US Election Prediction Thread

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

that's usually not good for the incumbant

Depends why they're upset though. If someone doesn't like Roe v. Wade getting overturned, they're not going to be happy with the current situation but they're not exactly going to vote Trump.

And both CNN and NBC's exit polls have the state of democracy being the #1 issue for voters and abortion as #3. Together, about 50% of respondents identified one of those 2 issues as being most important to them. And while the economy was #2, the NBC exit poll shows Trump and Harris being basically equal in terms of who would handle the economy better (Trump is up by 4 points).


That said, exit polls in the US should always be taken with a big grain of salt.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

https://twitter.com/user/status/1853916839576817908

Here we go!

FA and FO

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

that's usually not good for the incumbant

They are angry about their rights being taken away and what elections have become since the Orange loser showed up.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Trump crying already, he knows hes done

Or he found out he’s going to win again

I truely believe he never wanted to be president the first time . He likes the spotlight but hates the work haha

[activeStick]

Lots of fun exit polls coming out... Who people trust more to handle immigration 53% Trump 46% Harris... Condition of Us economy 67% not so good or poor, 28% good, 5% excellent.... Opinion of Harris... Unfavorable 50%, favorable 48%

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Depends why they're upset though. If someone doesn't like Roe v. Wade getting overturned, they're not going to be happy with the current situation but they're not exactly going to vote Trump.

And both CNN and NBC's exit polls have the state of democracy being the #1 issue for voters and abortion as #3. Together, about 50% of respondents identified one of those 2 issues as being most important to them. And while the economy was #2, the NBC exit poll shows Trump and Harris being basically equal in terms of who would handle the economy better (Trump is up by 4 points).


That said, exit polls in the US should always be taken with a big grain of salt.

Yeah Trump needs to overwhelmingly win on the economy or he is done

[Ozy_Flame]

Sources on all of those numbers?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Cheese

Bouzy is always right!

I don’t mean to sound disrepectful, and he may well be right in this case, but who is Christopher Bouzy and why should his prognostications have more weight than anyone else’s? I’m not being difficult, it’s a sincere question: I don’t know who this person is.

[devo22]

don't think exit polls tell you anything tbh. With an electorate that divided, I don't see how you can take anything from some basic questions.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Lots of fun exit polls coming out... Who people trust more to handle economy 53% Trump 46% Harris... Condition of Us economy 67% not so good or poor, 28% good, 5% excellent.... Opinion of Harris... Unfavorable 50%, favorable 48%

Trump had a 14 point lead on the economy like 3 weeks ago when the race was supposedly tied. If it has actually closed that much she wins

[trackercowe]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Or he found out he’s going to win again

I truely believe he never wanted to be president the first time . He likes the spotlight but hates the work haha

I've always considered this as well. He's running again out of spite/vanity. Trump doesn't care about America or anyone, but himself. He should have been thrilled to have won the first time... why run three times? When was the last candidate to run more than twice?... was it Roosevelt? Trump needs to go, he's well past his best before date.

[octothorp]

Definitely don't put a lot into exit polls, but the one significant thing to me is 'protecting democracy' as the top issue for a plurality of people. This was also the case in Selzer's Iowa poll, and some poll-watchers latched onto that as being highly unlikely and a sign that her polling was probably wrong.

The Democrats have been pounding that message at the never-Trumpers and reluctant-Trumpers. If we're seeing this message actually resonate with that audience, then Democrats might be doing even better in the early/mail voting than the R/D return counts suggest.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Or he found out he’s going to win again

I truely believe he never wanted to be president the first time . He likes the spotlight but hates the work haha

that's not true. listen to the behind the secnes stuff, he campaigned like madman in 2016 and wanted to be president and stick it to everyone. He's a narcissist. He was going to run in 2012 but was contracted to the Apprentice. Sure he might hate the work but he LOVES being president and LOVES winning..

Originally Posted by trackercowe

I've always considered this as well. He's running again out of spite/vanity. Trump doesn't care about America or anyone, but himself. He should have been thrilled to have won the first time... why run three times? When was the last candidate to run more than twice?... was it Roosevelt? Trump needs to go, he's well past his best before date.

Revenge, he thinks he was robbed.

[MegaErtz]

Originally Posted by trackercowe

I've always considered this as well. He's running again out of spite/vanity. Trump doesn't care about America or anyone, but himself. He should have been thrilled to have won the first time... why run three times? When was the last candidate to run more than twice?... was it Roosevelt? Trump needs to go, he's well past his best before date.

Biden has run a bunch of times, but only won the nomination once. Nixon won the nomination three times - 1960, 1968, and 1972. He lost in 1960 to Kennedy but won in 1968 and won a landslide victory in 1972.

Reagan lost the nomination to Ford in 76 but won the presidency in 1980 and 94.

[devo22]

wait, so the loser who didn't accept the last election is crying foul before the first results even come out? Color me shocked. SHOCKED.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Biden has run a bunch of times, but only won the nomination once. Nixon won the nomination three times - 1960, 1968, and 1972. He lost in 1960 to Kennedy but won in 1968 and won a landslide victory in 1972.

Reagan lost the nomination to Ford in 76 but won the presidency in 1980 and 94.

Your fake books won't let me place bets on "underdog" Harris!

what gives

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Sources on all of those numbers?

I saw numbers on CNN just now that kinda match that. I think it's legit.

[dammage79]

They need voter turn out in the worst way, whether Trump wins or not. Last thing that country needs is a low voter turn out . Ppl need to get off their asses and vote one way or the other.

As a Canadian, I don't believe the vote matters as much, but in the U.S, it paints a

[dino7c]

Those numbers are good for Harris if you understand them...very good

Trump has an absolute ceiling and needed to make hay on the economy...if that isn't there he is LOSING bigly. He needs at least a double digit lead on the economy.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Beninho

Well not all are voting Trump but the majority. Most work in sectors that saw a bit of a boom during Trumps presidency. Such as real estate and in the tech industries. Most do not have kids, in their late 20’s and are worried about financial progression. These are people who are not very politically tapped in on every issue are very much voting solely for the economy. Most of these guys don’t own guns, care one way or the other about abortion, and could care less about wars in other countries. California is also huge and my group of friends is not a direct representation of the entire state lol. I grew up in a above middle class area in California so again not a direct representation.

Oh...so they're ######bag bros. Got it.