Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[the-rasta-masta]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

The biggest issue is the Flames and Monny didn’t just agree to LTIR him to start the season and then figure it out as the season went on and then sign Kadri

Monahan was ready to start the season that year, he joined the Habs and played immediately. He was healthy and had 17 points in 25 games before being hit with a completely separate foot injury. Why would he have agreed to that?

[Vinny01]

I do wonder what the deal was to ship Lucic back to Boston which was heavily rumored at the time before the team moved Monahan. I assume Sutter/Treliving wanted the beef and truculence that Lucic would provide and Kadri coming in displaced Monahan in the top 9 for centers. I wonder if the same deal would have been on the table in terms of the pick that was given up.

End of the day I have no love for Treliving as he created the mess he put the team in and then bailed when the going got tough. Gaudreau and Tkachuk leaving was not in the least bit shocking. Many thought Johnny would go back east and many thought Tkachuk was given a pass to get out ASAP due to the bridge he signed 3 years prior (because Treliving could not afford to pay him on a long term deal at that time).

The team clearly was managed with emotion in the summer of 22 and Florida sold high on Huberdeau and was willing to sacrifice Weegar in order to land an elite power forward in his prime. Treliving paid an exorbitant price to dump Monahan and was absolutely raped in that deal by the Habs. The Leafs paid a 1st to dump Marleau but that was due to the acquiring team being forced to buy Marleau out and eat the full cap hit. The Flames traded an injured but still in prime age center and could not negotiate the Florida 1st as part of the deal? They needed these ridiculous conditions that like cost the team a pick in the 11-17 range

[Jiri Hrdina]

I strongly believe there was a deal in place to deal Lucic, not necessarily to Boston though. And I think he blocked it.

On the conditions, to me they reinforce that the Habs' starting point was probably that they get "the highest of the two conditions" and it went from there. All the conditions were designed to mitigate it being a disaster for the Flames (e.g. they trade a top 10 pick).

The bottom line is the Flames needed the deal to be done (at least they thought they did) more than the Habs, which put all the leverage in the hands of Montreal. At that point, it seems like the Flames had exhausted trying to move another player (Lucic) and there were few landing spots for Monahan.

Doesn't mean it was a good deal. It wasn't. But those dynamics created the situation that resulted in the deal being what it was.

[Jason14h]

From what I have heard there was never anything regarding Lucic . Just hopes and dreams . Maybe someone can refute ?

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

From what I have heard there was never anything regarding Lucic . Just hopes and dreams . Maybe someone can refute ?

I wmwber that summer a lot of smoke around Lucic to Boston from the guys on Chiclets but that was all I can remember

[Vinny01]

On Treliving one thing I always noticed from his negotiations is when he had leverage he used it but when the tables were turned he was taken advantage of. His RFA deals for the most part were very very good but some of those UFA deals he got bent over on and because he liked spending picks so often he typically had to dip into the free agent pool to address his roster.

Of those great RFA deals: Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm, Hanifin, Andersson, Tkachuk (crappy deal) he (or Conroy) were unable to re-sign any of those players as UFA (Andersson TBD)

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by the-rasta-masta

Monahan was ready to start the season that year, he joined the Habs and played immediately. He was healthy and had 17 points in 25 games before being hit with a completely separate foot injury. Why would he have agreed to that?

So the Flames could have been in a stronger position moving forward .

The issue is Monahan and Sutter and the Flames weren’t seeing eye to eye on many things , he had 1 year left on his contract and wanted to build
Value , so had zero reasons to play along

He easily could had used a month to rehab while the Flames figured out a more strategic way to get him back into the lineup (or had another injury)

Other teams do it all the time

[SuperMatt18]

I heard a rumor that I was never able to validate that there was a deal that could have moved Lucic with a 1st or 2nd (might have been conditional and the rumour I heard was Anaheim) but that Sutter did not agree with moving Lucic and thought he was a "key piece" and wanted to move Monahan instead.

I could have seen Anaheim having interest for sure - that was the 2022 offseason heading into the 22-23 season and Verbeek had a top priority of adding toughness to that team and still is (Gudas, Trouba)

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I heard a rumor that I was never able to validate that there was a deal that could have moved Lucic for a 1st or 2nd (might have been conditional and the rumour I heard was Anaheim) but that Sutter did not agree with moving Lucic and thought he was a "key piece" and wanted to move Monahan instead.

I could have seen Anaheim having interest for sure - that was the 2022 offseason heading into the 22-23 season and Verbeek had a top priority of adding toughness to that team and still is (Gudas, Trouba)

Moving Lucic for a 1st? He had negative value, he was terrible.

