[PGT] Calgary 3 Anaheim 2 (OT)

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

May as well push for playoffs now. Halfway done the season.

If zarys out long term, the push isn’t gonna go too well

[JayP]

The "Vladar is getting tough starts" argument really falls apart when you actually look at his numbers closer.

He drew a lot of tough tasks early (and did admirably) but in his last 12 starts he's played a pretty typical group of teams (UTA/VGK/OTT/TBL/NSH/STL/CBJ/PIT/DET/MIN/VAN/BUF). A couple great teams (VGK/MIN), a couple bottom feeders (NSH/BUF), and a whole lot of mushy middle teams. His numbers - 3.33GAA & .889 save%. Basically right on course for what his season numbers look like and his career numbers too.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

If zarys out long term, the push isn’t gonna go too well

Guess it’s Kuzmenko’s last opportunity or a chance to audition young guys.

[Strange Brew]

I was convinced that David Rittich was a replacement level goalie and the guy has made a career in the NHL playing for different teams.

Vladar maybe is in the same vein. He can be an NHL backup the kind you sign in the offseason on a short term deal. Nothing wrong with that, just don't know if he really gets you anything meaningful at the deadline.

I really like how they are developing Wolf thus far, feels like a long term plan vs. win now. I'm in no hurry to see big changes to the approach.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Wolf is and will be the better goaltender.

But he's getting the protected starts.

Vladar's stats are similar, but his deployment isn't which suggests he's actually much better this season than in the past.

He hasn't had to play mostly on the road, against the league's best, and all the back to backs possible.

Markstrom got the tougher starts for two years.

You don't know the bolded.

It would take a bit of work, but we (or someone) should look at the games and the possession stats of the team during Vladar's starts vs. Wolf's. We are assuming situationally Wolf is getting better starts, which on the surface I don't disagree with. But is the team actually giving up more shots/attempts with Vladar in net, or is he just giving up more.

Their GSAA and xGA for Wolf and Vladar are dramatically different. Although do not account situationally of course.

At 5v5 the numbers skew even further. With Wolf seeing higher xGA but saving dramatically more goals against than Vladar (over 4x more goals saved at evens on nearly the same amount of chances).

It might be easy to say that Wolf is getting the easier starts or that the team is more tired or up against stiffer comp when Vladar is in net, but until that is broken down, I don't think it is as much of a factor as some make it out to be.

Statistically, if Wolf had played those same games as Vladar, the Flames should have almost 2 more wins than they have now. Doesn't seem like a lot, but it would mean they would potentially be solidly in the Wild Card and pushing for a full playoff spot and not on the outside.

I would dig into it if I had time, but I will leave that for smarter people than i.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

But we have been told that Vladar is just as good as Wolf.

At least from a few people.

I was a Vladar supporter for a few years, but it is clear he is worse than replacement level at this point. Time to move on from the big guy.

Ditch to ditch huh?

Some people think he's good so I'm going to walk out replacement level.

With the harder deployment he's a -2.9 gsaa goaltender, which is good for 43th out of 64 goaltenders (2 per team).

I'd put replacement level in that 62-66 range.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

If zarys out long term, the push isn’t gonna go too well

Yeah they just lost the engine to their 2nd or 3rd line.

They lost one of the two or three players that can beat someone one on one and set up an odd man chance.

They lost a key member of PP2

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Ditch to ditch huh?

Some people think he's good so I'm going to walk out replacement level.

With the harder deployment he's a -2.9 gsaa goaltender, which is good for 43th out of 64 goaltenders (2 per team).

I'd put replacement level in that 62-66 range.

Pretty subjective. I just took a look, at 5v5, he is actually 21st in WAR for goalies (flawed stat, I know).

I was surprised by this. Makes me rethink my initial thoughts. Definitely more digging needed.

I was only comparing the two, but when you go league wide, Vladar is better than I was thinking and consistently falls in most stats amongst the top 30 goalies in the league at even strength.

[flambers]

With Zary hurt (my guess he is gone long term),

This hits the one position where the Flames have zero depth,

Which is center.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Pretty subjective. I just took a look, at 5v5, he is actually 21st in WAR for goalies (flawed stat, I know).

