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Old 01-07-2025, 03:10 PM   #6101
Rhett44
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It would be a lot easier to accept this middle of the pack thing if we already had a Bedard or a Cellebrini.

Unfortunately, we do not. And those teams are likely going to get a chance at another elite player.

And Unfortunately besides Wolf, Zary, and Coronato... most of the players who are helping us push towards the mushy middle won't be here in a few years anyways, or will be declining with age.
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Old 01-07-2025, 03:19 PM   #6102
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I would look at the bottom 10 standings from last year.

San Jose - Chicago - Anaheim - Columbus - Montreal - Arizona - Ottawa - Seattle - Calgary - New Jersey.


If you look at their rosters to start last year, and then look at their rosters to start this year, which of these would you say have gotten worse. I can only point at one for sure, and that's Calgary. Seattle is sort of 'meh', but I don't think they got worse. With the horrible Gaudreau tragedy, one can point at Columbus. All of those teams have injected a lot of youth (or are in the middle of it), and are expected to get better naturally. Some will flounder, that's for sure, but if you are going to just look at rosters year-to-year, I can only point at the Flames for actively getting worse. Now look at Calgary's cap space available.


If this doesn't tell you that Calgary is in a rebuild, then nothing will.


I trust Conroy here. Halfway through the 2013-14 season, the Flames started overachieving. The underlying metrics stated that it was unsustainable, but they sustained it right through to the end of the playoffs in the 2015 season. They worked their butts off every single night, and they had league-average goaltending. At some point, that kind of effort makes an 82 game season exceptionally grueling, so long-term it isn't sustainable. I look at that team, and I see a team with a lot more firepower than this one. That team pretty much fooled Treliving into believing that they were further ahead in their rebuild than they actually were, and he started making a series of moves to enhance the team.


I don't think Conroy is going to do this. I think he is going to let this team bottom-out. Build through the draft. Then rise up again on the backs of the youth.


At the start of the season, he trotted out the word retool often. During one media availability, someone directly asked what he means by that - they asked for definitions. The definitions that he provided were spot on with rebuild = scorched earth, and retool = rebuild. When you hear retool, what does that mean to you? To me, it means a major move where you replace a core piece or two, and then get back to competing, right? A rebuild is something that takes a a few seasons. A scorched-earth rebuild is when you gut your team completely. On top of this, he has stated in a couple of media interviews that "We just need to be patient. This will take a few seasons."


Maloney stating 'playoffs!" is the exact same as Feaster stating that the mandate is "playoffs" right after trading Iginla and Bouwmeester away. He then had to put on another availability due to the media/fan backlash assuming that Edwards wasn't going for a rebuild after all. I didn't like Feaster much, but one of the things he got right was his feel of that team before the rebuild, calling it a 'sickness' where they were consistently below expectations. That's what Conroy and Maloney mean by playoffs - winning should always be the goal. It is management's job to create the roster, it is up to the coach and players to play hard. A GM's mandate HAS to be 'playoffs!" to the the coach and players.


I am not so worried about this team avoiding a rebuild somehow. They are in one. They are just - like the 2013-15 Flames - exceeding expectations, and this is providing a very good environment to develop guys like Zary, Pospisil, Wolf, Bahl, Coronato and Pelletier now. You want to create that culture and keep it in place. That's part of rebuilding - you are rebuilding the culture as well as the personnel.


At some point, they will simply bottom out. As of now, they sit just outside the wildcard spot. However, they also sit 4 points out of a top 10 pick. Even more interestingly, they sit 6 points out of a top 5 pick. That's the parity this year.


However, if they keep winning, that's ok. The most important thing to me is that Conroy doesn't get fooled by their results, and instead keeps going ahead with whatever plan he laid out. Conroy had a front row seat to that 2013-15 over-achievement, and he had a front row seat to all the moves and signings that were made that worked and didn't work, and what the overall result was, and probably has a few ideas of his own as to why that team never had any real playoff success.


