2024/2025 Season trade rumours and speculation thread

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Biased against Vladar ?

People showing stats and advanced stats showing he statistically one of the worse goalies over the last two years isn’t bias

You need to remember that Enoch doesn't believe in ‘advanced’ goalie stats at all. (I myself think they're informative but radically incomplete.) One of the weaknesses of those stats is that they don't have enough granularity at the high end in measuring scoring chances. Both in the first period of the season vs. Vancouver, and in the last period of the Tampa Bay game, Vladar faced an absurd number of shots coming off of completely botched defensive plays… the kind that get made into ‘This Guy Scored’ memes when they happen to the Oilers. No goalie in the world would have looked good in those two periods. (People with a trained eye for hockey said Vladar was only at fault on one of the 8 goals in the Tampa game.) The data set is still small enough for those periods to have a disproportionate impact on the overall stats.

I'm not saying Vladar is a starter. But he's a perfectly acceptable backup and possibly a little more, playing behind a team that needs star-quality goaltending to scrape out wins.

Some teams make goaltending look easy – Boston, for many years. Some teams make it impossible – San Jose in recent times. The Flames are much closer to the San Jose end of that scale.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Just looking at the numbers for a goalie just doesn't tell the story.

Vladar has been really good at times, good at times, and has had 2 or 3 soft games (every goalie does).

He has also had a few games where the team hung him out to dry: 1st period against VAN, the 5-1 game in VGS, and the 8-3 game against the Bolts.

In those three games, he is 1-2-0, 6.00 GAA, .795 S%

In the other 14 games, he is 5-4-5, 2.50 GAA, .907 S% with 2 shutouts.

No, you can't just cherry pick numbers. But you can analyse the data and dig a little deeper. He simply has not been 'bad' this year. He's been pretty good to good, with a couple ugly games (which weren't his fault)

Thanks - I wondered how those stinkers by the Flames affetced his numbers.

What any buying teams are looking for in a backup is not some standout goalie because they aren't getting one. They want a guy with experience against a lot of teams, who can handle NHL play. He's got as much experience as most available goalies.

[dino7c]

Take away his bad games and he is awesome

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

You think other goalies don’t have games they get hung out to dry?

Such a weird argument - ignore the numbers from the last two seasons that say he’s not a good goalie , because ….. if you take out his horrible games he’s an ok goalie ? That he has been good at times ?

Guess what - the rest of the leagues goalies also look a lot better if you remove their worse games too !

What shows that he hasn’t been “bad” this year other than your opinion compared to other goalies if you remove their 20% worse games

I think you're reframing Enoch Root's assertion here.

If were solely to look at quality starts (QS / QS%) and really bad starts (RBS):



Vladar's been a little below average (league average is .560) but he's still had a decent year. If you think Wolf's had a strong year, despite only a league-average QS%, then you probably already agree that the Flames are a team that doesn't exactly set their goalies up for success, and that's the only curve we can really grade Vladar on.

Or, put another way, he's been about as good as Sergei Bobrovsky this year. Unremarkable, but not a liability.

[Strange Brew]

Those numbers show that Vladar is in the bottom third of quality starts, I don’t think that’s particularly good.

Now Enoch’s assertion is that the bad starts aren’t Vladar’s fault so he wants to only look at his stats without them. Every goalie has bad starts and games where the team plays poorly in front of them. And games where they don’t have to do much at all.

The answer IMO isn’t to cherry pick the stats you like but you just need to gradually wait for bigger sample sizes.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Take away his bad games and he is awesome

960 today:

"Vladar bounced back nicely in that one"

Bounced back with an .895, interesting bar we're setting.

A lot of goalies have seen implosions by their teams and average over .900 even with those factored in.

Omitting bad team efforts is omitting part of the workload that counts for every one else.

And that's not to #### on Vladar who I actually like as far as backups we've had. He may be the best one we've had over the last decade. He just has the misfortune of sharing the net with Wolf, who every one wants to see start as many games as possible for selfish fan reasons.

