Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Junglist

Season is not even half over yet.
The Blues were 31st in the league on Jan 2nd 2019 and won the Cup.

The Blues had to have the best record in the league to reverse that.
The Flames will need to have amongst the worst records in the league to go bottom 10; you're proving my point.

Last season the bottom 10 started at 0.494% win percentage or 81 points.
Right now it's 0.500 so maybe the cutoff will be 82 points.

The Flames have 43 points through 37 games which means they need to get less than 39 points in the remaining 45 games for a 0.4333%.
There's only 4 teams currently playing that bad, Buffalo, Nashville, SJ & Chicago.

People are underestimating how bad the Flames now need to get to drop into bottom 10 range.
I want a high draft pick as much as anyone but math exists and the Flames need to quickly become San Jose bad if they're dropping that far.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

I want a high draft pick as much as anyone but math exists and the Flames need to quickly become San Jose bad if they're dropping that far.

And as the recent history of the Sharks shows, it's a long, hard slog to come back from being San Jose bad. That team wasn't torn down to the studs; it was bulldozed right down to the foundation, and they're building a new team on top of the rubble. That's an unnecessary amount of pain for a rebuild.

[Roof-Daddy]

Looks like the team has a legit goalie and he's only 23 years old.

The D looks decent enough for now, and they have a seriously deep D prospect pool with some potential studs in there as well.

Wingers aren't bad, and the prospect pool is pretty strong in that area as well.

Crap ton of cap space and flexibility going forward too.

Need to dig up some high end centers though. Not great at the NHL level and nothing in the pipeline either.

[Hackey]

The forward group is pretty weak. Not a single top line players as of yet. Prospects so far are more middle 6 guys. The team is still lead by vets other than Wolf. Zary and Coronato have been decent but I don't think they're bringing anything exceptional that most nhl'ers wouldn't bring with their deployment.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Hackey

The forward group is pretty weak. Not a single top line players as of yet. Prospects so far are more middle 6 guys. The team is still lead by vets other than Wolf. Zary and Coronato have been decent but I don't think they're bringing anything exceptional that most nhl'ers wouldn't bring with their deployment.

Oh yeah, we definitely need at least two more top line players, likely one of those needs to be an elite center if we're going to contend.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Looks like the team has a legit goalie and he's only 23 years old.

The D looks decent enough for now, and they have a seriously deep D prospect pool with some potential studs in there as well.

Wingers aren't bad, and the prospect pool is pretty strong in that area as well.

Crap ton of cap space and flexibility going forward too.

Need to dig up some high end centers though. Not great at the NHL level and nothing in the pipeline either.

I think they are going to have to buy one. Who’s going to trade a high end center?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

And as the recent history of the Sharks shows, it's a long, hard slog to come back from being San Jose bad. That team wasn't torn down to the studs; it was bulldozed right down to the foundation, and they're building a new team on top of the rubble. That's an unnecessary amount of pain for a rebuild.

The Sharks have Celebrini, Smith, Askarov and maybe even a Schaefer in this draft.

They are closer to winning a Cup than Calgary.

You may say it's an unnecessary amount of pain, but I'd say it's a necessary amount of pain for a proper rebuild.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I still see a bottom 10 finish for this team very likely this season. However, I am not going to sit around and mope because this team is winning - winning is fun. I am not happy about losing to Utah tonight, but I am comforted that it will help the Flames draft higher (assuming they fall to the bottom 10).


If they draft in the top 10? Fantastic. This organization needs an injection of HIGH skill.
If they make the playoffs? Fantastic. Would love for the 2nd lowest capped team with zero expectations to make the playoffs embarrassing a couple of other teams that should have made it, and maybe further embarrassing their 1st round opponent too. That would be epic. Either way, I am happy.


The in-between part sucks, and I just overlook it for now. Plenty of games left for the Flames to go either way. The Montreal trade hovers like a dark cloud, but it is what it is now. That's Treliving's mistake. Conroy can't really pull the plug on this season yet just because of optics. Even if the Flames end up picking 11th, it is still better for the organization than finishing 16th and just out of the playoffs, because they are picking 11th in every round rather than 16th, if that makes any sense. Just the optics suck.


At the start of this season, I just came out with the attitude that I will enjoy every win as they come, and I will comfort myself with losses that help this team draft better, and not cry or pout about which segment of the overall rankings they end up in - the bottom, the mushy middle, or into the playoffs. Just enjoy the ride.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

The Sharks have Celebrini, Smith, Askarov and maybe even a Schaefer in this draft.

They are closer to winning a Cup than Calgary.

No ####, Sherlock. The Flames started their rebuild one (1) year ago. The Sharks are heading for their sixth consecutive year out of the playoffs.

You may say it's an unnecessary amount of pain, but I'd say it's a necessary amount of pain for a proper rebuild.

