The Tariff Thread

[missdpuck]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That's why he's consolidating power and filling any opposition to him with yes men, sycophants and paste eaters. You think he's just gonna stop and turn America around? This is what I mean by delusions people grasp at. You don't actually see what's happening in front of you and are trying to rationalize it away using reason. Stop doing that.


He also doesn't care about the Dow and it's performance like he did in the first term. He doesn't care about American Greatness, or anything people may be clinging to. He cares about himself, and helping out his buddies(or those holding his balls, like Putin). That's it. Everyone else is road kill.

Yep. He is out to destroy the entire free world.

[indes]

Originally Posted by Regorium

I think a lot of it is financial.



Let's assume a new Energy East is a $30B project - much longer than TMX, but less challenging terrain.



What company out there would want to take this type of project on?



South Bow (formerly TC energy that would've been trying KXL) is a $8B market cap company - there's no chance they have the capacity to do it.



Enbridge is a $130B company - still that's a $30B capital project when their capital spending on the entirety of their system is maybe $10B every year. They've also seen what regulatory appetite might look like with their Line 5 issues as well as their Line 3 replacement. They've also focused a lot on US natural gas utilities, as well as export infrastructure in the Gulf Coast - I don't think there's much appetite for them to take on another large oil pipeline.



TC Energy is out of the oil game. Pembina? Inter Pipeline? Wayy too small for this type of project.



I could see a nation building project with Transmountain the Crown corp that could take this on because they have the backing of the Canadian taxpayer - but is there actually enough political will to give another $30B to the O&G industry even in times like this?



I think it's more than regulatory. Even if you told every operator that you'd ignore indigenous claims, ignore the courts, brutally arrest all protestors, veto the provinces and fast-track every approval, and that it's somehow guaranteed past this period of tariffs and also survives through the election, I think the government would still need to front a significant sum of money (like 8-10B up front) before anyone would be remotely enticed to take it on.

100% it would have to be TransMountain with a blank cheque.

No one else touches that project with a 100' pole. That being said let's make it happen, what's $30bn compared to what we're going to lose on the tariffs? Just get it done and promise Quebec some investment into more refining capacity.

[2ArmBands]

Originally Posted by devo22

I'm honestly far too uneducated about Canadian politics to make a fair judgement about Trudeau. From afar, I've never had a bad impression of him.

He has great hair but some of his makeup choices are questionable

[DoubleK]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1897041800290034045

"Tariffs are a big problem and only I can fix it."

Donald J. Trump, probably.

[chummer]

It's positive news but what the heck does a compromise look like?

[Johnny Makarov]

Is Trump going to tariff this too? Canadian snot...

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by chummer

it's positive news but what the heck does a compromise look like?

usmca 2.0?

[Senator Clay Davis]

I think a great compromise would be Trump's death. Dare to dream.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

https://twitter.com/user/status/1897041800290034045

"Tariffs are a big problem and only I can fix it."

Donald J. Trump, probably.

Probably like the last free trade deal. He'll say the tariffs were a bad idea and deny it was ever him... and his base will believe him because yes, they are that dumb.

He is just cooking up something else to screw us over.

[Azure]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1897058279395877061

[LanceUppercut]

Originally Posted by Azure

https://twitter.com/user/status/1897058279395877061

It's safe to assume whenever one of Trump's cronies open their mouths, whatever comes out of it is a complete and utter lie.


#### these #######s.

[Brick]

A Blue Whale'S anus can stretch over a meter wide, making it the second largest ####### on the planet.

[direwolf]

Drop the tariffs and we’ll send you some eggs.

[Mr.Coffee]

Build a ####ing pipeline already.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Drop the tariffs and we’ll send you some eggs.

No, we should make a giant egg omelette at every major border crossing on the Canadian side and feed the birds with it.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Build a ####ing pipeline already.

Liberal talking points sure are scarce with actually doing something other than retaliation tariffs.

Maybe next week we'll have some actually policy in place to make us less dependent on the US.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by keratosis

Somehow he thinks this will bring jobs back to the states. We'll see.

I heard a distressing comment on CBC that something like 50% of business owners surveyed would seriously consider moving to the US if tariffs persist. This was the tech reporter so it might have just been that sector.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Azure

Liberal talking points sure are scarce with actually doing something other than retaliation tariffs.

Maybe next week we'll have some actually policy in place to make us less dependent on the US.

To be fair they are days away from electing a new leader. Major commitments beyond reaction should wait for that.

[direwolf]

Just saw a poll showing that Americans are overwhelmingly against slapping tariffs on Canada. In the same poll it shows that roughly 70% of the electorate believe it would only drive up inflation. Pretty clear that the average American is not happy about this.

[BloodFetish]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

It would certainly cost billions. Many billions. And it would take several years at least, depending on how many spreads are going at once - what you essentially do is build a whole bunch of "sections" of pipelines with different contractors responsible for each, and then they connect. So the amount of time to do the work depends on how many contractors are working on it, and the more you have going at once the higher your cost. Also depends how many of them screw up and take longer or have to have their work "fixed", which is basically inevitable. And there's not an unlimited number of pipeline contractors available to work.

But the time to complete you're referring to is largely a product of regulatory issues. In emergency circumstances like this, there might be adequate political will to dispense with a lot of those issues. Can't run roughshod over indigenous consultation where needed, and the amount of required depends on the pipeline route, of course. But the key issue is whether Quebec tries to veto the thing. Right now might be the ideal time to actually get it done.

Political will was always the weakest link IMO.

As for contractors, maybe a Ukrainian approach where EU and asia invests capital and engineering expertise in our pipeline project in return for discounted rates on LNG and crude as repayment/profit? I would think the EU especially would like as many non-comrade sources of LNG as they can get.