You can add toughness for free.

[SuperMatt18]

Sorry meant to say with a 1st or 2nd

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Marching to the Trade Deadline - 7 games remaining:

• Expected Wins: Sharks (H)
• Likely Wins:
• Likely Losses: Flyers (A)
• Expected Losses: Capitals (A), Lightning (A), Panthers (A), Hurricane (A), Stars (A)

• Confirmed Wins: Sabres (H), Wild (A)*, Ducks (H), Kraken (A)*,
• Confirmed OTL: Kraken (H)*
• Confirmed Losses: Jets (A), Capitals (H), Red Wings (H)*, Leafs (H), Avalanche (H),

*Defied expectation

Playoff standings update:
The team has lost ground on the playoff spot and are now 3 points back on the Canucks with even games played.
Demko was injured again in their game against the Leafs but reports are it wasn’t serious and he has a couple of weeks to rest up during the break.

Tankathon Update:

• The Flames have the 11th hardest remaining schedule
• Canucks have the 12th hardest
• Kings have the 20st hardest
• Blues are 14th hardest

"Top10 draft" Update:
Flames are back to the 3-way tie for 17th overall.
Both New York teams and UHC are 2-3 points behind.
Canadiens, Blues, Penguins, and Flyers are all 5 points back.

Quoting my last post to maintain the history chain of these posts. It is interesting to look back on how the story evolves.

Marching to the Trade Deadline - 7 games remaining:

• Expected Wins:
• Likely Wins: Flyers (A)
• Likely Losses:
• Expected Losses: Capitals (A), Lightning (A), Panthers (A), Hurricane (A), Stars (A)

• Confirmed Wins: Sabres (H), Wild (A)*, Ducks (H), Kraken (A)*, Sharks (H)
• Confirmed OTL: Kraken (H)*
• Confirmed Losses: Jets (A), Capitals (H), Red Wings (H)*, Leafs (H), Avalanche (H),

*Defied expectation

^ I moved the Flyers from a likely loss to likely win. Being on the road is a disadvantage for the Flames and the Flyers are currently on a little 2 game win streak but they are also sitting 3-6-1 in their last 10. The other games in the road trip are still expected losses and we are going to need to upset a playoff favourite to avoid getting wiped out but the Flyers game is one that needs to be a win.

Playoff standings update:
The team has gained back ground on the playoff spot and are only 1 point back on the Canucks with a game in hand.
Demko's injury appears to be bad. This could open the door for passing them in the race to WC2 but it is going to come down to which team stumbles less with their respective situations.

Tankathon Update:

• The Flames have the 7th hardest remaining schedule (good for tanking, bad for playoffs)
• Canucks have the 11th hardest
• Kings have the 19th hardest
• Blues are 25th hardest
• UHC are 28th hardest

"Top10 draft" Update:
Flames are back to the 3-way tie for 16th overall, up from 19th OA before the Sharks win.
Bruins are 1 point back, NYR are 2 back, UHC are 3 back, Blues are 4 back and then a 4 team blob is 5 back (NYI, Ducks, Canadiens, Flyers).

[troutman]

After beating Caps, playoff odds still only 37%.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by troutman

After beating Caps, playoff odds still only 37%.

Wonder where that number is if they go something like 3-2-1 on this trip.

[Strange Brew]

Money Puck shows 46.9% chance of making the playoffs.

But those models are questionable IMO. The actual betting odds are more interesting IMO, I don't know what those are saying.

[442scotty]

The Flames already have one more win than I was expecting on this road trip. They might get one more win if they keep playing like this though

[Vinny01]

This is such a difficult part of their schedule so I wonder how their strength of schedule will improve after the deadline considering this 6 game road trip is against 5 of the best teams in the league

[Erick Estrada]

Fair to say the ship has sailed on this thread. I'm eating crow as I thought for sure that this was a bottom 5 team going into the season. Hats off to the coaching staff and players for believing in themselves and working together to make the whole greater than the sum of the parts.

[Paulie Walnuts]

The Lucic to Anaheim rumour was real. Don't know what stopped it but if it was Sutter it doesn't surprise me he shouldn't have had a say in that.

This thread should be closed. It's clearly playoffs or just barely missing.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

The Lucic to Anaheim rumour was real. Don't know what stopped it but if it was Sutter it doesn't surprise me he shouldn't have had a say in that.

This thread should be closed. It's clearly playoffs or just barely missing.

I thought it was Boston.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I thought it was Boston.

Don't think they had the cap to make it work.