Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Jesus Christ, it's a discussion. There is no data. Who cares?

As for the cap space argument, 50% retention would mean he would cost $1M for the remainder of the season. Take out a minimum contract, and all they need room for is about half a million. Every team except TOR has that.

Wrong. You're double-counting. Every team except Toronto has prorated cap space of half a million or more. You don't get to prorate cap space and the player's salary. The prorated cap space shows how much you could take on in terms of a player's full season salary for the remainder of the season.

Any team would require $2,275,000 in prorated cap space to add Andersson's contract at 50% retained without subtracting a roster player. That number doesn't change, but the longer a team remains under the cap, the more space it accrues (LTIR notwithstanding).

Also, it isn't like salary can't come back in a deal. There isn't a team in the league that couldn't pull off an Andersson deal, easily.

Only if they are willing to subtract from their current roster to do so. Contenders want to add, not subtract.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Now the thing that might get them into the bottom 10 is if their poor road play continues. They are 13-6-3 at home (.659 point percentage at home), compared to 5-8-4 on the road (.412 on the road) and have 24 road games remaining vs 19 home games.

The other thing would be if they were to make a trade to move some of the veteran assets...

It's interesting how on page 15 of the thread I pointed out that our home point percentage was 72.5% and after 2 loses it drops to 65.9%.

That right there dropped the Flames to 15th overall with only 7 more spots to drop to get into the top 10 of the draft. The only team in the 10 spots below us with a losing record right now is the Flyers.

Lightning - 1 point behind with 2 games in hand
Blues - 1 point behind but 2 less games to go, however they have a huge opportunity next week with a rare back-to-back homestand against the Flames
UTC - 2 points behind, even on games
Penguins - 2 points behind but 2 less games to go
Senators - 3 points behind, one game in hand and a 6-4-0 record in their last 10
Blue Jackets - 3 points behind, but 1 less game to go
Canadiens - 4 points behind, even on games, riding a 7-3-0 record in last 10

The Red Wings and Ducks are also both 6-4 in L10 and are only 5 points back.
The Rangers are still playing horribly this year but are still only 6 points back and you know they want to be back in the playoffs.

All of that information just goes to show that there are a number of teams looking to jump over the Flames and it won't take a significant losing skid to get 7 out of 10 of those teams to pass us in the standings.

Trading any of Andersson, Coleman, or Kadri would probably send the team into a freefall down the standings... but I do not think that is necessary at this time. Wait to see how the road trips pan out and if we continue to drop games at home then we'll likely be in the top 10 of the draft already.

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Wolven

It's interesting how on page 15 of the thread I pointed out that our home point percentage was 72.5% and after 2 loses it drops to 65.9%.

That right there dropped the Flames to 15th overall with only 7 more spots to drop to get into the top 10 of the draft. The only team in the 10 spots below us with a losing record right now is the Flyers.

Lightning - 1 point behind with 2 games in hand
Blues - 1 point behind but 2 less games to go, however they have a huge opportunity next week with a rare back-to-back homestand against the Flames
UTC - 2 points behind, even on games
Penguins - 2 points behind but 2 less games to go
Senators - 3 points behind, one game in hand and a 6-4-0 record in their last 10
Blue Jackets - 3 points behind, but 1 less game to go
Canadiens - 4 points behind, even on games, riding a 7-3-0 record in last 10

The Red Wings and Ducks are also both 6-4 in L10 and are only 5 points back.
The Rangers are still playing horribly this year but are still only 6 points back and you know they want to be back in the playoffs.

All of that information just goes to show that there are a number of teams looking to jump over the Flames and it won't take a significant losing skid to get 7 out of 10 of those teams to pass us in the standings.

Trading any of Andersson, Coleman, or Kadri would probably send the team into a freefall down the standings... but I do not think that is necessary at this time. Wait to see how the road trips pan out and if we continue to drop games at home then we'll likely be in the top 10 of the draft already.

I don't think we are going to keep dropping. It is going to be the usual, win one then lose one which is the Flames way.

Looking at the schedule coming up, it looks fairly easy as well.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

The end result is still the end result, and that's what the "most Flames thing ever" would be.

What was posted the other day? Since the early 2000s the Flames are the 17th best team or something along those lines? That's about where they project to be this year if things contiune at the current clip. Which really just means they've become more salary efficient while accomplishing the same thing - which just shows how easy it is to be 'mid' in this league.

Two division titles and a top ten draft pick in the last 6 years ...

Averaging middle, and being middle every year are not the same thing.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

Not making the playoffs but also not getting a top pick is terrible for us. Our goal is to win a cup, and we need some elite talent to do that.

