Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Speaking of crappy leaders, if there was ever a time for the NDP to gain some momentum in Canada, it is now but it's just not happening under Singh.

The only parties that will gain ground are the conservatives and the Bloc. The Liberals might be heading towards non party status and the NDP will probably be on their coat tails due to attaching themselves to Trudeau. I can’t believe Singh attached himself to Trudeau for as long as he did. Especially since he was obviously a dead man walking.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Goriders

The only parties that will gain ground are the conservatives and the Bloc. The Liberals might be heading towards non party status and the NDP will probably be on their coat tails due to attaching themselves to Trudeau. I can’t believe Singh attached himself to Trudeau for as long as he did. Especially since he was obviously a dead man walking.

Partied so hard last night that you’re still drunk this morning? I respect that.

[Julio]

Originally Posted by chemgear

This federal government is basically setting up the next government with an economic #### sandwich that'll take a decade at least to start to fix.

"Oh we're gonna get voted out eh? Let's drag this out as long as we can and grab everything that isn't tied down as we leave. Even the ####ing lightbulbs."

In 2026:

"Oh, look this new government hasn't fixed all the #### we destroyed over the course of a decade! OMG, they're terrible, now vote us back in so we can do it again."

Based on the past, this seems to be more from the Conservative playbook than that of other parties. Heck, the Sask. Party still was saying that this year after being in power for almost 2 decades.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Beninho

Harper had a lower deficit during the worst global recession of the last century. I was never even a huge Harper fan but Canada is in desperate need for a PM who is an economic expert. Not sure that is coming regardless who is elected but that number is legitimately breathtaking in a bad way

Pretty much every first world country went bigger on stimulus this time and it worked. Unemployed stayed low, the harm to individuals and the economy was minimized. But it caused a bit of inflation and turns out that voters really hate inflation. So now all the incumbent governments are getting turfed, and the lesson for politicians is that even though stimulus worked economically, you're better off with austerity politically. Next recession we'll probably screw it up with austerity because voters collectively didn't recognize that their governments actually did a a great job and we'd rather have a small percent of the population starve in unemployment that spread the pain around with inflation.

Also $55.6B in 2010 is $76.6B in 2024 dollars. Not that I care. That was also stimulus spending that happened thanks to Liberals and NDP threatening non-confidence over Harper's initial austerity plans, and it was a good deficit to run.

I have a much greater objection to the structural deficit Harper created by cutting the GST, which was economic nonsense that used up our "fiscal powder" to buy votes. Hrm...

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SebC

Pretty much every first world country went bigger on stimulus this time and it worked. Unemployed stayed low, the harm to individuals and the economy was minimized. But it caused a bit of inflation and turns out that voters really hate inflation. So now all the incumbent governments are getting turfed, and the lesson for politicians is that even though stimulus worked economically, you're better off with austerity politically. Next recession we'll probably screw it up with austerity because voters collectively didn't recognize that their governments actually did a a great job and we'd rather have a small percent of the population starve in unemployment that spread the pain around with inflation.

Also $55.6B in 2010 is $76.6B in 2024 dollars. Not that I care. That was also stimulus spending that happened thanks to Liberals and NDP threatening non-confidence over Harper's initial austerity plans, and it was a good deficit to run.

I have a much greater objection to the structural deficit Harper created by cutting the GST, which was economic nonsense that used up our "fiscal powder" to buy votes. Hrm...

This is the thing. People talk about optic moves (and the GST holiday is certainly that) but by and large the Liberals, like Biden, like a lot of European countries, made decent policy choices under the circumstances. Austerity moves would behave 100% been the wrong thing to do.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Singh’s pension kicks in Feb 25th. My guess is he pushes for non confidence on the 26th. Unless Trudeau sewers him out of spite before the 25th.

Canada deserves better leadership. The current crop is an embarrassment.

Singhs seat is not at risk so why does this matter?

[GGG]

Given the current composition of Canada a Conservative minority government where the NDP/Liberals hold the balance of power will end up as a failed conservative minority with a liberal/NDP government taking over. If the Bloc hold the balance of power we get a conservative minority propped up with payments to Quebec.

The parties will vote based on the probability of their desired outcomes. While we are in conservative majority territory the NDP and Bloc don’t want an election.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by GGG

Singhs seat is not at risk so why does this matter?

If the NDP gets trashed in the next election he'll likely get pushed out as leader and will probably resign as well.

So why does it not matter?

[Azure]

Originally Posted by GGG

Given the current composition of Canada a Conservative minority government where the NDP/Liberals hold the balance of power will end up as a failed conservative minority with a liberal/NDP government taking over. If the Bloc hold the balance of power we get a conservative minority propped up with payments to Quebec.

The parties will vote based on the probability of their desired outcomes. While we are in conservative majority territory the NDP and Bloc don’t want an election.

