Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

True. There’s also a much larger list of teams that don’t tear it down and fail than the list of teams that don’t tear down and succeed.

In any given 10 year span, 6 or 7 teams out of 32 win the Cup. Most strategies by most franchises fail.

The probability of winning a cup with a tear down rebuild is low.
The probability of winning a cup without a tear down rebuild is significantly lower.

The probability of drafting a star in the top 5 is low.
The probability of drafting a star outside the top 5 is significantly lower.

I don't know what the exact probabilities are but I'd rather the 15% chance over the 0.01% chance.

[kehatch]

Apologies if this was already linked.

FN posted some data on this season making a case for the Flames to be sellers at the deadline. I agree with most of their points. The Flames are not a good team and are not currently on a trajectory to be a good team.

Conroy's sole focus should be on the future, not on trying to balance both the future and the present.

https://flamesnation.ca/news/the-fla...nd-a-hot-start

[Jiri Hrdina]

Pretty poor article. Lacks any real analysis or depth of thought.
The Flames aren't that great? No kidding.
They should be sellers? OK. What players do they have that other teams want, don't have trade protection and you can extract value from.

Getting a top 10 pick would be good? Wow. So how do you assure yourself of that? Scratch Wolf the rest of the way?

Do some work and write something that goes beyond what any fan could have written. Any of us could have pumped out that article in 10 minutes or less.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Knut

Hoping for the best case scenario here of the Flames battling hard but falling off and ending up in 8-10 range for pick. NJD to implode with Hughes out and end up in the 14-18 Range and FLA to end up 26-31.

It is a possibility. Could also end up with two picks in the 20's... which would be the typical Flames result

Between 5-7and about 25 in this draft their are some really good prospects.

[Paulie Walnuts]

How does that even qualify as an article.

He could have just said trade everyone.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

How does that even qualify as an article.

He could have just said trade everyone.

did you write it?

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Quoting my last post to maintain the history chain of these posts. It is interesting to look back on how the story evolves.

Marching to the Trade Deadline - 7 games remaining:

• Expected Wins:
• Likely Wins: Flyers (A)
• Likely Losses:
• Expected Losses: Capitals (A), Lightning (A), Panthers (A), Hurricane (A), Stars (A)

• Confirmed Wins: Sabres (H), Wild (A)*, Ducks (H), Kraken (A)*, Sharks (H)
• Confirmed OTL: Kraken (H)*
• Confirmed Losses: Jets (A), Capitals (H), Red Wings (H)*, Leafs (H), Avalanche (H),

*Defied expectation

...

Had to go all of the way back to page 62 to find my last post. Wow has this thread gotten predictably crazy since getting into the "Murderer's row" road trip.

Section 1: Marching to the Trade Deadline - 2 games remaining

• Expected Wins:
• Likely Wins: Flyers (A)
• Likely Losses:
• Expected Losses: Stars (A)

• Confirmed Wins: Sabres (H), Wild (A)*, Ducks (H), Kraken (A)*, Sharks (H), Capitals (A)*,
• Confirmed OTL: Kraken (H)*, Hurricane (A)*,
• Confirmed Losses: Jets (A), Capitals (H), Red Wings (H)*, Leafs (H), Avalanche (H), Lightning (A), Panthers (A),

*Defied expectation

Section 2: Playoff standings update
Even with the nightmare roadtrip, the Flames are currently tied for WC2 with the Canucks but with the tiebreaker going in the Flames favour. The Blues are 1 point back (with 2 more games played) and UHC is 2 points back with 1 more game played.

Section 3 Tankathon update

• The Flames have the 16th hardest remaining schedule with two thirds of the road trip behind us
• Canucks have the 7th hardest
• Kings have the 26th hardest
• Blues are 32nd hardest... the easiest remaining schedule as of now!!!!
• UHC are 28th hardest

The Canucks having a hard schedule is great as it allows the Flames to hold them off but the easy schedules for the Blues and UHC make them a threat to holding onto WC2.

Section 4: "Top10 draft" update

• Flames are 16th overall, tied with the Canucks.
• 1 point back is the Senators, Rangers, Bruins, and Blues.
• 2 points back is the Canadiens and UHC.
• 3 points back is the Flyers and Islanders are 4 points back.

