2024 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[Roof-Daddy]

Good lord I can just imagine what will happen if the jays give vlad a contract like that. By June of year one he'll be pushing 300lbs and have to put up 200 wRC+ just to make up for his base running and defense.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Inferno

He's not taking less. He's getting paid less now (2 million/yr), the Dodgers are getting penalized as if they're paying him 46 million but he's getting 680 million after he retires until 2044.

So they are saving money right now even though they're getting penalized 44 million more a year than they're actually paying him. 2034 is when they have to start paying up when he's no longer playing for them but after 10 years they would have made so much money off of him that it would be a worthy investment.

But I highly doubt it will work out with the Blue Jays for Soto so it doesn't matter. Atkins just better have learned his lesson and not be stuck with his thumb up his ass again.

The Dodgers are getting penalized? I don't follow.

People need to stop talking/thinking about the Ohtani contract in future value terms. It's only the PV that really matters to luxury tax and in "valuing" the contract. I'm quite certain the contract requires that the team set aside the money into a secured investment to protect Ohtani from credit risk.

[browna]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Sounds like the media circus with Boras planting thoughts, has begun.

Got a Score alert that the Jays are definitely in it for Soto. Whether or not they are, I don't think the Jays management would get hopes up to their fanbase, so almost certainly they're not the ones leaking that info. Really sounds like Boras trying to force that upon the Jays to pony up their cash to not let their fanbase down.

Also there's a segment on TSN where Steve Philips thinks Vlad's contract is in the ballpark of $327 for 12 years. I have a problem with that term as nobody lives up to that, but the AAV truly isn't terrible. I don't think he's a generational talent as he believes. We don't know what he is as his numbers have been all over the map.

Does Vlad take a discount for Soto? Maybe.

I agree that it's likely Boras, planting some seeds, but he also knows his audience as far as the Jays (and their fans) desperation in some aspects, and the super deep pockets that Rogers has.

Boras also knows how to play (the always generic and vauge) guys like Shapiro and Atkins like a fiddle, PR wise.

Do the Jays want Soto? Yes. For more than one reason
Can they afford Soto, even an overpay? Yes.
So, Boras can capitalize on that for talks with the NY teams if Soto is truly going to go to the highest or near highest bidder.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

The Dodgers are getting penalized? I don't follow.

I'm talking about the luxury tax penalty. He gets paid 2 million a season while he plays but it's seen as 46 million because of how they've structured the deferral payments.

Maybe "penalized" isn't the right word to use but that's what I meant.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Inferno

I'm talking about the luxury tax penalty. He gets paid 2 million a season while he plays but it's seen as 46 million because of how they've structured the deferral payments.

Maybe "penalized" isn't the right word to use but that's what I meant.

I see. But I believe the contract requires the Dodgers to set that money aside into a secure investment, funding the future payout. So they are still paying money out today in today's dollars.

[Roof-Daddy]

Soto meeting with teams this week, Heyman is pumping the Jays as a real possibility now too. More clickbait if you ask me.

[Sylvanfan]

I wonder if Boras offered up anything to the Jays in exchange for using them as a surrogate to get teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Steven Cohen to cough up more money. Like does he sent Atkins and Shipiro a gift basket at Christmas.

[activeStick]

I'm trying to temper my hopes after what happened with Ohtani...

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Soto meeting with teams this week, Heyman is pumping the Jays as a real possibility now too. More clickbait if you ask me.

Surprised he's not going on about how it's not good for baseball because Jackie Robinson didn't play for the Blue Jays like he did last year.

[Jason14h]

Soto is weird to me for the Jays . I get Ohtani from a marketing perspective , but seems weird they are willing to pony 500-600 million up for a player who isn’t that marketable in Toronto ( IMO) when they aren’t 1 player away from contending

[SuperMatt18]

Yeah I think there is an argument the Jays would be much better investing that money across a couple places than going all in on Soto.

Ed Rogers is a bit of a mad man though and I bet he's pushing behind the scenes for a "big splash"

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by activeStick

I'm trying to temper my hopes after what happened with Ohtani...

