American Politics 4.0 - Orangeyou Glad He’s Back?

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Why fake hell?

Hell is a made up concept

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Because it doesn’t exist.

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Hell is a made up concept

I thought that was known, the word fake is redundant.

[marsplasticeraser]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

That's because they are to ####ing dumb to understand what is happening.

I look at what's happening to the US as what happened with Brexit.

Brexit was just so obviously a terrible idea economically from the start. Any logical thought would see that losing 500 million consumers overnight would destroy an economy, nevermind all the ohter issues around residence, travel, and military cooperation.

This is happening in the US, the future is so clearly not great, but people don't care.

- What does the threat of tariffs do? It gets trading partners to look at other tariff free countries to source future materials. This drags down the US Economy.

- What do actual tariffs do? They lead to price increases for any items that have a tariff. Further, when applied to raw materials that are the building blocks of the american economy it hits the entire economy.

- What happens when hundreds of thousands of middle class workers lose their jobs and income as thier government jobs are liquidated? You have a drag on the economy as they can't pay their bills.

- What happens when the available labour pool expands by hundreds of thousands? Wages go down, and it gets harder to find a job, with longer time frames between jobs. This means people save more and spend less, dragging down the economy??

- What happens when you deport all the people who harvest crops in your country? Farmers will struggle to harvest their crops, food prices will rise dramatically for your citizens.

- What happens when you can't rely on the contract you signed with somebody? You probably look to stop working with them. If you do work with them you drastically shorten time-scales to 'break-even', leading to very short-term collaborations.

- What happens when your partner starts treating you badly? Like a marriage, often your partner will leave and find somebody new. So when you want them back they have found somebody else.

What is wild is this is all logic an elementary child will figure out.

But people don't. A good book to understand why people don't want to konw this is this by Jonathan Haidt: https://www.indigo.ca/en-ca/the-righ...307455772.html

[WideReceiver]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Who's saying this?

I paraphrased the sentiment of many Trump voters who claim they didn’t know how Trump’s policies (many of which he made no secret of) would affect them so personally and severely.

For example, “he’s deporting my wife. I never expected that.” Or, “I knew he’d fire people but had no idea it’d be my husband.”

Well, morons, he told you what he’d do, or he claimed to have no knowledge of Project 2025 but he lied about that, like he did about everything.

I have no sympathy.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I thought that was known, the word fake is redundant.

Sorry. I thought you were a bible thumper... lol

[EldrickOnIce]

I'll just add that everyone I know who are big Trumpers are thrilled with what Musk is doing, and hate everything to do with tariffs on Canada and Mexico. They believe the intended tariffs there are just a negotiating tactic, as obviously implementing will drive up prices/costs in America. We will see I guess.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Who's saying this?

From what I can gather, people who voted for Trump love what he's doing right now. They like the tough trade talk, they like his immigration crackdown.

He still has a negative approval rating which is basically unheard of at this point in an administration. Biden was +20 this early on and he was the 2nd least popular President at the start of his administration after Trump.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by opendoor

He still has a negative approval rating which is basically unheard of at this point in an administration. Biden was +20 this early on and he was the 2nd least popular President at the start of his administration after Trump.

Five days ago he had positive rating. I haven't seen anything change.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

I'll just add that everyone I know who are big Trumpers are thrilled with what Musk is doing, and hate everything to do with tariffs on Canada and Mexico. They believe the intended tariffs there are just a negotiating tactic, as obviously implementing will drive up prices/costs in America. We will see I guess.

This is isolationism, like Brexit.

Too late though, world is too globalized now.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Five days ago he had positive rating. I haven't seen anything change.

What poll(s)? He was negative in the Gallup poll at the start of his term (first President in history to achieve that) and is negative in most credible polls I've seen recently.

Aggregators include junk right-wing polls like Trafalgar and Rasmussun that have him +10 and which had him with a positive rating even after January 6th, so those are going to skew the aggregate numbers.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by opendoor

What poll(s)? He was negative in the Gallup poll at the start of his term (first President in history to achieve that) and is negative in most credible polls I've seen recently.

Aggregators include junk right-wing polls like Trafalgar and Rasmussun that have him +10 and which had him with a positive rating even after January 6th, so those are going to skew the aggregate numbers.

According to these polls, it was positive 5 days ago.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-a...poll-2025-2-9/

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Five days ago he had positive rating. I haven't seen anything change.

I'm curious about your source

edit: that is not an approval rating

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I'm curious about your source

edit: that is not an approval rating

There's an approval rating in that link, 53-47 approve based on a Yougov poll from Feb 5-7.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

There's an approval rating in that link, 53-47 approve based on a Yougov poll from Feb 5-7.

The latest yougov poll is 46-53 (Feb 9-11) which is, like the poster said really bad for a first month

also not sure where they got that info because 50 is as high a yougov approval rating ever for Trumpie....

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../donald-trump/

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

This is isolationism, like Brexit.

Too late though, world is too globalized now.

It's protectionism. He's betting on international companies coming to the US to produce where they won't have tariffs. Like what happened in China. If they don't, it will be bad for the US.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

According to these polls, it was positive 5 days ago.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-a...poll-2025-2-9/

That's one poll though. And the only ones recently showing similar are from GOP-aligned firms like Echelon, Quantus, Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc. which makes them a bit suspect. However, aggregators include them, which pushes the overall number upwards.

Whereas firms that have traditionally been pretty high quality like Gallup, Marquette, Ipsos, YouGov (other than the one CBS poll), etc. are showing either negative approval or very narrow positive approval ratings.

Trump is more popular than in his first term, but I think people underestimate the honeymoon effect. Like I said, Biden was +20 at this point in his term.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by dino7c

The latest yougov poll is 46-53 (Feb 9-11) which is, like the poster said really bad for a first month

also not sure where they got that info because 50 is as high a yougov approval rating ever for Trumpie....

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../donald-trump/

Favorability and approval aren't the same thing though. Someone can dislike a President and still think they're doing a good job. That's why most Presidents, even ones who won very close elections, tend to have +20 to +40 approval ratings at the start of their term. Trump is the only one that hasn't.

[photon]

Happy Feb 14!

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Favorability and approval aren't the same thing though. Someone can dislike a President and still think they're doing a good job. That's why most Presidents, even ones who won very close elections, tend to have +20 to +40 approval ratings at the start of their term. Trump is the only one that hasn't.

Okay the latest yougov APPROVAL rating is 47% so I guess he gains 1% on technicality. The red homer ratings have him low 50s

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

The latest yougov poll is 46-53 (Feb 9-11) which is, like the poster said really bad for a first month

also not sure where they got that info because 50 is as high a yougov approval rating ever for Trumpie....

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../donald-trump/

One thing to note is 538 dropped Rasmussen from its rankings for not disclosing methodologies of their polling and potential conflicts of interest so that’s likely why it’s different from the RCP polling average of +2.8

You also have favourability at slightly minus on eco
https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...itical-leaders

And job approval

https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol...pproval-rating

+2.8

I think the best that can be said right now is he has about a 50/50 split right now which his historically bad.