Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Since 2014 violent crime is up 45% and homicides 54%

So yes - dramatic

These stats are readily available

What were they at before then? Honestly you could be making a very valid argument but just saying percentages like that in itself without the actual number of crimes doesn’t really paint a very good picture.

Like if there was 1 murder across the country last year and this year there are 2, that’s a 100% increase. But it’s far less of a concern than if we had say 500 murders and that increased to 1000.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

What were they at before then? Honestly you could be making a very valid argument but just saying percentages like that in itself without the actual number of crimes doesn’t really paint a very good picture.

Like if there was 1 murder across the country last year and this year there are 2, that’s a 100% increase. But it’s far less of a concern than if we had say 500 murders and that increased to 1000.

You know how to use google ! And you know it wasn’t 1 to 2

Breaking a long term decreasing trend line and increasing 50% in 12 years is a massive issue .

Let’s not pretend people are dumb to care about this .

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It looks like property crimes contribute a lot to that total number. Violent crime is a lot more of a flat line showing a recent upward trend toward the high numbers in 1992.

Property crimes suck, but I don't think they cause as much worry as violent crimes.

It looks flat but don't let the scale fool you. If the y max was set at 20,000 the line would be pretty much perfectly flat.
Violent crime rate reached a recent low of 736 in 2014 and in 2023 was 967. An increase of 31%. That is hardly flat.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I make all my policy decisions by using the Azure anecdotal rage crime index. It's kind of all over the place, but it makes justifying irrational choices more comfortable.

Agreed. Much easier to make decisions off of vibes than actually presenting any evidence to support your claims.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

You know how to use google ! And you know it wasn’t 1 to 2

Breaking a long term decreasing trend line and increasing 50% in 12 years is a massive issue .

Let’s not pretend people are dumb to care about this .

Dude, I’m trying to have a reasonable discussion with you. Why not just share the actual data you’re basing your position on? I’m sure if I google crime statistics I’ll get all sorts of different results so why not save us both the time?

You could very well be right but the way you are presenting your argument and data isn’t making a strong case.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

I find that government decisions that don't benefit the people, but sends money or land.... somewhere.... is a pretty good barometre for corruption.

That’s the majority of them.

[shotinthebacklund]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Dude, I’m trying to have a reasonable discussion with you. Why not just share the actual data you’re basing your position on? I’m sure if I google crime statistics I’ll get all sorts of different results so why not save us both the time?

You could very well be right but the way you are presenting your argument and data isn’t making a strong case.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...iolent-crimes/
I already provided the link for this exact question.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Let's be honest. The knife definitely cuts both ways. Because funny enough, I was thinking the exact opposite perspective, but the same observation. The same people outraged at the Liberal's scandals are doing mental gymnastics to try to explain away why Smith and her government still get a pass on this AHS one.

It’s extra funny when you consider what the actual ask here is. People are upset about UCP corruption. They want a public inquiry and resignations.

Those are… the exact same things the Liberals have endured. Seems pretty consistent. But the UCP supporters were happy to cheer those on, yet are entirely resistant to the UCP being held to the same standard, and instead are trying to reverse-logic their way out of having to care about.

Is it good Liberal corruption was investigated, people were held accountable, and politicians were forced to resign? Or… not?

Originally Posted by Jason14h

So when should people worry ? When it’s out of hand ?

Come on you can’t seriously be arguing a 50% increase in a decade isn’t an issue (I’m even leaving out the whole reported problem))

People can worry now. It’s a number you want going down, not up, and it’s going up, so how do we properly address it? (Cliff had a great post on this). But we’re talking about perception vs reality here, right? And how those things don’t always match?

Like, saying it’s gone up 50% sounds dramatic and crazy, but when you consider the fact that it’s against an all-time low, it’s less dramatic, less crazy. Perception vs reality. Like saying “my taxes went up 50%!” when they were 2% and are now 3% (for example). Context really, really matters.

As an aside, it’s also funny you used that stat after taking issue with the graph.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

It looks flat but don't let the scale fool you. If the y max was set at 20,000 the line would be pretty much perfectly flat.
Violent crime rate reached a recent low of 736 in 2014 and in 2032 was 967. An increase of 31%. That is hardly flat.

I get that.

The idea of lumping property crime and violent crime together to show total crime is pretty pointless. It would be like lumping the common cold with cancer to show a total trend for diseases. It's just a way to saturate the data and drastically changes how it is presented.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by shotinthebacklund

Going forward, I will no longer respond to anything you comment even in your petty attacks against me.

