My point is, that we are thinking people will be clamoring for Alberta oil the day this happens, which i think is untrue. There are options in place that could make Alberta blink (if our government didnt bend over already), as opposed to electricity which will be nearly impossible to absorb short-term.
We talk like Alberta is the lynchpin here. It maybe isnt
I don't think you are fully understanding the reliance that the US has on Alberta oil or you don't want to give credit to the argument that Alberta does have leverage in the tariff battle.
Quote:
Crude oil imports from Canada have become increasingly important to U.S. oil refineries, now making up most U.S. imports. U.S. oil refining capacity stood at 18.4 million barrels per day (b/d) as of January 1, 2024. In 2023, 60% of U.S. crude oil imports originated in Canada, up from 33% in 2013.
As crude oil production has increased in Canada, so have exports to the United States. Imports from Canada to the United States grew by an average of 4% in every year from 2013 to 2023. Canada’s crude oil exports to the United States amounted to 24% of U.S. refinery throughput in 2023, an increase from 17% in 2013.
Crude oil production averaged 4.6 million b/d in Canada during 2023, nearly three times the country’s 1.7 million-b/d refinery capacity. Many U.S. refineries are designed to handle heavy oils like those produced in Canada’s oil sands, yielding refined products such as transportation fuels (gasoline and diesel), chemicals, and plastics.
I don't think you are fully understanding the reliance that the US has on Alberta oil or you don't want to give credit to the argument that Alberta does have leverage in the tariff battle.
So if he doesn’t put a tariff on Canadian oil, but puts tariffs on other things, it sounds like there’s a pretty potent lever the Feds could pull to ensure tens of millions of Americans start lobbying to do something about it.
It’s like NAFTA negotiations all over again.
It's a potent lever in theory, but not in practice.
So far, this has been foreplay for a cute little tariff battle.
If we threaten US energy security, we are escalating it to a much more serious trade conflict. We didn't start the fight, but I don't think we are actually prepared to escalate it to that degree. The feds are not very smart, so we can't eliminate the possibility.
If they try to impose such a tax, there will be massive costs on the country in terms of federal cohesion. It will send Canada down a nasty, fragmented path. That will almost certainly get exacerbated because it would be easy to see how the feds would not treat every province's energy the same.
In other words the feds imposing an export tax on oil (or energy in general), would be a case of the medicine being far worse than the disease.
This is like if Canada was a band. There's 13 members of the band and Alberta is the lead singer. There's members playing keyboards and bongos and drums and guitars, but a most crucial piece is the singer. Now the whole band's trying to negotiate for a good deal with the record company that works for everyone, and instead of being a team player, the singer is going to the record company and saying "hey why don't you give the rest of these bums a 25% cut, I make an extra 10% and you keep the rest?"
Sure, maybe the singer has the leverage and even the right to do that. But the rest of the band is going to tell them to eat s***. Don't be throwing your hands up like it's no big deal. But they cap themselves at that rate, are forever on their knees to the big boss, and maybe they find out pretty fast that they're not so good without the rest of the band.
It's not just Alberta and Smith who are trying to screw everyone else. This is what Doug Ford had to say today about tariffs
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Amid calls by the federal NDP for Canada to cut off critical mineral exports stateside, Ford stressed the importance of Ontario mining to American manufacturing while appearing to distance himself from Smith’s more appeasing stance.
Smith told reporters that Canada must “work overtime” in the coming days to “make the case for carve-outs” if Trump goes ahead with his threatened tariffs on all Canadian products.
“We need to be prepared that tariffs are coming,” she said, downplaying the effectiveness of countermeasures, saying “you end up hurting yourself in trying to retaliate.”
Ford, who is chair of the premiers’ Council of the Federation, bristled at that.
“That’s Danielle Smith, she’s speaking for Alberta. She’s not speaking for the country. I’m speaking for Ontario that’s going to get hurt a lot more,” he said, referring to the fact Ontario is by far the biggest subnational trading partner with the U.S.
“You know, they (Trump’s team) aren’t going to go after the oil. They’re coming after Ontario. Let’s be very clear about this — and we’re going to make sure that we do everything we can to protect Ontarian jobs.”
The premier, who last week also called for better integration of Ontario’s energy systems to keep electricity and natural gas flowing stateside, stepped up his “Fortress Am-Can” pitch.
