American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[burn_this_city]

Which village person is Trump going to cosplay today?

[Yamer]

Trump is entirely incompetent. He embodies the pure concept. The real danger is and always has been that Trump is a conduit to whatever dumb and dangerous ideas come from the people who line his pockets and kiss the ring.

[Coach]

So what happens with the burnt ballot boxes? Feel like that’s a skipped over thin. Do people who dropped in those boxes get a new ballot or what?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by calumniate

Last time Trump was president we were lucky he mostly wanted to go golfing all the time and deny that covid existed. I'm worried about this term because he can barely walk and won't be golfing all that much.

Almost wondering if Trump's serious bout with covid during his term has accelerated his decline

He's 78, has been a fat #### for a very long time, golf is his only exercise, and by all accounts his diet is extremely poor. If he didn't have the money he had he'd likely already be dead from poor health. So that his decline is so rapid is not a huge shock, and yeah COVID probably only made it worse for someone like him.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

I am going to be in the States on Jan 6 2025..........

A tiny part of my is concerned about it.

The place is really becoming a volatile #### hole.

One of my clients is out that way and actually right in the DC area. I'm actually hoping the stars align and I can find my way out there on that day. I am anticipating some crazy stuff to go down that day and I guess it's like watching an accident - I want to be there to witness it (from a safe distance!).

[puffnstuff]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Which village person is Trump going to cosplay today?

Which ones are left? And which of those is the most racist?

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by troutman

Are gambling sites going to pay out when Trump contests the election for months and months?

It's the perfect scam.... get all the money in, include in their terms and conditions some small print around how payouts change if the event is contested, etc. and then have the house keep all the money...

[dobbles]

I kind of want to go back to talking about Bob. And the reason I think its important, but also maybe useless is just how partisan one side can be when evaluating the economy. Pew research regularly polls Americans on how they feel about the economy. They include in their reports a breakdown by political party. I am going to link to a couple of articles one recent and one older to show that sentiment over time.

Notice that for the dem leaning sentiment, it is a decently stable sentiment and usually only sees major shifts around major events. It dropped a lot in the early 2000's after 9/11 and the wars started. It slowly built up through the teens and did dip some when Trump took office. More recently it took a dive during Covid and then recovered pretty nicely since.

Contrast that with the republican graphs. Incredibly high for all the Bush years. Immediately tanks when Obama takes office and stays that way. Immediately through the roof when Trump takes office. And then right back in the tank when Biden takes office.

Now combine that with another part of the earlier conversation about Presidents and their delayed impact on the economy. There was plenty of back and forth, but to me the evaluation is that it does indeed take time to have an impact and you have to look at the macro. Did the president improve the economy or hurt it? Were there outside factors that caused performance to change?

But yet only one half of America seems to take that rational approach. For half of Americans, the only deciding factor in how they feel seems to be, 'is a republican the president?'

Recent article: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics...ains-very-low/

Older article: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics...eply-partisan/

In both links the chart is right at the beginning to see it clearly.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Not sure where you are headed, but right now it's calm, quiet business as usual.

I'll be in DFW........so yeah open carry

But I ain't really scared or worried.

Like I said it is a tiny part of me.......

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Not sure where you are headed, but right now it's calm, quiet business as usual.

We are heading down after the election at the end of the week. I wouldn't be surprised if there were some smaller scale protests depending on the outcome but most likely it will be normal life.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Coach

So what happens with the burnt ballot boxes? Feel like that’s a skipped over thin. Do people who dropped in those boxes get a new ballot or what?

People in that district will have to validate their ballot was received and processed. If it was in that burned ballots it will not show up in the system as being processed and those individuals will have to request and cast an absentee ballot.

[Reggie Dunlop]

[KelVarnsen]

Don't insult Japanese curry like that

[Ozy_Flame]

I can't imagine baked orangutan tastes as good as Glico curry.

[puffnstuff]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

I thought he looked more like candy corn...or an Oompa Loompa

[Johnny Makarov]

He can always be a cheeto's mascot after loses. .... or wins.

[Senator Clay Davis]

You sometimes have to remind yourself we aren't in a simulation and that the frontrunner to be President actually wears orange makeup.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by GGG

Would you agree that final result in Pennsylvania will be within 3 points?

If so would a 52% - 38% Harris advantage in Pennsylvania early voting make you change your opinion on it. It’s still a very big spread that would lead one to make the same types of conclusions. Or put another way. What early voting advantage does Harris need in Pensylvania for it to suggest to you that she’s winning. I don’t think there is a basis to establish that number.

2020 with Trump suppressing early voting was 64-27-10 vs 57 - 33 - 10

Here’s all the data to play with

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v...-early-voting/

I agree with your assessment of the polling. Ultimately I don’t think you can get a general sense of who will win the 7 swing states with current data.

I'm using the 2020 final results as a baseline, then looking at the early vote to indicate which way the 2024 result might move from the 2020 result.

So in PA, with Biden winning by a point, and Harris up by a lot in the early vote, it would indicate that she'll win the state by more than Biden did. But then you look at the polls and they mostly say Trump will win the state by a small margin. So factoring all that together, I reach a prediction of a slim Harris win, in the neighborhood of Biden's result last time.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

So in PA, with Biden winning by a point, and Harris up by a lot in the early vote, it would indicate that she'll win the state by more than Biden did.

What's the logic there? The Democratic advantage in mail in voting in 2020 and 2022 was significantly higher than it will be this year. Obviously COVID played into that a lot, but what evidence is there that early votes in Pennsylvania imply her doing better than Biden?

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by opendoor

What's the logic there? The Democratic advantage in mail in voting in 2020 and 2022 was significantly higher than it will be this year. Obviously COVID played into that a lot, but what evidence is there that early votes in Pennsylvania imply her doing better than Biden?

That's just it - the Dem advantage in the mail-in & early vote that we saw in 2020 is not showing this time. So in light of that fact, a 58%-32% lead in the first 1.6 million votes is a good sign for Harris.