Basically, 2 points separate the Flames from dropping 7 spots in the standings and into the top 10 of the draft with the Canucks and Bruins being the only teams on the decline in their last 10 games.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

What do you mean there’s no strategy ? Every team has a strategy to win the cup . They may not all work but they all have a strategy.

Every team has a strategy. NO strategy causes you to win the Stanley Cup unless you also have luck.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Had to go all of the way back to page 62 to find my last post. Wow has this thread gotten predictably crazy since getting into the "Murderer's row" road trip.

Section 1: Marching to the Trade Deadline - 2 games remaining

• Expected Wins:
• Likely Wins: Flyers (A)
• Likely Losses:
• Expected Losses: Stars (A)

• Confirmed Wins: Sabres (H), Wild (A)*, Ducks (H), Kraken (A)*, Sharks (H), Capitals (A)*,
• Confirmed OTL: Kraken (H)*, Hurricane (A)*,
• Confirmed Losses: Jets (A), Capitals (H), Red Wings (H)*, Leafs (H), Avalanche (H), Lightning (A), Panthers (A),

*Defied expectation

Section 2: Playoff standings update
Even with the nightmare roadtrip, the Flames are currently tied for WC2 with the Canucks but with the tiebreaker going in the Flames favour. The Blues are 1 point back (with 2 more games played) and UHC is 2 points back with 1 more game played.

Section 3 Tankathon update

• The Flames have the 16th hardest remaining schedule with two thirds of the road trip behind us
• Canucks have the 7th hardest
• Kings have the 26th hardest
• Blues are 32nd hardest... the easiest remaining schedule as of now!!!!
• UHC are 28th hardest

The Canucks having a hard schedule is great as it allows the Flames to hold them off but the easy schedules for the Blues and UHC make them a threat to holding onto WC2.

Section 4: "Top10 draft" update

• Flames are 16th overall, tied with the Canucks.
• 1 point back is the Senators, Rangers, Bruins, and Blues.
• 2 points back is the Canadiens and UHC.
• 3 points back is the Flyers and Islanders are 4 points back.

Basically, 2 points separate the Flames from dropping 7 spots in the standings and into the top 10 of the draft with the Canucks and Bruins being the only teams on the decline in their last 10 games.

I don’t think the canucks are the team they have to worry about at this point. I think they are done.

[#-3]

what happened to sportstatsclub? I used to really enjoy their model at this time of year.

[dino7c]

Flames arent finishing bottom 10...might as well cheer for playoffs. Cheer for the Devils to tank to get it out of your system

[Flamesfan05]

A top 10 prospect would help for years and very within reach

A playoff is a wasted frustrating week

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

A top 10 prospect would help for years and very within reach

Back to trading Wolf, are we?

A playoff is a wasted frustrating week

Is it more or less frustrating than just missing the playoffs and not getting a top-10 pick?

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Back to trading Wolf, are we?



Is it more or less frustrating than just missing the playoffs and not getting a top-10 pick?

That would be so ####ed up

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

That would be so ####ed up

It happens to six teams each and every year.

Since the salary cap came in, the Flames have made 19 first-round picks. Four of them were in that 11-16 range. People who think the Flames always end up in that range are deluded.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

A top 10 prospect would help for years and very within reach

A playoff is a wasted frustrating week

9th pick or 16th pick or whatever isn't gonna be much different, Flames seem to be getting good fortune with the Devil's luck/play. They still have two first its certainly not a franchise ender like some seem to think

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

It happens to six teams each and every year.

Since the salary cap came in, the Flames have made 19 first-round picks. Four of them were in that 11-16 range. People who think the Flames always end up in that range are deluded.

Well, thanks to the wizard, we would lose the pick if it’s in that range , that’s what I meant ####ed up

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Well, thanks to the wizard, we would lose the pick if it’s in that range , that’s what I meant ####ed up

They also lose the pick if it's later than 16th. And if they keep their own pick, they lose the Florida one.

People get their knickers in a twist so unnecessarily over sunk costs.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Well, thanks to the wizard, we would lose the pick if it’s in that range , that’s what I meant ####ed up

Thanks to the new actual Wizard would would have a pick a couple spots later...think positive thoughts its just a game after all

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by dino7c

9th pick or 16th pick or whatever isn't gonna be much different, Flames seem to be getting good fortune with the Devil's luck/play. They still have two first its certainly not a franchise ender like some seem to think

Wouldn’t that be top 10 vs Florida’s? Something in the 30s