
Expectations for the second half of March are 2-6-1. Yikes. Hopefully we can steal 4+ points above the expected 5/18 points.
Section 2: Playoff standings update
The team is still holding onto WC2.
Canucks are tied with us and Flames have a game in hand
Blues are 2 points back and Flames have a game in hand
UHC are 2 points back and Flames have a game in hand
The Flames have the 18th hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 4-2-4)
Canucks have the 12th hardest (L10 = 4-6-0)
Kings have the 17th hardest (L10 = 5-3-2)
Blues are 32nd hardest... STILL the easiest remaining schedule as of now!!!! (L10 = 7-1-2)
UHC are 23th hardest (L10 = 6-2-2)
Based on the standings, the Canucks are still a threat as they are right with the Flames in the standings. The Blues and UHC see the blood in the water and are moving to attack WC2 with their winning records in their last 10 and easy schedules in front of them.
Section 4: "Top10 draft" update
Flames are 15th overall, tied with Canucks. (1 spot drop from last update)
1 point back is the CBJ
2 points back is the UHC, Blues, and Canadiens.
3 points back is the Red Wings, Rangers, and Bruins
Big drop off to 24OA as the Islanders are 6 points back
3 points separate the Flames from dropping 8 spots in the standings to 23 OA. Somehow the Bruins had their big TDL sale and then won 2 games to keep the path to the 10OA draft pick open.
Section 5: Other 1st round pick update
Devils are 13OA in the standings (1 spot drop)
Panthers are 5OA in the standings (1 spot drop)
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I'm just glad the pick is decided this year and not deferred to 2026, when the flames could be worse. We will still have 2 picks this draft. Give the Habs what is owed, wherever that maybe, and move on. Stop sweating it.
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Only way to save this season right now is to make playoffs. I can't see them vastly outsucking 7 other teams below them to finish the year.
With the points and games they have on some of the teams below them my guess is they have to finish with some combination of 8 points to finish the season to get that 10oa spot. That's a 42 pt pace to finish the rest of the season.
Odds of them being that bad when they are pushing for a playoff spot is the highest level of unlikely.
Last edited by Samonadreau; 03-16-2025 at 01:18 PM.
Those are some pretty rough numbers. I can't remember the last time the Flames were so badly outplayed from an analytics standpoint, for this long of a stretch. If this continues, I think there's a decent chance of a top 10 pick.
Last edited by gvitaly; 03-17-2025 at 07:20 AM.
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Those are some pretty rough numbers. I can't remember the last time the Flames were so badly outplayed from an analytics standpoint, for this long of a stretch. If this continues, I think there's a decent chance of a top 10 pick.
Lol, I had just signed in to post these numbers. Absolutely brutal.
Those stats for the past few weeks are absolutely horrific, but match the eye test.
The only way we squeek into the playoffs is with a bunch of 2-1 wins down the stretch.. not saying Wolf isn't capable, this rookie season he's putting together is the best thing to happen to this franchise in quite some time. But relying on Wolf to drag us into the 2nd Wildcard with all these teams around us playing better and having better schedules is asking alot.
No shame in missing the playoffs this year. Team has shown alot of character, but the skill gap is widening now with the playoff chase on for everybody. and our best skaters are all over 30 yrs old.
Let's see what happens, but I'm starting to feel like 9th-10th overall is quite possible now. Another Parekh-level prospect plz.
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