What good are nukes for Ukraine? Surely their red lines would be no more credible than Russia's. It's not like they could use them without Russia using theirs, and they're not going to win a nuclear war against Russia.
The only use cases I can see are: to bluff, and to secure a conventional victory by dissuading Russia from nuclear escalation. But I don't think there's a strategy where they can actually use them, which as Russia is finding out kind of makes them less useful than one might hope.
The military theory on nukes is mostly hypotheticals, but Ukraine has openly stated that in order to start peace talks, they want guarantees that Russia will not invade again later, and for Ukraine, nukes are a key part of that guarantee.
So basically, Ukraine openly wants nukes not so much for this war, but to prevent the next one.
Obviously, the threat of nukes could also be used to affect this war.
It could remove the incentive for Russia to attempt to fully conquer Ukraine ("we'll nuke Moscow and Leningrad if you try that"), but it can also be used to make more tactical threats, like "we'd rather nuke our own lands and your army than let you have our land", etc. No one knows at this point how Ukraine/Zelenskiy would use the threat of nukes, but in any case it would guve Ukraine a very significant new chip to play with.
(Also: nukes would give Putin something to be personally afraid of. He could die if Ukraine drops a nuke close enough.)
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If Ukraine having nukes was actually useful, I would hope Biden would just transfer some over.
Biden would never do it, but if Trump was who he says he is, I could see him doing it. And not just nukes, but ways to deliver them. (Long range missiles etc.)
It would actually at this point make a lot of sense. Protected by their own nukes, Ukraine could then promise Russia to not join NATO (something Putin wants as a way to save face), which could open a path for peace talks.
I'll repost this APN video on Ukrainian thinking over nukes.
Last edited by Itse; 11-11-2024 at 02:43 AM.
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What good are nukes for Ukraine? Surely their red lines would be no more credible than Russia's. It's not like they could use them without Russia using theirs, and they're not going to win a nuclear war against Russia.
The only use cases I can see are: to bluff, and to secure a conventional victory by dissuading Russia from nuclear escalation. But I don't think there's a strategy where they can actually use them, which as Russia is finding out kind of makes them less useful than one might hope.
If Trump turns off the supply taps for conventional weapons, and the enemy is advancing on all fronts because Ukraine can't defend itself, Kyiv would launch a nuke on Moscow in a last-ditch effort. And a threat of nuke might just be enough to prevent Moscow from advancing on all fronts in the first place.
The idea would be to bury them as close to the frontline as possible as a sort of super mine field I would guess
Yeah something like this would be a good guess. Bury them under a few logistics hubs, fall back, wait a couple of weeks for a buildup and set them off when the time is right. If they're buried deep enough, the fallout could be controlled while still effing things up for the invaders.
Of they could announce their membership in the nuclear club by a surprise underground test, to which Russia might respond with one of their own, if they still work.
Russian forces are launching huge counter offensive operations in the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces are destroying huge amounts of equipment and manpower https://twitter.com/user/status/1856299498466578869
The russians are destroying the entire infrastructure of Ukraine while Europe watches. The moment of the explosion at the Kurakhiv dam, the mass media publish.
Conscripts are increasingly being forced to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense; now — from the first days of service. Meanwhile, raids on conscripts have begun in Moscow, and they are being forcibly taken to the assembly point for the next meat grinder... https://twitter.com/user/status/1856714098798448691
As a result of an explosion in Sevastopol, the Chief of Staff of the 41st Brigade of Missile Ships and Boats of the Black Sea Fleet, Captain 1st Rank Valery Trankovsky died
Conscripts are increasingly being forced to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense; now — from the first days of service. Meanwhile, raids on conscripts have begun in Moscow, and they are being forcibly taken to the assembly point for the next meat grinder...
All these ordinary citizens with zero interest in fighting this war, but forced to do it anyways because a group of powerful men want it. I can't even imagine. I remember seeing a report a few months ago detailing the same situation in Ukraine and citizens hiding from their conscription agents looking on the street.
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All these ordinary citizens with zero interest in fighting this war, but forced to do it anyways because a group of powerful men want it. I can't even imagine. I remember seeing a report a few months ago detailing the same situation in Ukraine and citizens hiding from their conscription agents looking on the street.
Its like a grim, un-funny version of 'Stripes.'
People who are in the Army but really, really, don't want to be there.
This isn't Russia's War...this is Putin's War.
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All these ordinary citizens with zero interest in fighting this war, but forced to do it anyways because a group of powerful men want it. I can't even imagine. I remember seeing a report a few months ago detailing the same situation in Ukraine and citizens hiding from their conscription agents looking on the street.
No need to look back so far, it's all over Ukrainian socials on a day by day basis of men literally being shoved in vans and taken away. Saw a video last week of a guy getting shoved in a van screaming he had a child in his vehicle. The handlers didn't care, drove off and the video panned to a 2 year old boy in a car seat. No one knows what happened after that. So I would be wary mocking russians for doing this, when Ukraine does literally the same thing. War is ####ed.