“The success of Fortress Am-Can depends on the critical minerals needed for new technologies, including advanced military technologies that will define geopolitical and economic security for the next century. Ontario and Canada have critical minerals in abundance and America needs them.”
To that end, Ford wants to launch a new “Am-Can Critical Mineral Security Alliance” bolstering the supply chain of resources and boosting the capacity for processing them.
Last Wednesday, Ford made a similar proposal regarding Ontario’s energy exports to the U.S., toning down his Dec. 11 suggestion Ontario was looking at “cutting off their energy” exports to Michigan, New York and Minnesota as retaliation for any American levies.
We cant really cut production, there isn't a bunch of tanks to pump 4M barrels per day into. For technical reasons we would only be able to shut in a percentage of the total, and because we're mostly landlocked we can't lease a bunch of tankers to hang out off the coast. Storing a bunch of days of production would also depress future prices until the overhang was cleared out.
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If they try to impose such a tax, there will be massive costs on the country in terms of federal cohesion. It will send Canada down a nasty, fragmented path. That will almost certainly get exacerbated because it would be easy to see how the feds would not treat every province's energy the same.
In other words the feds imposing an export tax on oil (or energy in general), would be a case of the medicine being far worse than the disease.
What is your concern with the cost in federal cohesion? What even is that?
Alberta gets angry, Quebec gets appeased, how would the day after export tariffs look different for federal cohesion than before?
But more importantly, why should we care? You spend every other post whining about the fragmented nature of confederation, now claim it’s too precious to put under strain. Which is it?
"Maybe what they do need is to have a committee of caucus or the Treasury Board president – somebody who is an elected official who has the ability to tell her 'no you can't do that, you have to follow the policy,' because it appears that what we're seeing is that nobody is willing to tell this premier no."
This is a pretty big middle finger from Ford to the rest of the country because he doesn't want Ontario's industries and economy to be impacted.
He’s a criminal who loves the fact Trump is there. He gets to do sound bites like this, trying to act as “us vs. Trump” for populism, while doing his own land grab.
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The problem with oil as a chip is that the USA has yo-yoed from bring a net importer to net exporter over the last few years. They have the capacity and ability to turn on the taps to meet increased demand. They also have the ability to buy from dozens of clients with access to ports. Coupled with 350 million barrels of oil in the Reserve, they have a pretty good chance of making up the production prior to having the taps turned off.
Alberta, frankly just doesnt have the bargaining cache we think it does.
I still think Ontario and Quebec have the best chips in electricity generation - but those are all blue states, so who knows
I am not so sure. I did work in O&G for 10 years in Pipeline and Producer companies. I picked up some knowlege, mainly that infrastructure like pipe has been setup to be integrated for a reason. Its not easy to replace a pipe with a tanker given the steady predictable flow a pipe gives you. Second the gulf has refineries that are geared for heavy oil. Again, you can't retool a refinery on the fly.
All I am saying is I maybe out of date or wrong, but my understanding is this isn't painless for the US the way other goods maybe are.
One thing that doesn't get mentioned in this ridiculous trade imbalance discussion is that the US takes our oil, upgrades it, and exports the products. That means they get trade export increases to other countries from our product, which they can't do without. But I know, that's waaay to complicated for a President Cheetos to comprehend.
Describing himself as probably “the most pro-American prime minister in the history of our country,” Harper pushed back on a series of Trump’s recent claims about Canada. He questioned Trump’s insistence that the U.S. is subsidizing Canada...
Quote:
...“It’s actually Canada that subsidizes the United States in this regard,” Harper said. “Maybe Canadians, if Mr. Trump feels this way, should be looking at selling their oil and gas to other people.”
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...“I have a real problem with some of the things Donald Trump is saying,” he added. “It doesn’t sound to me like the pronouncements of somebody who’s a friend, a partner, and an ally — which is what I’ve always thought the United States is for our country.”
Well ya, reality agrees. Which just proves how incompetent that buffoon is. Maybe we should start treating him with the same respect he treats us with? When he comes to the G7 "Sorry hoser, no convicted felons allowed."
Sorry to go off topic but in American political news Pete Hegseth's confirmation hearing for Defence Secretary is going on now. In a surprising turn of events he's been combative when questioned on anything, specifically his feelings on the role of women in combat.
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