Just like you said last week, I’m sure it’s true this time.

But I’ll live. I’ll keep bringing facts in the face of made up stories and will happily do it without someone calling me “vile” and other names and then whining about petty attacks.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I get that.

The idea of lumping property crime and violent crime together to show total crime is pretty pointless. It would be like lumping the common cold with cancer to show a total trend for diseases. It's just a way to saturate the data and drastically changes how it is presented.

Okay, you said you aren't as worried about property crime as violent crime. Is a 31% increase in violent crime in 9 years a concern?

[shotinthebacklund]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I get that.

The idea of lumping property crime and violent crime together to show total crime is pretty pointless. It would be like lumping the common cold with cancer to show a total trend for diseases. It's just a way to saturate the data and drastically changes how it is presented.

The value sentimental or monetary, is just the vary baseline of the crime for property crime. A break and enter has a profound impact on people emotionally and mentally.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

100 percent.

So where do you stand? Is corruption acceptable? Would you vote for a corrupt government?

For me, it's tough, because it feels like everyone's corrupt. I'll probably vote Cons because of the Liberal corruption needs to be punished, and NDP for provincial because the UCP needs to know there's also consequences to their corruption.

Plus, honestly, I trust Nenshi more than Smith at this point. Smith has shown time and time again, she has no integrity.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Since 2014 violent crime is up 45% and homicides 54%

So yes - dramatic

These stats are readily available

Per capita?

[afc wimbledon]

Violent crime was almost double what we have now in the 1990's, 10,000 incidents per 100,000 as against the 5000 we have now, if you factor in both population increases and the fact that the police respond and arrest for a far lower bar than they ever used to, no one got arrested for a brawl in a bar back in the 90's, they were just all dropped in city cells than kicked out in the morning, now everyone cops a charge.

Violent crime is massively down, my guess is we approaching historic lows, what is up are stupid stories about how the world is ending on twitter

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Azure

Also, police reported crime rates.

How ignorant do you have to be to use a police reported crime rate statistic to push the stupid idea that crime rates are going down?

Sheesh.

Do you think crime is more or less reported today vs. 10/20/30 years ago?

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by shotinthebacklund

The value sentimental or monetary, is just the vary baseline of the crime for property crime. A break and enter has a profound impact on people emotionally and mentally.

Break and enters have decreased in Canada in 1 year, 5 year, 10 year, and 2 year segments.

Over the last 20 years, it has decreased every year but two.

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

For me, it's tough, because it feels like everyone's corrupt. I'll probably vote Cons because of the Liberal corruption needs to be punished, and NDP for provincial because the UCP needs to know there's also consequences to their corruption.

Plus, honestly, I trust Nenshi more than Smith at this point. Smith has shown time and time again, she has no integrity.

That is fair.

At least we seem to be on the same page that corruption should not be rewarded with votes. It’s really most impactful way to tell government how we feel about it. Don’t vote for a corrupt party.

[Ped]

The Liberals are one of the most corrupt governments that we've seen (that we know about). Of course, in a vaccuum, voting for them again is stupid. But in reality, people have to weigh that against voting for a Conservative government, that so far, doesn't have much than slogans, and their leader and many members have been cozying up to far-right figures and freedom convoy people, which would naturally put many people ill at ease.



Plus, you have Conservative governments in ONtario and Alberta, among others, that are showing to be pretty corrupt themselves. I mean, Doug Ford wants to build a tunnel under the 401, for crying out loud. And he leads the polls!


It's far too simplistic to say "Don't vote Liberal because they're so corrupt" when you loo at who else is running. And I say this as someone who has never voted Liberal.

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Ped

The Liberals are one of the most corrupt governments that we've seen (that we know about). Of course, in a vaccuum, voting for them again is stupid. But in reality, people have to weigh that against voting for a Conservative government, that so far, doesn't have much than slogans, and their leader and many members have been cozying up to far-right figures and freedom convoy people, which would naturally put many people ill at ease.



Plus, you have Conservative governments in ONtario and Alberta, among others, that are showing to be pretty corrupt themselves. I mean, Doug Ford wants to build a tunnel under the 401, for crying out loud. And he leads the polls!


It's far too simplistic to say "Don't vote Liberal because they're so corrupt" when you loo at who else is running. And I say this as someone who has never voted Liberal.

I’m not saying that you have to vote conservative because the liberals are corrupt.

Personally, I would not vote for the corrupt party. Period.

You can tie the provincial parties to the federal parties if you like, but that really looks bad for Nenshi. Yikes.