Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Fuzz]

Harper had pretty crappy french at the start, didn't he? But he learned and improved. I suspect Mark will be fine, he seems like a smart chap.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Whynotnow

Boissanault already endorsed Freeland. Carney went to high school here and his dad ran for office here, so I suspect that’s why here.

Good to know and that obviously makes a lot of sense. I was wondering if maybe the relationship between Randy and Carney was fractured.

If anyone is watching CBC Power and Politics right now they are doing a panel discussing the Carney announcement and both David Cochrane and the panelists are ripping into Carney pretty aggressively. They are attacking him on a number of fronts including his delivery (scripted message/teleprompter stuff), his french speaking, his messaging in general regarding his ties to the current government and other things. If and when a video link is available I will post it.

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Let's just accept, for the sake of argument, that Alberta is prepared to essentially nationalize energy exporting in Alberta. And let's also suppose that, for some reason, the federal Crown lacks the constitutional authority to charge a tariff to a provincial Crown (I have no idea whether or not this is true - I don't see any obvious reason why it would be true but I'm not going to spend any time thinking about it because of the following).

If those two things are true, the federal government will just achieve its policy goal (of inflicting economic harm on the United States) by prohibiting the export of energy to the United States.

Masterfully played, Premier Smith.

They are constitutionally prohibited to do the first, for sure. One gov't cannot tax another gov't.

I'm not certain of the facts, but I think may be constitutionally prohibited from doing the second. It would probably get litigated, either way. Also, I believe prohibiting export is physically impossible, as that's not exactly how pipelines and oil production work. But I'm not sure on this point. Either way, the idea of stopping delivery of oil is a much more aggressive stance than just taxing the export. I doubt they would consider it.

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

The most frustrating part about how Smith has handled these tariffs is that she effectively took away any leverage she would have had if she had publicly supported the other premieres first.

I’ve said it before that I have no issue with her meeting with Trump, in fact I think that it’s important to have dialogue with his camp and the idea of giving them what equates to the silent treatment out of spite is counterproductive. But I think her appeasement approach has taken away an opportunity for her to work with the other provinces to further our interests over the long run while simultaneously further entrenching us in the current system of only having one major market that hasn’t been working.

In my opinion a better approach would have been to say to the provinces you need our help right now and we’re willing to help you, but we also need your help in return so we need you to play ball. From a negotiation perspective it is always better to have something on the table that the other party doesn’t want to lose that you are willing to continue giving them if they give you something you want.

Her approach has been we’re not going to give you anything because you haven’t worked with us in the past, so if you give us something now that we’ve already harmed you we’ll consider helping.

I’m sure someone will try and flip that around to say that is the approach other provinces have take with us. Without agreeing or disagreeing on whether that has occurred we can all probably come to the conclusion that that approach really hasn’t helped anyone. So if we want our government to be the “grown-ups” in the room we have to change our approach. It’s rare for two sides that dig their heels to get anything of substance done.

It just seems like a really great opportunity for the province of Alberta and Canada as a whole has been squandered by someone who is a lousy negotiator and acting in her own self interest by being more concerned with convincing her base that she’s “standing up to Ottawa”.

Even if she is successful in getting oil and gas exports excluded from Trump’s tariff(which could happen), the smarter play in the long run would have been to use this rare moment of leverage to set us up better in the long run by increasing our capacity for overseas exports. Frankly had she played this a little more tactfully she could have potentially gotten both

This is the best post on the topic so far. I agree with you.

Smith should have stayed silent, and told the other provinces that her silence or even agreement to leave oil on the table is contingent on their commitment to eliminate or vastly reduce transfer payments, and commitments on how oil and gas would be regulated at the federal level, and commitments on how pipelines are regulated in the future.

She can always come out and say later that Alberta oil isn't on the table, but she had some time to really hammer the other provinces in negotiating a better position for Alberta in confederation. Maybe she tried it. Maybe she still will.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I don't think Carney's attempt to distance himself from Trudeau's PMO is going to work even though he wasn't in cabinet. I don't think the vast majority of voters are going to care, or look that closely, and come to the determination that he's not actually a Trudeau loyalist. I think no matter who wins the LPC leadership, the best they can hope for is to limit the damage and get official opposition status in the 60-80 seat range. I don't think they can realistically prevent a CPC majority.

Essentially, I think that no matter how good a campaign they run - and I am skeptical it'll be good with either Carney or ESPECIALLY Freeland at the helm - that they're going to be able to close the gap substantially. Like Kamala's campaign down south, it's doomed from the start just due to sharing a party with the incumbent.

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I don't think Carney's attempt to distance himself from Trudeau's PMO is going to work even though he wasn't in cabinet. I don't think the vast majority of voters are going to care, or look that closely, and come to the determination that he's not actually a Trudeau loyalist. I think no matter who wins the LPC leadership, the best they can hope for is to limit the damage and get official opposition status in the 60-80 seat range. I don't think they can realistically prevent a CPC majority.

Essentially, I think that no matter how good a campaign they run - and I am skeptical it'll be good with either Carney or ESPECIALLY Freeland at the helm - that they're going to be able to close the gap substantially. Like Kamala's campaign down south, it's doomed from the start just due to sharing a party with the incumbent.