The players are working hard, but most of the current roster are not in the Flames long term plans. It's great individually that Kadri, Huberdeau etc are playing well, but it isn't great for the Flames future.

I will say Wolf has been a nice surprise.

But ideally we would be tanking for a few years and getting some elite talent to help us down the road. Finishing right near the middle year after year just ensures we will never be a contender.

Lamenting the timing of a team over achieving is fine.

But this team was set up to fail.

The "organization" didn't aim for the mushy middle with $20M in free cap space, 6 UFAs dealt and their number goaltender moved on without a veteran replacement.

Your blaming unexpected results on a plan that doesn't fit.

[Vinny01]

If the Flames falter and drop into a top 10 pick this season I would say it would have to be considered a pretty good success. It was important they got off to the horrendous start last year as it stopped Conroy from caving to any of the contract demands he had from Lindholm. The only thing is they likely would have got the Hanifin extension done as it was extremely close last year but the losses gave him pause. But that horrible start allowed the team to chart a new path.

This year if they wind up with the 9th pick it is because they fell off in the second half. They gave us glimpses of hope throughout the year and seeing Wolf, Coronato, and Zary all make an impact is great. Our season wasn’t over in November this year like it was in 23-24 and this team has been far more competitive than most thought.

In all honesty for the rest of the year I hope this team continues to drop in the standings to secure their own pick in the draft and Andersson lights up the 4 nations and gets Conroy an absolute haul at the deadline.

I do think this team can be an up and coming playoff team by the time Scotia Place opens but we need a couple more high picks to hope that team can become a contender in 5-7 years

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Wolven

It's interesting how on page 15 of the thread I pointed out that our home point percentage was 72.5% and after 2 loses it drops to 65.9%.

That right there dropped the Flames to 15th overall with only 7 more spots to drop to get into the top 10 of the draft. The only team in the 10 spots below us with a losing record right now is the Flyers.

Lightning - 1 point behind with 2 games in hand
Blues - 1 point behind but 2 less games to go, however they have a huge opportunity next week with a rare back-to-back homestand against the Flames
UTC - 2 points behind, even on games
Penguins - 2 points behind but 2 less games to go
Senators - 3 points behind, one game in hand and a 6-4-0 record in their last 10
Blue Jackets - 3 points behind, but 1 less game to go
Canadiens - 4 points behind, even on games, riding a 7-3-0 record in last 10

The Red Wings and Ducks are also both 6-4 in L10 and are only 5 points back.
The Rangers are still playing horribly this year but are still only 6 points back and you know they want to be back in the playoffs.

All of that information just goes to show that there are a number of teams looking to jump over the Flames and it won't take a significant losing skid to get 7 out of 10 of those teams to pass us in the standings.

Trading any of Andersson, Coleman, or Kadri would probably send the team into a freefall down the standings... but I do not think that is necessary at this time. Wait to see how the road trips pan out and if we continue to drop games at home then we'll likely be in the top 10 of the draft already.

Yup, there are only 10 teams now that are under .500, and 2 of them are 1 game under.

The Flames are one little 3-4 game losing streak from being in the mix for bottom 10.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

If the Flames falter and drop into a top 10 pick this season I would say it would have to be considered a pretty good success. It was important they got off to the horrendous start last year as it stopped Conroy from caving to any of the contract demands he had from Lindholm. The only thing is they likely would have got the Hanifin extension done as it was extremely close last year but the losses gave him pause. But that horrible start allowed the team to chart a new path.

This year if they wind up with the 9th pick it is because they fell off in the second half. They gave us glimpses of hope throughout the year and seeing Wolf, Coronato, and Zary all make an impact is great. Our season wasn’t over in November this year like it was in 23-24 and this team has been far more competitive than most thought.

In all honesty for the rest of the year I hope this team continues to drop in the standings to secure their own pick in the draft and Andersson lights up the 4 nations and gets Conroy an absolute haul at the deadline.

I do think this team can be an up and coming playoff team by the time Scotia Place opens but we need a couple more high picks to hope that team can become a contender in 5-7 years

Last seaosn after November the Flames were 10-10-3, mainly because they had a fantastic November. This year after November the Flames were 12-9-4. Not a whole lot different.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yup, there are only 10 teams now that are under .500, and 2 of them are 1 game under.

The Flames are one little 3-4 game losing streak from being in the mix for bottom 10.

Misa Bros! Coming soon to your Calgary Flames!

Letsa go!

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Last seaosn after November the Flames were 10-10-3, mainly because they had a fantastic November. This year after November the Flames were 12-9-4. Not a whole lot different.