The Sharks finished dead last with 47 points and got Macklin Celebrini. The New Jersey Devils finished with a .493 record in 2020 and got Jack Hughes. No matter how high you draft, you are limited by the quality of players available that year, and more often than not, there isn't a single player who can turn a franchise around. You don't get to unlock a super secret generational player by being extra bad.

The fact that you're borrowing draft picks from the Sharks' future to brag about how well they're doing… means… well, that they aren't doing that bloody well.

[BrownDrake]

Let me also list the following Top 10 picks from the 6 drafts from 2014 to 2019 drafts that are not franchise altering picks, also no guarantee of getting this valuable prize as result of sucking for a year. Dal Colle, Haydn Fleury, Virtanen, Dubois, Puljuarvi, Juolevi, Jost, Glass, Lias Andersson, Mittelstadt, Patrick, Kotkaniemi, Hayton, Zadina, Kravtsov, Kakko, Turcotte, Cozens, Broberg, Zegras, Podkolzin; You can argue with the list and their "value" but I would say that roughly 1/3 of those 60 top picks aren't worth sucking for. If I tabulated the names in the 5 to 10 range it might be more like 50% meh.



Yes there are beautiful players at the top of the draft but no real guarantees outside the top 3 or 4 of each draft. I'm not really sure a ninth overall pick is that much better for the current group than losing out in a tight playoff race and picking 14th and getting some experience in close games and staying competitive. What is important is having the skill, ability or luck to hit on your 2nd, 3rd and later round picks. Hopefully over the next 2-3 drafts we also get some lotto luck that lets us pick at least once in the top 3 or 4.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

And as the recent history of the Sharks shows, it's a long, hard slog to come back from being San Jose bad. That team wasn't torn down to the studs; it was bulldozed right down to the foundation, and they're building a new team on top of the rubble. That's an unnecessary amount of pain for a rebuild.

The problem with the Sharks rebuild (and others like them) is they were in denial about the need for a rebuild and waited until they were already old and bad to start the sell-off. Most of their assets had declined in value to nothing, so they didn’t boost their rebuild with a lot of extra picks and prospects.

Still, they landed Celebrini, who will soon be an elite #1C (IMHO he’s going to be better than Bedard). So they’ve already checked off the most important element of a rebuild.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by BrownDrake

Let me also list the following Top 10 picks from the 6 drafts from 2014 to 2019 drafts that are not franchise altering picks, also no guarantee of getting this valuable prize as result of sucking for a year. Dal Colle, Haydn Fleury, Virtanen, Dubois, Puljuarvi, Juolevi, Jost, Glass, Lias Andersson, Mittelstadt, Patrick, Kotkaniemi, Hayton, Zadina, Kravtsov, Kakko, Turcotte, Cozens, Broberg, Zegras, Podkolzin; You can argue with the list and their "value" but I would say that roughly 1/3 of those 60 top picks aren't worth sucking for. If I tabulated the names in the 5 to 10 range it might be more like 50% meh.

Yes there are beautiful players at the top of the draft but no real guarantees outside the top 3 or 4 of each draft. I'm not really sure a ninth overall pick is that much better for the current group than losing out in a tight playoff race and picking 14th and getting some experience in close games and staying competitive. What is important is having the skill, ability or luck to hit on your 2nd, 3rd and later round picks. Hopefully over the next 2-3 drafts we also get some lotto luck that lets us pick at least once in the top 3 or 4.

The Flames don’t keep their pick if they finish 14th

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

No ####, Sherlock. The Flames started their rebuild one (1) year ago. The Sharks are heading for their sixth consecutive year out of the playoffs.



The Sharks finished dead last with 47 points and got Macklin Celebrini. The New Jersey Devils finished with a .493 record in 2020 and got Jack Hughes. No matter how high you draft, you are limited by the quality of players available that year, and more often than not, there isn't a single player who can turn a franchise around. You don't get to unlock a super secret generational player by being extra bad.

The fact that you're borrowing draft picks from the Sharks' future to brag about how well they're doing… means… well, that they aren't doing that bloody well.

Hughes and Celebrini are elite. I’m willing to bet Celebrini has multiple Hart nominations in his future. Those are exactly the kinds of players you’re hoping to draft when you tank.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by BrownDrake

Let me also list the following Top 10 picks from the 6 drafts from 2014 to 2019 drafts that are not franchise altering picks, also no guarantee of getting this valuable prize as result of sucking for a year. Dal Colle, Haydn Fleury, Virtanen, Dubois, Puljuarvi, Juolevi, Jost, Glass, Lias Andersson, Mittelstadt, Patrick, Kotkaniemi, Hayton, Zadina, Kravtsov, Kakko, Turcotte, Cozens, Broberg, Zegras, Podkolzin; You can argue with the list and their "value" but I would say that roughly 1/3 of those 60 top picks aren't worth sucking for. If I tabulated the names in the 5 to 10 range it might be more like 50% meh.