The only solace I take in this is that the only way the war has a light at the end of the tunnel is when men from Moscow or SPB start getting shoved in vans and sent to the front. The smartest thing the kremlin has done is largely shelter those 2 cities from mobilization and stick to men from rural areas and other undesirables. Using NK soldiers also bought them some time.
No doubt putin will exhaust all available external resources before dipping into those 2 cities. However, once that happens we can finally say the war is closer to the end then the beginning. We might see russians who actually matter (in those 2 cities) start to push back when they realize their fate when the vans show up. Cruel to say, but it's good news for Ukraine when those 2 cities start getting their men plucked away.
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No need to look back so far, it's all over Ukrainian socials on a day by day basis of men literally being shoved in vans and taken away. Saw a video last week of a guy getting shoved in a van screaming he had a child in his vehicle. The handlers didn't care, drove off and the video panned to a 2 year old boy in a car seat. No one knows what happened after that. So I would be wary mocking russians for doing this, when Ukraine does literally the same thing. War is ####ed.
The only solace I take in this is that the only way the war has a light at the end of the tunnel is when men from Moscow or SPB start getting shoved in vans and sent to the front. The smartest thing the kremlin has done is largely shelter those 2 cities from mobilization and stick to men from rural areas and other undesirables. Using NK soldiers also bought them some time.
No doubt putin will exhaust all available external resources before dipping into those 2 cities. However, once that happens we can finally say the war is closer to the end then the beginning. We might see russians who actually matter (in those 2 cities) start to push back when they realize their fate when the vans show up. Cruel to say, but it's good news for Ukraine when those 2 cities start getting their men plucked away.
God damn, that is grim.
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No need to look back so far, it's all over Ukrainian socials on a day by day basis of men literally being shoved in vans and taken away. Saw a video last week of a guy getting shoved in a van screaming he had a child in his vehicle. The handlers didn't care, drove off and the video panned to a 2 year old boy in a car seat. No one knows what happened after that. So I would be wary mocking russians for doing this, when Ukraine does literally the same thing. War is ####ed.
Just to make sure: did you consider the possibility of the video being fake or not what it seems?
A big reason I steer away from that type of content is that there's a TON of fakes and mislabeled videos going around, and it's very hard for me tell what is what.
Just to make sure: did you consider the possibility of the video being fake or not what it seems?
A big reason I steer away from that type of content is that there's a TON of fakes and mislabeled videos going around, and it's very hard for me tell what is what.
A fake video is the first thing that goes through my head and I constantly mention this to my wife, who is aware of what to look for. Some things she notices is that she recognizes some locations the videos are taken (usually in the East), as well as the accents of the speakers. She says the UA uniforms the guys are wearing are accurate. In the videos that are mislabelled, she heard some russian accents that clearly were from the western part of russia so she knows those are russian videos re-labelled as Ukrainian. But some russian speaking accents she knows are closer to Dnipro or Donbas. Some videos are also clearly Ukrainian speakers, so she knows it's legit. There are quite a few chats on her Telegram channels that have the same event from multiple angles so confirms it's real.
Most of this happens in the eastern regions closer to the front lines. There was one video we saw that was in the centre of Kyiv, but she said it was mislabelled as a "kidnapping and sent to war" video, but really was the police arresting a wanted criminal.
It's not to say that some videos aren't actually filmed in russia and faked to be Ukrainian, but most Ukrainians know the regional RU accents right away and can tell it's mislabelled. If you speak to any Ukrainians refugees who are aware of these videos, they all know this happens in their country.
One of the things I find interesting is that much of the western world that supports Ukraine absolutely love Zelensky, yet a lot of Ukrainians want him ousted due to this policy of being able to pluck people off the streets. I know there is a lot of russian propaganda pushing that idea, but even some UA's in Calgary go off on the guy when you bring up his name. I have noticed that support for Zelensky is actually much higher outside of the country then it is internally, at least with the people I have spoken with here.
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A fake video is the first thing that goes through my head and I constantly mention this to my wife, who is aware of what to look for. Some things she notices is that she recognizes some locations the videos are taken (usually in the East), as well as the accents of the speakers. She says the UA uniforms the guys are wearing are accurate. In the videos that are mislabelled, she heard some russian accents that clearly were from the western part of russia so she knows those are russian videos re-labelled as Ukrainian. But some russian speaking accents she knows are closer to Dnipro or Donbas. Some videos are also clearly Ukrainian speakers, so she knows it's legit. There are quite a few chats on her Telegram channels that have the same event from multiple angles so confirms it's real.
Most of this happens in the eastern regions closer to the front lines. There was one video we saw that was in the centre of Kyiv, but she said it was mislabelled as a "kidnapping and sent to war" video, but really was the police arresting a wanted criminal.
It's not to say that some videos aren't actually filmed in russia and faked to be Ukrainian, but most Ukrainians know the regional RU accents right away and can tell it's mislabelled. If you speak to any Ukrainians refugees who are aware of these videos, they all know this happens in their country.
