2024 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[flamingred89]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

They are practically the same age have played a very similar amount of MLB games, Vladdy has 17 career fWAR, Soto has 36 career fWAR.

(Soto has 4000~ career PA's, Vladdy has 3500~ career PA's)

They're not really even in the same stratosphere

Haha c'mon. Same stratosphere? Absolutely they are. This is where WAR jumps the shark a bit. Because Soto plays a more "premier" position in RF. Although horribly. His -5dwar is hilariously bad. He gets more credit for in the offensive metrics playing where he does. Vladdy has more contact in his bat and his peaks have been higher than Soto's. Not saying Vlad is better or even as good. Just saying that they're more comparable than a potential contract may suggest.

Also surprising to see that Soto has only eclipsed 300 total bases once in his career. Something Vlad has done 3 times. I guess it also depends on how much you value walks. Which also depends on if you have players that can do something when you get on base.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by flamingred89

Haha c'mon. Same stratosphere? Absolutely they are. This is where WAR jumps the shark a bit. Because Soto plays a more "premier" position in RF. Although horribly. His -5dwar is hilariously bad. He gets more credit for in the offensive metrics playing where he does. Vladdy has more contact in his bat and his peaks have been higher than Soto's. Not saying Vlad is better or even as good. Just saying that they're more comparable than a potential contract may suggest.

Also surprising to see that Soto has only eclipsed 300 total bases once in his career. Something Vlad has done 3 times. I guess it also depends on how much you value walks. Which also depends on if you have players that can do something when you get on base.

Soto is a better and more consistent hitter over a very large sample size, he's also a better base runner and plays better D at a more important position (even though he sucks at base running and D, he's still better than Vlad).

I dunno, you asked why the discrepancy in their projected contracts and I gave what I thought was the answer.

Hopefully the Jays have both their bats in the line up next season, and Vlad keeps hitting like he did post hair cut.

[ben voyonsdonc]

IMO Bo and Vlad struggled greatly when they were basically told that they had to carry the team on their shoulders. As the team got further and further away from the playoffs, the pressure on Vlad began to release and he became the player that he is capable of. I think a big bat would relieve that pressure and both will be better players.

I can’t see a way that Bo is with the team in 2026 but we could get the very best of Bo next year if a primary bat is brought in.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I think it depends on what happens with Bo next year. If they keep him, do we think he can rebound to be the hitter he's been for most of his career.

If they have a strong rotation, a lineup that has Vladdy, Soto and a rebounding Bo, and an improved bull pen (always a hard to predict x-factor) you don't think they can compete?

I think the world of Bo's bat, but I see many problems with the rest of the lineup.


Springer's career is likely on it's way down with severe back issues
Varsho is a wildcard with the bat
There likely won't be money to pay for a 3rd baseman, 2nd baseman or a DH
Kirk's weight is a concern


Simply put, there is just too many concerns with too much of the lineup. Surely the top looks great, but teams will just walk Vlad or Soto to get to the mediocrity below. So they'd likely be on the cusp of a wildcard, if the bottom of the lineup can figure something out. But economically I don't think having a top heavy lineup with that much payroll weight, makes any sense.

[browna]

The Jays can afford Soto if they want. Without question.

He has to want to come here, however, that's where it differs than Ohtani.
Soto has more reasons to want to come here, some of them are the same of Ohtani.

So, since Soto wants to get paid first and foremost, Jays will be in the mix in that regard, so as long as the media frame it like that, it's not clickbait. As soon as they say "he's genuinely interested in Toronto and the city and the country behind him etc", that's where the press gets sticky.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Yeah I think they need two good bats (with or without Soto). A batting order could look like this:

Bichette SS
Guerrero 1B/DH (or 3B)
Big Bat #1 LF/DH
Big Bat #2 DH
Springer RF
Kirk C
Horwitz/Wagner 2B
Clement/Barger 3B/OF
Varsho CF

The bottom of the order can hit but won’t scare too many people.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by ben voyonsdonc

Yeah I think they need two good bats (with or without Soto). A batting order could look like this:

Bichette SS
Guerrero 1B/DH (or 3B)
Big Bat #1 LF/DH
Big Bat #2 DH
Springer RF
Kirk C
Horwitz/Wagner 2B
Clement/Barger 3B/OF
Varsho CF

The bottom of the order can hit but won’t scare too many people.

2nd base I can live with being an experiment as most of mlb is in that situation. But 3B/OF with Clement/Barger just kills me. Clement isn’t an experiment anymore, and personally I think everyone looks at Barger as a physical talent more than what he’ll turn out to be. Which is why I think the Jays must look to trade Bo when he turns it around this year. It’s a great year for free agency but realistically we have too many holes, no prospects at the top end, and need to get some of it back. The most ideal scenario is you sign Vlad, and a higher end talent, but trade Bo this season to get more high end capital then start going for it more season after next. Atkins didn’t leave much choice but the above. At least that’s my thought. Bo’s return value is key though.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by bluejays

2nd base I can live with being an experiment as most of mlb is in that situation. But 3B/OF with Clement/Barger just kills me. Clement isn’t an experiment anymore, and personally I think everyone looks at Barger as a physical talent more than what he’ll turn out to be. Which is why I think the Jays must look to trade Bo when he turns it around this year. It’s a great year for free agency but realistically we have too many holes, no prospects at the top end, and need to get some of it back. The most ideal scenario is you sign Vlad, and a higher end talent, but trade Bo this season to get more high end capital then start going for it more season after next. Atkins didn’t leave much choice but the above. At least that’s my thought. Bo’s return value is key though.