I didn’t say after November. Where were they at the beginning of the month and the middle of the month? They went on a 4 game win streak in the back half of that month after starting the year. They were 5-8-2 on November 14th for a 0.400 points percentage and 5pts out of a playoff spot.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I didn’t say after November. Where were they at the beginning of the month and the middle of the month? They went on a 4 game win streak in the back half of that month after starting the year. They were 5-8-2 on November 14th for a 0.400 points percentage and 5pts out of a playoff spot.

But the season wasn't over, even in mid-November. Because they came back and were actually in a PO spot hunt by the time November ended.

[Bonded]

The Flames were only three points out of a playoff spot at the midway point last year


https://media.nhl.com/public/news/17585

[Vinny01]

Did it ever feel like we were in the race last year? I just recall the horrible start and basically announcing that every UFA was walking.

Interesting what the first 10 games can do to a perception. Flames were horrendous 10 games in but this year with the 4-0-1 start it had much better vibes. With how bad the 22-23 season ended it just seemed like the vibes were bad around the team all of last year

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Did it ever feel like we were in the race last year? I just recall the horrible start and basically announcing that every UFA was walking.

Interesting what the first 10 games can do to a perception. Flames were horrendous 10 games in but this year with the 4-0-1 start it had much better vibes. With how bad the 22-23 season ended it just seemed like the vibes were bad around the team all of last year

I had some hope Dec-February.

We played well without Hanifin and Tanev for about two weeks and then it all fell apart rapidly.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Did it ever feel like we were in the race last year? I just recall the horrible start and basically announcing that every UFA was walking.

Interesting what the first 10 games can do to a perception. Flames were horrendous 10 games in but this year with the 4-0-1 start it had much better vibes. With how bad the 22-23 season ended it just seemed like the vibes were bad around the team all of last year

People just remember the bad start and finish to the season and expectations. They were basically in the same spot last year but there was still a little hope going into the season they were going to turn it around. This year there was basically no expectations

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Lamenting the timing of a team over achieving is fine.

But this team was set up to fail.

The "organization" didn't aim for the mushy middle with $20M in free cap space, 6 UFAs dealt and their number goaltender moved on without a veteran replacement.

Your blaming unexpected results on a plan that doesn't fit.

If we sell on Andersson, dump Vladar, traded Coleman, and bring in some more youth from the Wranglers I'm not sure we do worse. We probably do the same and are just struggling to hit the cap floor.

What would be a great outcome would be if the Flames brass realize they could use the draft / Wranglers to have a cap floor team that still pushes for the playoffs each season, selling off aging players and replacing them with youth.

We'd still have the same Ownership / Management problem, but at least we'd increase our chances of catching lightening in a bottle and getting lucky. Our ownership can't run the best out of 32 entertainment company with their low cost model in my opinion, but they can run a resource company to perfection. Resource companies keep their costs low, and wait for prices to improve. That could be us!

What gets old is when we plaster older veteran players into roles that should be openings for our youth. The NHL trend has been youth as it expands. It's happened before and its happening again.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

If we sell on Andersson, dump Vladar, traded Coleman, and bring in some more youth from the Wranglers I'm not sure we do worse. We probably do the same and are just struggling to hit the cap floor.

Our ownership can't run the best out of 32 entertainment company with their low cost model in my opinion, but they can run a resource company to perfection

I think trading Andersson would be felt immediately. The Flames would have one actual top 4 dman.



The one thing I don't you can accuse Edwards of being is cheap with the Flames.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I think trading Andersson would be felt immediately. The Flames would have one actual top 4 dman.



The one thing I don't you can accuse Edwards of being is cheap with the Flames.

We should actually have an Edwards mega thread...but I do feel I need to elaborate on my view, as I agree with your points.

1. Edwards is the owner, he can do what he wants with the team while he owns it.
2. I don't think Edwards is cheap.
3. Personally I am not a fan of the low cost entertainment model. My belief is that you need to invest in these types of businesses and grow them across a number of revenue channels consistently and constantly. Love and engage your customer.

My issues with ownership is that I see them as accounting CEOs, they have to cut costs and raise prices to make their margins. It's their only play. I want the marketing CEO who grows the brand and invests in the product so that I feel good being a part of it.

[Jay Random]

People keep talking as if Edwards were the sole owner. He isn't. He's not even the majority owner. The team would not be run the way it is without the approval of the whole group.

[Jay Random]

By the way, a little tidbit:

After their two recent losses, the Flames are now in the bottom 10 of the league by goal differential. That's usually a pretty fair predictor of how the rest of their season is liable to go.

(But did anyone's bingo card have, ‘Halfway through the season, the Flames will be above Boston in both points percentage and goal differential?’ Oof, the Bruins are not looking good.)