One of the things I find interesting is that much of the western world that supports Ukraine absolutely love Zelensky, yet a lot of Ukrainians want him ousted due to this policy of being able to pluck people off the streets. I know there is a lot of russian propaganda pushing that idea, but even some UA's in Calgary go off on the guy when you bring up his name. I have noticed that support for Zelensky is actually much higher outside of the country then it is internally, at least with the people I have spoken with here.
Your last paragraph is certainly interesting, but not surprising in some ways. If the mandate is to fight on and not surrender the east and Crimea, then very tough choices need to be made. That will piss off a lot of people.
Easy for us to cheer on the brave Ukrainians as they fight the enemy on our behalf. It's hard to picture oneself doing the actual fighting. I have small kids; it would probably take an enemy on my actual doorstep for me to leave them to go fight.
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Your last paragraph is certainly interesting, but not surprising in some ways. If the mandate is to fight on and not surrender the east and Crimea, then very tough choices need to be made. That will piss off a lot of people.
Easy for us to cheer on the brave Ukrainians as they fight the enemy on our behalf. It's hard to picture oneself doing the actual fighting. I have small kids; it would probably take an enemy on my actual doorstep for me to leave them to go fight.
Yup, the bolded part has been clear as day since the start of this invasion all over social media with people from the west who are miles away from the horror confidently and steadfastly stating "we" must continue the fight... "full stop". Real easy to send from our phones while sitting on our couch in North America watching the game when there's no risk of us getting pushed to the front lines and we don't have any relatives at risk of being summoned.
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“Bodies, bodies, bodies of our soldiers. They’re visible everywhere. As far as the eye can see — only the dead.” A Russian blogger shares a harrowing account of the battle for Volchansk https://twitter.com/user/status/1856986406830145962
Money is running out—Putin has reduced compensation for Russian soldiers injured in action.
Your last paragraph is certainly interesting, but not surprising in some ways. If the mandate is to fight on and not surrender the east and Crimea, then very tough choices need to be made. That will piss off a lot of people.
Easy for us to cheer on the brave Ukrainians as they fight the enemy on our behalf. It's hard to picture oneself doing the actual fighting. I have small kids; it would probably take an enemy on my actual doorstep for me to leave them to go fight.
Even for a war, this is definitely a bad one in a way the world hasn't seen since... Korean war? With high casualty rates, big prolonged artillery battles, trench warfare, and of course the new horror of drones. And it's been going on for years.
This is the kind of war that will inevitably leave deep, permanent scars even in those who aren't physically injured. You'd have to be a little stupid or crazy to not be terrified of getting drafted, no matter how much you believe in the righteousness of your cause.
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Yup, the bolded part has been clear as day since the start of this invasion all over social media with people from the west who are miles away from the horror confidently and steadfastly stating "we" must continue the fight... "full stop". Real easy to send from our phones while sitting on our couch in North America watching the game when there's no risk of us getting pushed to the front lines and we don't have any relatives at risk of being summoned.
True. But that's why it's asinine that the West is dithering on sending money and equipment. We should be sending everything because, at least for now, the Ukrainians are willing to fight.
All we have to do is send the means, and people don't even want to do that.
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True. But that's why it's asinine that the West is dithering on sending money and equipment. We should be sending everything because, at least for now, the Ukrainians are willing to fight.
All we have to do is send the means, and people don't even want to do that.
Only my opinion, but this was always the plan of the leaders in the west. There was zero intent on ever doing everything necessary for Ukraine and their brave people. Show support with words, provide just enough equipment and money (but not too much) to hold Russia back from completely overtaking too much Ukrainian territory. Continue this regardless the number of Ukrainian deaths, and suffering of their people until the public opinion begins to turn. Objectives are to fill the coffers of the elite in the game, while bleeding Russia as much and for as long as they can.
Only my opinion, but this was always the plan of the leaders in the west. There was zero intent on ever doing everything necessary for Ukraine and their brave people. Show support with words, provide just enough equipment and money (but not too much) to hold Russia back from completely overtaking too much Ukrainian territory. Continue this regardless the number of Ukrainian deaths, and suffering of their people until the public opinion begins to turn. Objectives are to fill the coffers of the elite in the game, while bleeding Russia as much and for as long as they can.
What was the plan from countries not in the west? What are they doing to help? Oh ya, aiding Russia and profiting from it.
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Only my opinion, but this was always the plan of the leaders in the west. There was zero intent on ever doing everything necessary for Ukraine and their brave people. Show support with words, provide just enough equipment and money (but not too much) to hold Russia back from completely overtaking too much Ukrainian territory. Continue this regardless the number of Ukrainian deaths, and suffering of their people until the public opinion begins to turn. Objectives are to fill the coffers of the elite in the game, while bleeding Russia as much and for as long as they can.
But that doesn't make sense. Why give anything at all then?
Giving Ukraine massive amounts of weapons and money will help them bleed Russia and it makes Western manufacturers tons of money.