I think the Flames are on the right track here. It wouldn't surprise me if, on paper, next season's Flames were even a little worse on paper again. I guess we will see. To me, my own personal confirmation bias tells me that they are in the early stages of a rebuild - this is the 2013-14 season, only instead of their #1 pick playing in the NHL this year, he is playing in the OHL. That's where I think this team is in their arc, anyway.


I really love that statement, that the Flames are rebuilding the culture as much as they are the team. Building a team that hates to lose and wants to win means that the players can never accept losing as the best course of action.
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Old 01-07-2025, 03:19 PM   #6103
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Unfortunately besides Wolf, Zary, and Coronato... most of the players who are helping us push towards the mushy middle won't be here in a few years anyways, or will be declining with age.
This is going to be a serious problem for the Flames, since they don't have the first-place team in the AHL to promote prospects from.
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Old 01-07-2025, 03:19 PM   #6104
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Next year will be much worse. Backlund, Andersson, Coleman I fully expect to be gone as early as this trade deadline.
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Old 01-07-2025, 03:26 PM   #6105
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Next year will be much worse. Backlund, Andersson, Coleman I fully expect to be gone as early as this trade deadline.
Being bad in the McKenna draft wouldn't be the worse thing either.
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Old 01-07-2025, 03:40 PM   #6106
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Being bad in the McKenna draft wouldn't be the worse thing either.
I think indeed it is more critical to be bad in the 2026 and 2027 drafts where the top end looks a bit better (as best as anyone call tell at this stage)
I do like the centre depth in this draft in the top 10, so there is some regret if the Flames miss that opportunity. But it is what it is.
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Old 01-07-2025, 03:43 PM   #6107
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Next year will be much worse. Backlund, Andersson, Coleman I fully expect to be gone as early as this trade deadline.
Wishful thinking.

I would consider Andersson as ‘less likely’ to be lived by the deadline and I definitely don’t think we will see either Backund or Coleman moved this year.

Not saying that’s what I would do but that’s what I think we will see.
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Old 01-07-2025, 03:44 PM   #6108
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Yeah chances are, barring any huge trades or UFAs brought in, we're probably going to bottom out sometime over the next couple years.


The vet group won't keep us afloat for much longer and I'm not sure we have a group of young guys that can take over.


Look how hard it's been for Detroit or the Blues to re-position.
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Old 01-07-2025, 03:47 PM   #6109
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Wishful thinking.

I would consider Andersson as ‘less likely’ to be lived by the deadline and I definitely don’t think we will see either Backund or Coleman moved this year.

Not saying that’s what I would do but that’s what I think we will see.
Even if they hang around, Backs and Goalman are getting older. I also think they should be moved, esp. Backs to a cup contender because heck that guy deserves it.
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Old 01-07-2025, 03:57 PM   #6110
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I think indeed it is more critical to be bad in the 2026 and 2027 drafts where the top end looks a bit better (as best as anyone call tell at this stage)
I do like the centre depth in this draft in the top 10, so there is some regret if the Flames miss that opportunity. But it is what it is.
I think that is kind of the best case for the fans if they can get a one of the centers in this draft and send them back so you kind of get that double dip of top end players to join the stable of prospects for 2027.
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Old 01-07-2025, 04:24 PM   #6111
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Even if they hang around, Backs and Goalman are getting older. I also think they should be moved, esp. Backs to a cup contender because heck that guy deserves it.
I don't think Backlund has any intention of moving. He signed a pretty nice deal for that very reason. Maybe for a few months at the deadline in his last year, only to resign with Calgary? Maybe, but not this year.
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Old 01-07-2025, 04:26 PM   #6112
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I think indeed it is more critical to be bad in the 2026 and 2027 drafts where the top end looks a bit better (as best as anyone call tell at this stage)
I do like the centre depth in this draft in the top 10, so there is some regret if the Flames miss that opportunity. But it is what it is.
I think that is correct. But is does show that Calgary will be no where close to being a playoff contender when they move into the new rink. They'll be in the middle of likely their worse years.

