The Tariff Thread

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

When you thought it couldn't get any crazier, they are saying they will retaliate on the retaliatory tariffs by the same amount.

Meaning that the tariff could jump from 25% to 50% basically immediately.

It's in a trump tweet I saw on reddit and frankly I'm too disgusted to screencap and post it here.

I'm dumbfounded right now.

That threat has existed since January when the threat of tariffs was first levied. Escalating tariffs based on retaliation is not new.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

When you thought it couldn't get any crazier, they are saying they will retaliate on the retaliatory tariffs by the same amount.

Meaning that the tariff could jump from 25% to 50% basically immediately.

It's in a trump tweet I saw on reddit and frankly I'm too disgusted to screencap and post it here.

I'm dumbfounded right now.

Does he think punishing his own citizens will garner support? I read somewhere that people in the US still thought other countries paid the tariffs… that even Trump thinks that.

[keratosis]

Somehow he thinks this will bring jobs back to the states. We'll see.

[FlameyMcFlameFace]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Why do you think it's impossible?

Granted I'm no oil and gas professional, so I admittedly have no idea. However being lucky enough to be Calgarian. I have loads of friends in the industry and they tell me:

- the sheer cost and time it would take to build a national wide coast to coast pipeline that supports oil would be massive. Billions of dollars, it would take 10+ years to do it. They are saying not a lot of companies would even want to commit to this kind of project in 2025.

That being said, I have no clue. I just listen to what they say, and take it as face value as they are the professionals in this field.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

It would certainly cost billions. Many billions. And it would take several years at least, depending on how many spreads are going at once - what you essentially do is build a whole bunch of "sections" of pipelines with different contractors responsible for each, and then they connect. So the amount of time to do the work depends on how many contractors are working on it, and the more you have going at once the higher your cost. Also depends how many of them screw up and take longer or have to have their work "fixed", which is basically inevitable. And there's not an unlimited number of pipeline contractors available to work.

But the time to complete you're referring to is largely a product of regulatory issues. In emergency circumstances like this, there might be adequate political will to dispense with a lot of those issues. Can't run roughshod over indigenous consultation where needed, and the amount of required depends on the pipeline route, of course. But the key issue is whether Quebec tries to veto the thing. Right now might be the ideal time to actually get it done.

[FlameyMcFlameFace]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

It would certainly cost billions. Many billions. And it would take several years at least, depending on how many spreads are going at once - what you essentially do is build a whole bunch of "sections" of pipelines with different contractors responsible for each, and then they connect. So the amount of time to do the work depends on how many contractors are working on it, and the more you have going at once the higher your cost. Also depends how many of them screw up and take longer or have to have their work "fixed", which is basically inevitable. And there's not an unlimited number of pipeline contractors available to work.

But the time to complete you're referring to is largely a product of regulatory issues. In emergency circumstances like this, there might be adequate political will to dispense with a lot of those issues. Can't run roughshod over indigenous consultation where needed, and the amount of required depends on the pipeline route, of course. But the key issue is whether Quebec tries to veto the thing. Right now might be the ideal time to actually get it done.

Well then wonderful! Now I want to see our politicians getting it done and talking about it. I want them to talk about how we can get these conversations going tomorrow.

[devo22]

heck of a speech by Trudeau. Colour me impressed.

[Yamer]

Originally Posted by devo22

heck of a speech by Trudeau. Colour me impressed.

I never understood the criticisms that Trudeau isn't well spoken. That's always been one of his major strengths.

That's not aimed at you. Just a general comment.

[5abi]

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1897032856310046744


this is madness

LUTNICK SAYS HE THINKS TRUMP WILL MEET MEXICO, CANADA IN THE MIDDLE ON TARIFFS -FOX BUSINESS INTERVIEW

LUTNICK: WE'RE GOING TO PROBABLY BE ANNOUNCING THAT TOMORROW

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by FlameyMcFlameFace

Well then wonderful! Now I want to see our politicians getting it done and talking about it. I want them to talk about how we can get these conversations going tomorrow.

I agree, at least to see where the bottlenecks are. Get some momentum going, see what's possible.

For reference, Coastal Gaslink spans the entire width of B.C. and took a little under 5 years to do in 8 sections, but you can imagine some of the challenges there with Northern BC's terrain compared to going east, and of course there are other factors besides terrain.

[direwolf]

And what exactly does meeting in the middle look like? Can we just give him another phoney win like back in February?