Freeland has given the public and the CPC more than enough rope.

Carney's position as a very public figure, often saying very stupid things, is giving a ton of ammunition for the inevitable, and endless CPC attack ads.

[TherapyforGlencross]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Carney is also trying to distance himself from Trudeau, effectively calling the Liberals (still lead by Trudeau today) a complete failure on the economy.

Is he a Liberal, or a Conservative? He's quite literally giving all the soundbites to the Conservatives on a silver platter? Not even remotely diplomatic about it.

I see it as a man who may have internally expressed displeasure with the way Trudeau and Freeland operated Canadian economics. Appears to have moderate takes.

He’s got my vote, if the platform released is solid.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I would be surprised if either potential leader is expecting an actual win in the next election. Official Opposition is probably the best case, but that would leave them in a pretty good spot for the election after that. Milhouse isn't likely to inspire and the CPC's 3 word slogans won't likely work. Like it or not, I don't think you can kill the liberal party.

[Fuzz]

A Conservative minority and an election in 2 years would go a good way to cleaning out all the crap in all the parties.

[puffnstuff]

I do want Carney to ask pp what his plan is for after his Axe the Tax, what happens then? What is the plan beyond the slogan?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

I do want Carney to ask pp what his plan is for after his Axe the Tax, what happens then? What is the plan beyond the slogan?

something like

a. Axe the Tax

b. ????

c. WIN!!!

[MelBridgeman]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

i do want carney to ask pp what his plan is for after his axe the tax, what happens then? What is the plan beyond the slogan?

extract ship prosper.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Slava

So a qualified, non-conspiracy centre-right candidate? Sounds like a problem for the the CPC.

If only the Reform Party grew a brain and give us a reasonable choice and not these terrible rightwing deplorable morons.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

They are constitutionally prohibited to do the first, for sure. One gov't cannot tax another gov't.

I'm not certain of the facts, but I think may be constitutionally prohibited from doing the second. It would probably get litigated, either way. Also, I believe prohibiting export is physically impossible, as that's not exactly how pipelines and oil production work. But I'm not sure on this point. Either way, the idea of stopping delivery of oil is a much more aggressive stance than just taxing the export. I doubt they would consider it.

The bolded is clear, because in addition to not knowing who owns the oil, how import and exports work and who has jurisdiction over what, you’re wrong about the constitution.

As stated, exports of natural resources falls under federal jurisdiction. Crown corporations or other entities, whether owned by the provincial government or not, are not exempt from any export taxes on those resources.

Alberta already owns the natural resources. No paper transactions are required to put ownership in their name. They already own it. And provincial crown corporations, while immune from federal income tax and have some tax immunity generally, lose part of that immunity when they operate as commercial entities as opposed to activities integral to the functional of the government. Among the federal taxes they are not immune to are both the GST/HST and, you guessed it, export taxes, as that is the sole jurisdiction of the federal government.

Perhaps ideology is blinding you a bit and causing confusing between what is true and what you want to be true, but sorry, the facts are not on your side.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

Freeland has given the public and the CPC more than enough rope.

Carney's position as a very public figure, often saying very stupid things, is giving a ton of ammunition for the inevitable, and endless CPC attack ads.

has PP petted any lumber lately?

Or said stuff like like this?

https://x.com/liberal_party/status/1714377009114104066

https://www.reddit.com/r/onguardfort...four_separate/

Once he said "Politics should not be a lifelong career, and elected officials should not be allowed to fix themselves in the halls of power of a nation." LMFAO

Or "Any politician promising not to raise your taxes is like a vampire promising to become a vegetarian."

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by MelBridgeman

extract ship prosper.

you forgot "burn up"

[MelBridgeman]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

you forgot "burn up"

and trickle down!

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by MelBridgeman

and trickle down!

The only thing tricking down will be piss (while we're told it's raining).

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

has PP petted any lumber lately?

Or said stuff like like this?

https://x.com/liberal_party/status/1714377009114104066

https://www.reddit.com/r/onguardfort...four_separate/

Once he said "Politics should not be a lifelong career, and elected officials should not be allowed to fix themselves in the halls of power of a nation." LMFAO

Or "Any politician promising not to raise your taxes is like a vampire promising to become a vegetarian."

LOL. Bo Levi is crapping his pants when it's PP vs Carney.

He still has fantasies about the story of how PP stalked his wife.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

This is the best post on the topic so far. I agree with you.

Smith should have stayed silent, and told the other provinces that her silence or even agreement to leave oil on the table is contingent on their commitment to eliminate or vastly reduce transfer payments, and commitments on how oil and gas would be regulated at the federal level, and commitments on how pipelines are regulated in the future.

She can always come out and say later that Alberta oil isn't on the table, but she had some time to really hammer the other provinces in negotiating a better position for Alberta in confederation. Maybe she tried it. Maybe she still will.

I can’t imagine a scenario where she would have put some sort of an offer out and not made that public if it had been rejected by the provinces. Not having made it public would be dropping the ball again.

I don’t think bringing up reducing transfer payments would have been helpful. The boost in transfer payments other provinces would see through a stronger Alberta economy is one of the best selling points. Especially at a time like this with so much uncertainty.

Big missed opportunity for Alberta.