The Bloc has not voted on the Liberal side in the non confidence votes so how do they not want an election right now?

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

This is the thing. People talk about optic moves (and the GST holiday is certainly that) but by and large the Liberals, like Biden, like a lot of European countries, made decent policy choices under the circumstances. Austerity moves would behave 100% been the wrong thing to do.

The fact that the "Great Recession" which was just triggered by Wall Street nonsense was worse than one caused by an actual physical virus that required people to isolate from each other really validates that governments did a better job this time.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Azure

The Bloc has not voted on the Liberal side in the non confidence votes so how do they not want an election right now?

Because they feel they can do more for their constituents with a Liberal government than a Conservative one.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Azure

The Bloc has not voted on the Liberal side in the non confidence votes so how do they not want an election right now?

They might want one - I think they see an increase in their seats is quite possible. OTOH they might have figured the NDP would shoot it down so they could freely vote in favour without risk of it actually passing.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by GGG

Singhs seat is not at risk so why does this matter?

He probably won't lose it, but for a seat that used to be a guarantee, this isn't a good trend for the NDP.

https://338canada.com/bc/1009e.htm

I know people keep saying why would the NDP want an election now just to give the election to the Conservatives, and that things can turn around in the new year, but this trend is getting worse and worse for the NDP.

It's actually embarrassing given the state of the Liberals that the NDP haven't been able to make up any ground.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Azure

The Bloc has not voted on the Liberal side in the non confidence votes so how do they not want an election right now?

How far down the game theory rabbit hole do you want to go.

I’d argue they know the NDP will prop up the government because the NDP has more to lose so regardless of how the Bloc votes it doesn’t inform us of their preference.

There also an interesting question of even in a vote of non-confidence we’re to go through it’s still open whether or not it they want it to go through. If frame it as it’s currently more politically damaging for the Bloc to support the current government then to vote for an election but they would prefer an election to occur when the cons or liberals are in minority territory than majority.

So their vote is based on the likelihood of the NDP supporting the government and the balance between not wanting to look like they support a government and there bed opportunity to hold the balance of power.

[indes]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

He probably won't lose it, but for a seat that used to be a guarantee, this isn't a good trend for the NDP.

https://338canada.com/bc/1009e.htm

I know people keep saying why would the NDP want an election now just to give the election to the Conservatives, and that things can turn around in the new year, but this trend is getting worse and worse for the NDP.

It's actually embarrassing given the state of the Liberals that the NDP haven't been able to make up any ground.

What a horrendous term this has been for the NDP. I'm no fan but boy did they ever tie themselves to a sinking ship. Poor bet off the hop and they just keep doubling down, Singh has completely sunk the credibility of the party. They should've seen a huge surge with the downfall of the LPC but I feel like they played themselves out of being a viable option.

I think people who can't stand to vote for the CPC will hold their noses and vote for the libs again, instead of moving to the NDP where you would think the votes would typically go.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Azure

Yeah but that PP guy. He's such a ######bag. Didn't ya know.

He is an effing deplorable dbag. what is your point? Was his olive branch delicious?

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

He probably won't lose it, but for a seat that used to be a guarantee, this isn't a good trend for the NDP.

https://338canada.com/bc/1009e.htm

I know people keep saying why would the NDP want an election now just to give the election to the Conservatives, and that things can turn around in the new year, but this trend is getting worse and worse for the NDP.

It's actually embarrassing given the state of the Liberals that the NDP haven't been able to make up any ground.

That's the BC provincial map. Burnaby district changed recently as well and Singh's Burnaby South riding is being split in two

Here are the 2 ridings it has split into.

https://338canada.com/59002e.htm

https://338canada.com/59037e.htm

In other words, things are far worse for the NDP and Singh. I don't believe it's known yet what riding Singh would run for in a future election as a result of the district change but I expect he may be moved to a safer riding (New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville next door covers most of Peter Julien's New Westminster-Burnaby's riding last election and is a safe bet currently).

[shotinthebacklund]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

He is an effing deplorable dbag. what is your point? Was his olive branch delicious?

Which one? Trudeau or Singh? I would argue both.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Cappy

How do you do that outside stacking the SCC to overturn a few decades of precedents.



Court payouts and blank cheques aren't the same thing.

Lib/Con/NDP are all having to pay these out

I decided to look into this a bit.

It seems like the supreme court itself found that any modifications to it's composition would require a full unanimous constitutional change. Which is kind of strange, because the supreme court's composition isn't really referenced outside of that one line in the actual constitution. Who's to say the composition includes the number of people in it?

Yes, at current rate it would require the death and replacement of each individual judge to overturn. Long term. Seems easier to throw out Canada than achieve that or a constitutional change.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by shotinthebacklund

Which one? Trudeau or Singh? I would argue both.

The Manning Institute's test tube baby! Remember a vote for Peppy Lepew is a vote for an olive branch up an orifice.