I was surprised by this. Makes me rethink my initial thoughts. Definitely more digging needed.

I was only comparing the two, but when you go league wide, Vladar is better than I was thinking and consistently falls in most stats amongst the top 30 goalies in the league at even strength.

The main thing about Vladar that would attract GMs looking for backup help is that he's experienced. There are guys around with better numbers but as the above shows, numbers are arguable. With Vladar, a team gets a guy who has played all the teams in the NHL, not some prospect who another team can't fit in.

[You Need a Thneed]

Goals saved above expected:

Dustin Wolf is 11th in the NHL at 10.53

Vladar is 67th in the NHL at -4.74

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah they just lost the engine to their 2nd or 3rd line.

They lost one of the two or three players that can beat someone one on one and set up an odd man chance.

They lost a key member of PP2

Has there been an update? Some injuries look terrible, but are minor. Some look minor, but end up long term.

Ovechkin broke his leg on a seemingly minor collision.

[mile]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1877028188464779580

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Goals saved above expected:

Dustin Wolf is 11th in the NHL at 10.53

Vladar is 67th in the NHL at -4.74

Look. Firstly we have discussed many times that xGA has its usefulness and has its limitations

It’d be best for you to understand the numbers you are using

Anyhow, it ends up being a mild deviation from raw save percentage, and does not take in to account opposing team skill and defensive posture, shot placement, those things that matter in real life

-4.74?

The 5-0 Vegas drubbing and 8-3 Lightning win account for that
5 GA vs 2.84 xGA and 8 vs 5.05 xGA

Over -5 xGA contribution from those 2 games

When have the Flames laid an egg like that for Wolf?


Bingo has laid out the opposition stats and back to back situation

Wolf is good. We agree. The Flames are more than likely moving on from Vladar, Cooley is on a 1 way next year


But this notion that the Flames would be a playoff team if Wolf played the Vladar games? Laughable

What is Wolf going to do to win the 5-0 and 8-3 drubbing? Or even the 3-0 loss to Vegas where Vladar was great? Give your head a shake. Whatever goalie plays those games is 0-3

Even when Wolf lets in 4 against Chicago the Flames score 6

Sucks to be Vladar now.

It’d suck even harder to think that he and Wolf should have the same expected results from very different situations

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

I didn’t see a Marchmemt leg hanging It may not go down well on a flames board but I don’t think that was dirty. Ugly outcome. I didn’t see ugly intent.

[Matty81]

I don't think he intended to knee him but no suspension is a joke. you're responsible for being in control of your body and not injuring others out there, it's not an excuse to destroy someone with a head shot and argue that they moved, or hit someone from behind and argue that they turned. Your job not to hit another player who is in a vulnerable position these days. It was a charge and reckless.

But because it's Zary and the Flames no uproar at all... imagine if it was McDavid.

Genuinely worried for Zary's career with how bad that looked.

The worst part is the Flames don't even have a fighter these days and are as soft as baby #### because that AHL plug deserves to get filled in

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

It was absolutely a reckless play and deserves additional games. I don't think intent is necessary.

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by Matty81

I don't think he intended to knee him but no suspension is a joke. you're responsible for being in control of your body and not injuring others out there, it's not an excuse to destroy someone with a head shot and argue that they moved, or hit someone from behind and argue that they turned. Your job not to hit another player who is in a vulnerable position these days. It was a charge and reckless.

But because it's Zary and the Flames no uproar at all... imagine if it was McDavid.

Genuinely worried for Zary's career with how bad that looked.

The worst part is the Flames don't even have a fighter these days and are as soft as baby #### because that AHL plug deserves to get filled in

Yeah it's the bolded part for me. Getting soft in my older age but man I could just feel the devastation. I realize that's a risk in the sport but very hard to watch.

[the-rasta-masta]

I really didn't see a problem with the hit, when you commit to hit a player and they try to move around you, I'm not sure what you are supposed to do and Helleson didn't stick his knee out. I thought the 5 minute major was appropriate based on the injury result and am fine with nothing further.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Sorry it’s not clear, are you saying you’ve been that guy?

Don't be that guy.