Yes there are beautiful players at the top of the draft but no real guarantees outside the top 3 or 4 of each draft. I'm not really sure a ninth overall pick is that much better for the current group than losing out in a tight playoff race and picking 14th and getting some experience in close games and staying competitive. What is important is having the skill, ability or luck to hit on your 2nd, 3rd and later round picks. Hopefully over the next 2-3 drafts we also get some lotto luck that lets us pick at least once in the top 3 or 4.

You are quite correct, even higher draft picks is no guarantee of a successful pick(s).

But you'll agree that the better the pick(s), the better the odds.

Calgary is not giving themselves the best odds of picking elite players.

[BrownDrake]

I get that Bonded, the point i was making that intentionally tanking or telling competitive players its not important to win and winding up in 9th or 10th isn't necessarily going to be "good" for your team.


People are just having a hard time accepting that we are not the sharks, old coyotes or the recent blackhawks. We are a decent competitive team with a young allstar goalie that is likely in the mushy middle where 10-12 teams are every year. You also can't trade a lot of our pieces that are keeping us there due to prior bad decisions.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by BrownDrake

Let me also list the following Top 10 picks from the 6 drafts from 2014 to 2019 drafts that are not franchise altering picks, also no guarantee of getting this valuable prize as result of sucking for a year. Dal Colle, Haydn Fleury, Virtanen, Dubois, Puljuarvi, Juolevi, Jost, Glass, Lias Andersson, Mittelstadt, Patrick, Kotkaniemi, Hayton, Zadina, Kravtsov, Kakko, Turcotte, Cozens, Broberg, Zegras, Podkolzin; You can argue with the list and their "value" but I would say that roughly 1/3 of those 60 top picks aren't worth sucking for. If I tabulated the names in the 5 to 10 range it might be more like 50% meh.



Yes there are beautiful players at the top of the draft but no real guarantees outside the top 3 or 4 of each draft. I'm not really sure a ninth overall pick is that much better for the current group than losing out in a tight playoff race and picking 14th and getting some experience in close games and staying competitive. What is important is having the skill, ability or luck to hit on your 2nd, 3rd and later round picks. Hopefully over the next 2-3 drafts we also get some lotto luck that lets us pick at least once in the top 3 or 4.

I agree with the point you are making, but the problem is that this year, the cost of that competing isn't a slide from 9 to 14, it's a slide from 9 to 25-30. The cost of finishing in the 11-16 pocket, this year, is very high.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

This is not a competitive team though. They scrape out weak wins in regular season stretches but 0 chance they win a playoff series. Over the last year they are 17th in point percentage. Continued mediocrity. The competitive nature of this roster is a complete mirage propped up by the majestic Dustin Wolf.

It would be a catastrophic error to not treat the team as such.

So the answer is to bench Wolf? What are you suggesting the Flames should do?

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

No ####, Sherlock. The Flames started their rebuild one (1) year ago. The Sharks are heading for their sixth consecutive year out of the playoffs.



The Sharks finished dead last with 47 points and got Macklin Celebrini. The New Jersey Devils finished with a .493 record in 2020 and got Jack Hughes. No matter how high you draft, you are limited by the quality of players available that year, and more often than not, there isn't a single player who can turn a franchise around. You don't get to unlock a super secret generational player by being extra bad.

The fact that you're borrowing draft picks from the Sharks' future to brag about how well they're doing… means… well, that they aren't doing that bloody well.

We really haven't started the rebuild in my mind. The last piece to leave was March of 2024. We haven't even had a draft with our torn down roster, this was supposed to be the first.

It is what it is at this point. If I had to pick a draft we surprised it would be the 25 draft, would suck if it was the McKenna draft and we have a extra lottery ticket. Think we get some more 1st rounders in the 27 and 28 drafts as well.

[traptor]

We have everything set in place to be a mushy middle team for the next decade...

G
Good young goalie.. Decent depth at every position but center.
Minimal elite talent.

Why do I feel like we're going to end up were we always do...

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by BrownDrake

I get that Bonded, the point i was making that intentionally tanking or telling competitive players its not important to win and winding up in 9th or 10th isn't necessarily going to be "good" for your team.


People are just having a hard time accepting that we are not the sharks, old coyotes or the recent blackhawks. We are a decent competitive team with a young allstar goalie that is likely in the mushy middle where 10-12 teams are every year. You also can't trade a lot of our pieces that are keeping us there due to prior bad decisions.

I don’t really buy into the idea that teams tell their players to not win and they go and do it. Most of the tanks are the results of bad rosters and going scorched earth is harder to comeback from because a team needs to get lucky when they draft and have strong management.

Treliving had a contending core if he kept the players the Flames drafted. I think the Flames need to find a star winger, a star center, and a star dman. Maybe they have the dman and winger in the system but they definitely don’t have the centre.