American Politics 4.0 - Orangeyou Glad He’s Back?

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by Geraldsh

This is why I don’t understand politicians threatening to cut off supply. It should be business as usual for Canadian exporters and a painful jump in costs for the American buyers - they are the ones who should be lobbying Trump.

When it comes to oil...I don't think they will need to. And if he does put a tariff on Alberta oil, he will get lobbied right quick by tens of millions of Americans who wake up one day to very expensive gasoline. I've heard people love higher gas prices due to gov't taxes - ask Trudeau.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

I've heard people love higher gas prices due to gov't taxes - ask Trudeau.

[Cappy]

The problem with oil as a chip is that the USA has yo-yoed from bring a net importer to net exporter over the last few years. They have the capacity and ability to turn on the taps to meet increased demand. They also have the ability to buy from dozens of clients with access to ports. Coupled with 350 million barrels of oil in the Reserve, they have a pretty good chance of making up the production prior to having the taps turned off.

Alberta, frankly just doesnt have the bargaining cache we think it does.

I still think Ontario and Quebec have the best chips in electricity generation - but those are all blue states, so who knows

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Yes, for a short period. But the painful rise in costs will prompt US customers to find US suppliers and abandon Canadian suppliers which will lead to layoffs and potential closures.

Yep. And then the US suppliers increase their prices because why not? As long as they’re less than the tariffed goods, and…. the US consumers are screwed.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Cappy

The problem with oil as a chip is that the USA has yo-yoed from bring a net importer to net exporter over the last few years. They have the capacity and ability to turn on the taps to meet increased demand. They also have the ability to buy from dozens of clients with access to ports. Coupled with 350 million barrels of oil in the Reserve, they have a pretty good chance of making up the production prior to having the taps turned off.

Alberta, frankly just doesnt have the bargaining cache we think it does.

I still think Ontario and Quebec have the best chips in electricity generation - but those are all blue states, so who knows

Biden sold down the medium/heavy oil in the strategic reserve, the US refining complex needs heavy oil from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela. Both Mexico and Venezuela have experienced consistent declining heavy production for the last decade plus. There isn't a quick replacement for the required grades to match the refining slate.

[RogerWilco]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Either the importer or exporter have to clear the shipment at customs via a customs brokerage (like one of these https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services...cb-cd-eng.html). Whoever is clearing the shipment handles all the associated duties, taxes or fees.

For customers where we handle the shipment for them, yes we get billed the tariff. We will pass that along via invoice.

For customers who handle the shipments on their own, they would get billed the tariff direct.

This is simplified, as there are various INCO terms agreed to between parties.


Goods will become more expensive for the US consumer; and Canadian firms will likely lose business to US competitors. When Canada implements retaliatory tariffs, the Canadian consumer will be affected.

Everyone with half a brain agrees tariffs are ####ing dumb. Yet, here we are.

Cutting off supply has to come along with advertising that make it clear that all of this is happening as a result of the GOP Tarrifs. That is how they will attempt to put political pressure on Trump from within. Sure, if there are Tarrifs on Alberta oil, gas prices in the US will rise, but if supply is reduced or cut off that price rise will probably be exponential. This is why Smith doing what she has done has probably make Canada’s position weaker. The strategy would work best if the Country as a whole is acting as a team.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Wormius

Yep. And then the US suppliers increase their prices because why not? As long as they’re less than the tariffed goods, and…. the US consumers are screwed.

That is precisely how the tariffs work.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

That is precisely how the tariffs work.

Except it long term pain for the US consumer, because once they switch to a US supplier, they’ll jack up their prices, and they’re probably not coming back down very fast once tariffs are gone.

[Monahammer]

Smith is speed running even my wildest nightmares. Plebiscite on statehood within 2 months at this rate lol.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Geraldsh

This is why I don’t understand politicians threatening to cut off supply. It should be business as usual for Canadian exporters and a painful jump in costs for the American buyers - they are the ones who should be lobbying Trump.

Yup. In theory, if the tariff still makes it cheaper to buy from Canada and the US still buys as much from us, then technically, we're good. It's the American businesses and customers that eat that tax.

But in reality, these tariffs are meant to make Canadian goods MORE expensive than US made products, and force Americans to buy home grown. Which again, ultimately hurts everyone. Hurts Canadians cuz we can't sell the goods, and hurts Americans because they now have to pay 25% more for their stuff.

But hey, more money for the military right? Because America! Eff yah!