My guess is this will be about defence spending/NATO commitments.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Yamer

I never understood the criticisms that Trudeau isn't well spoken. That's always been one of his major strengths.

That's not aimed at you. Just a general comment.

I'm honestly far too uneducated about Canadian politics to make a fair judgement about Trudeau. From afar, I've never had a bad impression of him.

[5abi]

Originally Posted by direwolf

And what exactly does meeting in the middle look like? Can we just give him another phoney win like back in February?

My guess is this will be about defence spending/NATO commitments.

####ing Ukraine over

[Goriders]

It would be nice if the leaders of the free world didn’t treat their electorate like pawns on a chess board.

I believe Trump uses market performance as a benchmark for his performance. Cratering the Dow probably doesn’t make him look good.

I still don’t see this lasting forever. If he’s increasing inflation, unemployment and tanking the markets he’s going to get a lot of heat towards cutting to the chase on whatever it is that he’s really after.

[Bonded]

Trump gets sad when the market sells off

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Yamer

I never understood the criticisms that Trudeau isn't well spoken. That's always been one of his major strengths.

That's not aimed at you. Just a general comment.

Because if he gets off script he's not well spoken and gets flustered. He can deliver a prepared statement very well.

[WideReceiver]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Wat? are you thinking of the late Rob Ford? Doug Ford is premier of Ontario...recently re-elected bigly

Of course. I misread the post.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

It would certainly cost billions. Many billions. And it would take several years at least, depending on how many spreads are going at once - what you essentially do is build a whole bunch of "sections" of pipelines with different contractors responsible for each, and then they connect. So the amount of time to do the work depends on how many contractors are working on it, and the more you have going at once the higher your cost. Also depends how many of them screw up and take longer or have to have their work "fixed", which is basically inevitable. And there's not an unlimited number of pipeline contractors available to work.

But the time to complete you're referring to is largely a product of regulatory issues. In emergency circumstances like this, there might be adequate political will to dispense with a lot of those issues. Can't run roughshod over indigenous consultation where needed, and the amount of required depends on the pipeline route, of course. But the key issue is whether Quebec tries to veto the thing. Right now might be the ideal time to actually get it done.

I think a lot of it is financial.

Let's assume a new Energy East is a $30B project - much longer than TMX, but less challenging terrain.

What company out there would want to take this type of project on?

South Bow (formerly TC energy that would've been trying KXL) is a $8B market cap company - there's no chance they have the capacity to do it.

Enbridge is a $130B company - still that's a $30B capital project when their capital spending on the entirety of their system is maybe $10B every year. They've also seen what regulatory appetite might look like with their Line 5 issues as well as their Line 3 replacement. They've also focused a lot on US natural gas utilities, as well as export infrastructure in the Gulf Coast - I don't think there's much appetite for them to take on another large oil pipeline.

TC Energy is out of the oil game. Pembina? Inter Pipeline? Wayy too small for this type of project.

I could see a nation building project with Transmountain the Crown corp that could take this on because they have the backing of the Canadian taxpayer - but is there actually enough political will to give another $30B to the O&G industry even in times like this?

I think it's more than regulatory. Even if you told every operator that you'd ignore indigenous claims, ignore the courts, brutally arrest all protestors, veto the provinces and fast-track every approval, and that it's somehow guaranteed past this period of tariffs and also survives through the election, I think the government would still need to front a significant sum of money (like 8-10B up front) before anyone would be remotely enticed to take it on.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Goriders

It would be nice if the leaders of the free world didn’t treat their electorate like pawns on a chess board.

I believe Trump uses market performance as a benchmark for his performance. Cratering the Dow probably doesn’t make him look good.

I still don’t see this lasting forever. If he’s increasing inflation, unemployment and tanking the markets he’s going to get a lot of heat towards cutting to the chase on whatever it is that he’s really after.

That's why he's consolidating power and filling any opposition to him with yes men, sycophants and paste eaters. You think he's just gonna stop and turn America around? This is what I mean by delusions people grasp at. You don't actually see what's happening in front of you and are trying to rationalize it away using reason. Stop doing that.


He also doesn't care about the Dow and it's performance like he did in the first term. He doesn't care about American Greatness, or anything people may be clinging to. He cares about himself, and helping out his buddies(or those holding his balls, like Putin). That's it. Everyone else is road kill.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by WideReceiver

From one of my favourite podcasters. Folks should check Craig out. Tariffs failed back then.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1896967412790276303

For people wanting to avoid the cesspool:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...oogle_vignette