I just like to see players evaluated by the same metric without mulligans given to try to stretch the truth or make a point (as you've alluded to).

[Junglist]

Vladar is a below average backup.

[Badgers Nose]

I can’t wait til he’s traded so that we can talk about someone else.

Hey Junglist, why don’t you change the subject by telling us who else is below average on the Flames?

[Junglist]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

I can’t wait til he’s traded so that we can talk about someone else.

Hey Junglist, why don’t you change the subject by telling us who else is below average on the Flames?

Nah, I’m good.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Take away his bad games and he is awesome

I wasn't taking away his bad games, I was taking away the Flames' bad games where they abandoned him.

It's a simple statement, and people can make of it as they wish

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

I just like to see players evaluated by the same metric without mulligans given to try to stretch the truth or make a point (as you've alluded to).

Except even when people do that they don’t usually make conclusions that those metrics actually signify.

You’ll hear all the time that a goalie with a .920 sv% is better than one with a .889 sv%. Nobody would even blink an eye at that statement. But all that actually tells us is which goalie has a better sv%, which a ton of factors go into, not who is the better goaltender.

Wolf, for example, is legitimately one of the best goaltenders I’ve ever seen live. He’s better than some of the guys with better sv% right now and I don’t think anyone who has watched him would disagree with that even though if you evaluate players strictly by the same metric it might tell a different story.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Because of simple logic. ‘A is better than B’ does not mean B is bad.



He's playing behind a horrible team with a horrible defence, which has only been kept in games by goaltending most nights. Of course his numbers look like crap. It also doesn't help that he got stuck with debacles like the 8-3 loss to Tampa in which the team simply gave up.

You're underrating both goalies here. Wolf has been absolutely stellar. Vladar has been as good as he should be.

So explain last year...and the year before and the year before that.

Im most certainly not under rating Wolf...he has been better than anyone could have predicted.

Vladar though? Easily predictable because he doing the exact same thing he has done since entering the league.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I wasn't taking away his bad games, I was taking away the Flames' bad games where they abandoned him.

It's a simple statement, and people can make of it as they wish

Sure but what are you comparing those adjusted numbers to? A .909 save percentage taking away games where the team didn’t play well. Is that good?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by transplant99

So explain last year...and the year before and the year before that.

Last year and the year before, Vladar was playing on bad hips. He got the same results playing behind good teams with bad hips that he is now getting by playing behind a bad team with good hips. This suggests that his personal performance has improved, because he sure as hell isn't getting the same level of help from his teammates.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Sure but what are you comparing those adjusted numbers to? A .909 save percentage taking away games where the team didn’t play well. Is that good?

League average so far this season is almost exactly .900. So the numbers suggest that Vladar is capable of NHL-average goaltending if the skaters in front of him are actually doing their job. I don't think anybody would claim more than that.

[transplant99]

So....everyone elses fault, bad luck, and poor timing.

OK then.

[Southside]

Trade rumours and speculation.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by transplant99

So....everyone elses fault, bad luck, and poor timing.

OK then.

And bad hips . Don’t forget bad hips

[Heavy Jack]

The flames have gutted the team from when Vladar joined until now and Vladar has remained a solid and respectable 1B or backup for the majority. I don’t know what people are expecting out of him but he has long since surpassed the value of the 3rd it cost to obtain him and likely he’ll return at least that 3rd back. Seems like a pointless debate.

[Royle9]

Vladar is what he is, a serviceable backup and there are teams with significant interest.
Carolina at the top of that list.

Craig is not in any sort of hurry to move him however, so he’s waiting until the offers land in his favour. This means there needs to be more than 1 team in desperate need of a goalie. Carolina made an offer (believed to be a 3rd rnd pick) but Craig is hoping for a 2nd.

Will likely head to the deadline until he’s moved, unless another team enters the fold and ponies up. Carolina isn’t in an hurry to give a 2nd up when they’re the only serious team with an offer right now.