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Cappy

The problem with oil as a chip is that the USA has yo-yoed from bring a net importer to net exporter over the last few years. They have the capacity and ability to turn on the taps to meet increased demand. They also have the ability to buy from dozens of clients with access to ports. Coupled with 350 million barrels of oil in the Reserve, they have a pretty good chance of making up the production prior to having the taps turned off.

Alberta, frankly just doesnt have the bargaining cache we think it does.

I still think Ontario and Quebec have the best chips in electricity generation - but those are all blue states, so who knows

This is why the US will still be reliant on oil imports despite their position as a net exporter or net importer. They will rely on stable trading partners such as Alberta and as a result Alberta does maintain some bargaining cache.

https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-...and-export-oil

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by RogerWilco

Country as a whole is acting as a team.

When it comes to the country acting "like a team", it rings hollow when the other provinces are only prepared to do so when it suits them.

Canada has not ever acted as a team on basically anything. Expecting Alberta to start now, despite the historical Canadian attitude towards the province, is comically transparent, tone deaf, and blatantly self interested

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

When it comes to the country acting "like a team", it rings hollow when the other provinces are only prepared to do so when it suits them.

Canada has not ever acted as a team on basically anything. Expecting Alberta to start now, despite the historical Canadian attitude towards the province, is comically transparent, tone deaf, and blatantly self interested

Ah right, the "it's everyone else's fault" accusation some Albertans love to use. Even though Alberta has traditionally acted as the petulant child in confederation, it's everyone else's fault that happened, and we shouldn't even try to work as a united front. Cool cool cool cool cool cool.

[The Yen Man]

I mean, he's not wrong. It's a bit of a hard pill to swallow for some Albertans that the official opposition party next time around could very well be a separatist party from Quebec. Yes, we're very united.

[RogerWilco]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

When it comes to the country acting "like a team", it rings hollow when the other provinces are only prepared to do so when it suits them.

Canada has not ever acted as a team on basically anything. Expecting Alberta to start now, despite the historical Canadian attitude towards the province, is comically transparent, tone deaf, and blatantly self interested

Most people in this message board are Albertans living in Alberta I would assume. Get over your victim mentality. We do exceptionally well here, but not everything gets to go our way. This isn’t the wild west.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

This is why the US will still be reliant on oil imports despite their position as a net exporter or net importer. They will rely on stable trading partners such as Alberta and as a result Alberta does maintain some bargaining cache.

https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-...and-export-oil

My point is, that we are thinking people will be clamoring for Alberta oil the day this happens, which i think is untrue. There are options in place that could make Alberta blink (if our government didnt bend over already), as opposed to electricity which will be nearly impossible to absorb short-term.

We talk like Alberta is the lynchpin here. It maybe isnt

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by Cappy

My point is, that we are thinking people will be clamoring for Alberta oil the day this happens, which i think is untrue. There are options in place that could make Alberta blink (if our government didnt bend over already), as opposed to electricity which will be nearly impossible to absorb short-term.

We talk like Alberta is the lynchpin here. It maybe isnt

Notably Alberta isn't talking like that. Alberta is just doing it's thing and everyone is pearl clutching about Smith visiting Trump. (TDS is alive and well, and is so 2020).

[OldSam]

Forget about all this stuff. The most important things today are the comments from that pillar of intelligence, MTG complaining about the evil Democrats turning up the winds in California. The other items are the many, many balls being held for inauguration, including the most important Coronation Ball. You can't make this up.

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Ah right, the "it's everyone else's fault" accusation some Albertans love to use. Even though Alberta has traditionally acted as the petulant child in confederation, it's everyone else's fault that happened, and we shouldn't even try to work as a united front. Cool cool cool cool cool cool.

Quebec acts like the petulent child much more so than Alberta.

Ontario doesn't bother as they have the tyranny of the majority.

BC acts like a hypocritical petulent child by combining environmental restrictions with massive coal exports.

In short: everyone just looks out for themselves. Which is fine. Just seems silly to complain about Alberta when. Alberta does it.

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

When it comes to oil...I don't think they will need to. And if he does put a tariff on Alberta oil, he will get lobbied right quick by tens of millions of Americans who wake up one day to very expensive gasoline. I've heard people love higher gas prices due to gov't taxes - ask Trudeau.

So if he doesn’t put a tariff on Canadian oil, but puts tariffs on other things, it sounds like there’s a pretty potent lever the Feds could pull to ensure tens of millions of Americans start lobbying to do something about it.

It’s like NAFTA negotiations all over again.