I think after last season you're not getting much for 1 year of Bo.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I think after last season you're not getting much for 1 year of Bo.

Hard to say honestly. His position and his past production, combined with his age, to me would indicate he’s likely to bounce back. I think he’s a franchise player. In baseball bagging injuries are a caution though. Plus the one year left isn’t great. But given his position and past production you never know, especially if there may be a sign and trade in order.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by ben voyonsdonc

Yeah I think they need two good bats (with or without Soto). A batting order could look like this:

Bichette SS
Guerrero 1B/DH (or 3B)
Big Bat #1 LF/DH
Big Bat #2 DH
Springer RF
Kirk C
Horwitz/Wagner 2B
Clement/Barger 3B/OF
Varsho CF

The bottom of the order can hit but won’t scare too many people.

Will be interesting to see how the offseason progresses.

Other factor, I don't believe Varsho will be ready for the season opener due to his injury etc. (read that somewhere)

Not a fan of the 3rd base platoon, both guys are utility players.

From Springer to 9th spot, is a problem, not sure this team would have the offense to generte a wild card spot.

Need to add a 3rd,

[Inferno]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1856729240852476314

[ben voyonsdonc]

Originally Posted by bluejays

2nd base I can live with being an experiment as most of mlb is in that situation. But 3B/OF with Clement/Barger just kills me. Clement isn’t an experiment anymore, and personally I think everyone looks at Barger as a physical talent more than what he’ll turn out to be. Which is why I think the Jays must look to trade Bo when he turns it around this year. It’s a great year for free agency but realistically we have too many holes, no prospects at the top end, and need to get some of it back. The most ideal scenario is you sign Vlad, and a higher end talent, but trade Bo this season to get more high end capital then start going for it more season after next. Atkins didn’t leave much choice but the above. At least that’s my thought. Bo’s return value is key though.

With 2B, I think the Jays are hoping that Orelvis can make progress and come up at some point in the season. Third base really sucks but I’m not sure if a guy like Bregman is going to give you enough offensive production to allow the team to justify spending the dollars that it will require to attract him. Over the past few seasons, he’s been about a 115-120 WRC+ guy which is solid…if unspectacular…but he’s 31 and he’s projected to get $27ish mil per year for 6 years. The 3B market is brutal this year.

If they actually end up spending (as they should) this offseason, my money is on that they spend big on two bats - one for OF and one for 1B/DH. They can then try to get enough production from those bats + Guerrero + Bichette that they don’t have to spend on 3B. Instead they can rely on a combination of Barger/Clement/Guerrero at 3B.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by ben voyonsdonc

With 2B, I think the Jays are hoping that Orelvis can make progress and come up at some point in the season. Third base really sucks but I’m not sure if a guy like Bregman is going to give you enough offensive production to allow the team to justify spending the dollars that it will require to attract him. Over the past few seasons, he’s been about a 115-120 WRC+ guy which is solid…if unspectacular…but he’s 31 and he’s projected to get $27ish mil per year for 6 years. The 3B market is brutal this year.

If they actually end up spending (as they should) this offseason, my money is on that they spend big on two bats - one for OF and one for 1B/DH. They can then try to get enough production from those bats + Guerrero + Bichette that they don’t have to spend on 3B. Instead they can rely on a combination of Barger/Clement/Guerrero at 3B.

I’m with you on that they’ll spend money for OF and DH. Vlad at this point as a 3B could work to encourage him to stay fit. So to me moving him there for a few seasons would make sense then you could sign a power bat relatively cheap at 1st. But I really think the platoon positioning should die a horrible death. We know the players don’t like it. It’s a silly experiment that should be done. Let alone Barger/Clement being everyday guys. They should be bench experiments at best. Any idea when Orelvis’ suspension ends?

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Any idea when Orelvis’ suspension ends?

It's already over. It ended around game 156 for them.

[bluejays]

I also think with the recent seasons not going the way of the marquee free agents (aside from Ohtani), I’d guess that the dominoes start falling faster this year. Boras misjudged the market a few times now. To prevent a mutiny on his agency I could see him adjusting to make deals faster rather than waiting it out and settling for less for everyone not named Soto.

[SuperMatt18]

Soto, Tatis, and Vladdy were all buddies growing up weren't they...and IIRC when Soto was traded to the Padres he mentioned he dreamed of playing with Tatis and Vladdy in the major leagues.

I do wonder if that friendship is strong enough that Soto and Vladdy would want to play together.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Soto, Tatis, and Vladdy were all buddies growing up weren't they...and IIRC when Soto was traded to the Padres he mentioned he dreamed of playing with Tatis and Vladdy in the major leagues.

I do wonder if that friendship is strong enough that Soto and Vladdy would want to play together.

Yeah, they'll both be Mets after next year when Vladdy goes there to join Soto.

[Inferno]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1857568662405750878

[Roof-Daddy]

I read that the Mets initial offer to Soto was $660 million

The Jays apparently made their initial offer to him today, and it's said the offer was "impressive"

lol

Please just let him make a decision quickly, before people start monitoring flights to TO and sending grainy pictures of Soto in airport terminals.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Soto’s camp knows that the Jays need the deal done early and will use it to their advantage. The Jays will give their BAFO earliest and it will be leveraged with the New York teams.