Yeah... I (foolishly) allowed myself to believe last year with all the "on a place to Toronto" baloney. Not this time, until pen goes to paper AFAIK any "big free agent going to Toronto" junk is just some jackass agent toying with Blue Jay fans to extract more money from the Dodgers and Yankees.

Not to say the Blue Jays shouldn't try to sign the big fish if it's a fish that fits but now I want it to entirely be "Here's our first, last, and best offer... it's on the table for a week we're moving on after that". Anything else will have them settling for scraps because the rest of the market moved on while they pined away for a pipe dream and left empty-handed.

[ben voyonsdonc]

I was skeptical about Ohtani right up until the “he’s on a flight” tweet.

I’m skeptical on this too - I don’t think he’ll want to leave New York…let alone the country…unless he’s getting two Brinks trucks backed up. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense. The Jays will make a play and make it public so that it shows that they are trying to do something again and can fall back on the “we were in on him and made our best pitch” excuse. But I think it is largely PR for both sides. The problem for the Jays is that their fans have lost patience and faith in the front office and they can’t afford to swing and miss again.

[Roof-Daddy]

I just don't see any way that Rogers will outbid Cohen for Soto.

[Roof-Daddy]

Vlad cut his hair on June 19th, and from that point on he had a 200 wRC+ in 379 PA's

If you have a 7+ WAR Vlad and a 7+ WAR Soto and the rest of the team is merely passable, you have a playoff team and a shot at a WS title year in and year out for probably 5-6 years.

If you actually develop another couple star players to surround those two, then you have the Dodgers north.

Too bad it won't happen.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Soto is weird to me for the Jays . I get Ohtani from a marketing perspective , but seems weird they are willing to pony 500-600 million up for a player who isn’t that marketable in Toronto ( IMO) when they aren’t 1 player away from contending

I personally don’t get the marketing angle for anyone, including Ohtani, for the Jays. Especially over a long timeline. It’s crazy talk and odds are wouldn’t pan out over time. And yes, no matter who they sign, one player won’t make a substantial difference. They’re numerous players away from being champ contenders.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by bluejays

I personally don’t get the marketing angle for anyone, including Ohtani, for the Jays. Especially over a long timeline. It’s crazy talk and odds are wouldn’t pan out over time. And yes, no matter who they sign, one player won’t make a substantial difference. They’re numerous players away from being champ contenders.

I think it depends on what happens with Bo next year. If they keep him, do we think he can rebound to be the hitter he's been for most of his career.

If they have a strong rotation, a lineup that has Vladdy, Soto and a rebounding Bo, and an improved bull pen (always a hard to predict x-factor) you don't think they can compete?

[flamingred89]

Id obviously be stoked if the Jays somehow sign Soto because it's not my money. But I don't understand how Soto can be a 600 million dollar player and vladdy only 300. Soto is a terrible defender and will likely be a DH for most of that contract. Vladdy has his warts but they are more comparable than you'd think. Baseball is weird.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by flamingred89

Id obviously be stoked if the Jays somehow sign Soto because it's not my money. But I don't understand how Soto can be a 600 million dollar player and vladdy only 300. Soto is a terrible defender and will likely be a DH for most of that contract. Vladdy has his warts but they are more comparable than you'd think. Baseball is weird.

They are practically the same age have played a very similar amount of MLB games, Vladdy has 17 career fWAR, Soto has 36 career fWAR.

(Soto has 4000~ career PA's, Vladdy has 3500~ career PA's)

They're not really even in the same stratosphere

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by bluejays

I personally don’t get the marketing angle for anyone, including Ohtani, for the Jays. Especially over a long timeline. It’s crazy talk and odds are wouldn’t pan out over time. And yes, no matter who they sign, one player won’t make a substantial difference. They’re numerous players away from being champ contenders.

It's not a marketing angle though IMO - it's a Ed Rogers ego thing.

He wants to sign the premier free agent so he can say "We are up their with the Dodgers, Yankees, etc".

It's the same as the Mets.

The only difference is Rogers has to act like it has some reason because he's not sole owner of the team and has a bunch of shareholders he has to at least pretend like he cares about.