Prospects take many years to develop, even quite good ones.
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Old 01-07-2025, 04:27 PM   #6113
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I expect Backlund and Andersson stick around. Andersson ends up being the new captain once Backlund retires.
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Old 01-07-2025, 04:51 PM   #6114
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I think that is correct. But is does show that Calgary will be no where close to being a playoff contender when they move into the new rink. They'll be in the middle of likely their worse years.

Prospects take many years to develop, even quite good ones.
I don't think there is any need for the Flames to actually be competitive by 2027 (and they won't be).

The only thing required, in order to generate the kind of excitement levels that the organization will want, is that the team is on the rise and that there young players, and an emerging team, to get excited about.

That alone would be enough to drive interest for the first 3 years of the building. And hopefully by then, the team is fully into its competitive phase.
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Old 01-07-2025, 05:27 PM   #6115
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Even if they hang around, Backs and Goalman are getting older. I also think they should be moved, esp. Backs to a cup contender because heck that guy deserves it.
No argument for me.

I wouldn’t be surprised if either of those two guys are moved, but, I suspect if they are, it will be in the offseason or near next years TDL.

Backlund is pretty entrenched in Calgary. Could see him chasing a cup but I think it’s a carefully curated move. Plus I don’t think the Flames are on a hurry to trade their captain at this point.
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Old 01-07-2025, 05:58 PM   #6116
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There is a reason why Backlund NMC alters January 1st 2026, his final year. The Flames aren't in the hunt he he fully wants to be moved to a playoff team.
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Old 01-07-2025, 06:29 PM   #6117
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The team that looks to be on the best track right now is actually San Jose.

They kept pieces like Hertl, Meier, Karlsson, Couture, Vlasic, etc out of the gate at the start of their rebuild, and then moved the pieces when their value was higher as opposed to just selling low, and it seems to have worked for them.
.
I don’t think that was all part of some master plan. SJ brought in Karlsson for a last hurrah, and then they fell off a cliff (they finished 29th in the league in 2019-20). They didn’t move Meier until four years later, when he was still only 25. Couture and Vlasic were unmovable because of contracts, NMCs, and injuries.

The Sharks backed into a rebuild only once they were already terrible for a couple seasons, and then went full tank.
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Old 01-07-2025, 06:42 PM   #6118
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I think that is kind of the best case for the fans if they can get a one of the centers in this draft and send them back so you kind of get that double dip of top end players to join the stable of prospects for 2027.
It takes a crazy amount of luck for it to happen but imagine the flames getting Misa in this draft and then McKenna next year. Both making the team in 2026-2027. Zary, Coronato, Misa and McKenna as the forward core. Add Tij Iginla through trade a couple years later when the flames for once end up on the winning side of the “I only want to sign with one specific team”.
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Old 01-07-2025, 07:40 PM   #6119
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I do think we are underestimating how hard it will be to bottom out with high end goaltending. Wolf is only going to get better from here.

We have this season and maybe next before Wolf could be playing 60+ games a season and posting a SV% in the 920s or better per season.

Load up now at draft, and with prospects/young NHLers in Wolf's age range while you can. An argument to sell vets now if they want out.

I also feel our development program is above average. It has been refreshing to see the growth in Coronato and Zary in the past year. Both are clearly projecting as top 6 forwards from what I have seen. Optimistic we have a couple more top 6 forwards drafted given all the point per game players in the system.

D prospect cupboard looks quite full to me.

But do share everyone's concern that we need enough of a bottoming to land a future franchise 1C and probably another elite winger.
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Old 01-07-2025, 07:44 PM   #6120
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We have no young forwards coming up who can score. Our defence will get worse. Wolf can only do so much.

We will score less and likely give up more as younger players come into the lineup and the old guys start natural regression.
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