Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by edn88

Given where this team is, I hate even hearing tank. I think that you have to reward the guys who are here and keep trying to make the playoffs until you don't.

Maybe everyone thought this group of guys was going to fail, but somehow the coaches have gotten these guys to overperform. Let them overperform - even if that means missing the playoffs or going out in the first round.

I think it helps develop our younger players including Wolf. Don't allow a loser mindset to creep in.

I don't think this team needs to talk about doing more to try to intentionally tank. Either they will continue to defy expectations and hold off the Blues and Canucks from passing them or they will lose games that are one the road and/or to the playoff contenders.

This is how I look at the schedule leading up to the trade deadline.

Expected Wins: Sabres (H), Ducks (H), Sharks (H)
Likely Wins: Red Wings (H), Kraken (H)
Likely Losses: Kraken (A), Flyers (A)
Expected Losses: Wild (A), Jets (A), Caps (H), Leafs (H), Avs (H), Caps (A), Lightning (A), Panthers (A), Hurricane (A), Stars (A)

The X factor to this list is determining which games Wolf will play. Maybe he can move a bunch of those games into the win column... but I think these are safe and objective expectations for the upcoming schedule.

[Bingo]

23rd place team is now a game over .500.

Calgary only needs to be 4 games under .500 the rest of the way to tie them.

That's the best case scenario ... have the 10th worst team move upward while the Flames keep the Panthers in check.

[stemit14]

If we look at the flames current points percentage (0.567) and apply that same points percentage to the remainder of available points to be had in the season (37 games x 2 points-per-game), we end up with the flames gaining an additional 42 points in the remaining games this season. That puts the flames at 93 points to end the season.

Does that leave the flames in a playoff spot to end the season? Assuming everyone keeps their current points percentage pace.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by stemit14

If we look at the flames current points percentage (0.567) and apply that same points percentage to the remainder of available points to be had in the season (37 games x 2 points-per-game), we end up with the flames gaining an additional 42 points in the remaining games this season. That puts the flames at 93 points to end the season.

Does that leave the flames in a playoff spot to end the season? Assuming everyone keeps their current points percentage pace.

Well, if you assume everyone keeps at the same point %, they'd stay right where they are.
So yes, they'd make the playoffs in 8th place. You don't even need to calculate the points.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Well, if you assume everyone keeps at the same point %, they'd stay right where they are.
So yes, they'd make the playoffs in 8th place. You don't even need to calculate the points.

Is 93 points usually enough to make the playoffs?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by stemit14

Is 93 points usually enough to make the playoffs?

If you assume everyone will continue at their current pace, then the order of the standings will remain the same.

It doesn't matter what the points are in that scenario.

If we DON'T assume that other teams will continue on their current paces, then no, 93 points probably won't be enough.

[Paulie Walnuts]

I thought 96 points was the cut off, and some instances in crazy years 100 points.

99 got you in in 21/22
95 got you in in 22/23
98 23/24

So yeah, you should be shooting for 96 or more

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by stemit14

If we look at the flames current points percentage (0.567) and apply that same points percentage to the remainder of available points to be had in the season (37 games x 2 points-per-game), we end up with the flames gaining an additional 42 points in the remaining games this season. That puts the flames at 93 points to end the season.

Does that leave the flames in a playoff spot to end the season? Assuming everyone keeps their current points percentage pace.

I like mathing it out but the eyeball test of the season still makes me feel like the back half of the season is harder than the front half.

- We still have more road games than home games remaining.
- March in particular is going to be a really tough schedule with 10/15 games on the road.
- In the remaining 37 games it looks like we are playing more teams that are above us in the standings than below. (20 games against teams above us and 17 games against teams below us)

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If you assume everyone will continue at their current pace, then the order of the standings will remain the same.

It doesn't matter what the points are in that scenario.

If we DON'T assume that other teams will continue on their current paces, then no, 93 points probably won't be enough.

Not trying to be picky
but
This isn't necessarily true. It depends on games played to this point
for instance, if Points % doesn't change for anyone for the rest of the year,
Edmonton overtakes Vegas, Dallas overtakes Minnesota and LA finishes higher than Colorado.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

Not trying to be picky
but
This isn't necessarily true. It depends on games played to this point
for instance, if Points % doesn't change for anyone for the rest of the year,
Edmonton overtakes Vegas, Dallas overtakes Minnesota and LA finishes higher than Colorado.

I don't want to be picky either, but if you were already ranking them by points percentage (as I would), then no, there would be no further changes.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I don't want to be picky either, but if you were already ranking them by points percentage (as I would), then no, there would be no further changes.

I think the original poster was just saying to apply the current points percentage to the remaining games. everyone has a different amount of games remaining. so the standings could change

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

I think the original poster was just saying to apply the current points percentage to the remaining games. everyone has a different amount of games remaining. so the standings could change

but if you start with points percentage, and keep them all the same, then no, the standings wouldn't change

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Only if the Panthers win 2 rounds...I think they are showing signs of 2 long runs

Sam Bennett has gone absolutely ice cold. He's had 1 goal and 5 points since December 1 and only two assists since December 10th. Maybe he's injured, but that's certainly hurting his team and his chances of getting $7m+ a year on his next contract.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

but if you start with points percentage, and keep them all the same, then no, the standings wouldn't change

Since all teams don't have the same number of games remaining, the points percentage calculated against a differing number of games could change the standings.

eg.

36 games x .583 = 21 pts
40 games x .575 = 23 pts

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by D as in David

Since all teams don't have the same number of games remaining, the points percentage calculated against a differing number of games could change the standings.

eg.

36 games x .583 = 21 pts
40 games x .575 = 23 pts

But the 1st team would currently be up by 5 points and would remain ahead.

If you currently have a higher points percentage, and it remains higher, you will remain ahead. Math is hard, but it isn't that hard.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

But the 1st team would currently be up by 5 points and would remain ahead.

If you currently have a higher points percentage, and it remains higher, you will remain ahead. Math is hard, but it isn't that hard.

Yes, when you understood the whole math problem, you were correct.

[Enoch Root]

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

But the 1st team would currently be up by 5 points and would remain ahead.

If you currently have a higher points percentage, and it remains higher, you will remain ahead. Math is hard, but it isn't that hard.

Yes, if you have a higher points percentage than another team, but not more points than them, it means you have more games remaining. So in the theoretical scenario in which the points percentage of every team remains the same from now until the end of the regular season, the final standings in total points will be the same as the current standings in points percentage.

[D as in David]

Yet, here we are discussing the math of a next-to-impossible scenario.

[Jay Random]

Of course teams can and will change places in the standings if they maintain the same points percentage. Some teams are behind in the standings ONLY because they have games in hand.

Example: Boston is now in 15th place overall with 52 points in 48 games and a .542 points percentage. Calgary is 16th, with 51 points in 45 games and a .567.

If Boston finishes the season at the same .542 pace, it will get 37 points in its remaining 34 games and finish with 89. If Calgary finishes at the same .567 pace, it will get 42 points in its remaining 37 games and finish with 93. Calgary passes Boston by 4 points, in spite of being a point behind now.

Remember, the NHL standings are calculated on actual points earned, not on points percentage.