American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Yeah, a part of me continues to think Trump is still a lazy #### whose extreme mental decline in the last few months will have him just chilling at Mar-A-Lago playing golf as his brain further deteriorates into mush. And that while he talks a good fascist game, he's really just trying to squash his legal problems and that's really it, more than trying to create the fourth Reich. But that still leaves the rest of the GOP, who will be on the cusp of their Christian theocratic wet dreams becoming reality.

Of course, even if Harris does win, it's basically a temporary reprieve. America's long-term outlook will be grim either way.

Your right it will be Vance/Harris next time.

Pence was a wooden board, Vance Mr. “we can all do better” is the slimiest preening fake greaseball I have ever seen. Including Trudeau.

Only hope is that Vance isn’t Trump. Doesn’t really share his extremes, because you know Harris likely will not be a great re-electable president.

[Fuzz]

Vance is a ball of putty that can be molded by anyone that acknowledges his ego. he's probably more like Trump in that way than most people think.

During his time working in venture capital in San Francisco, Vance became a protégé of Peter Thiel, a PayPal co-founder who is considered something of a kingmaker in Silicon Valley. When Vance ran for Senate, Thiel fueled his run with a $15 million donation.
Vance also made inroads with David Sacks, a former tech executive and podcaster who has become a loud cheerleader for Musk since the billionaire acquired Twitter, now X. Sacks recently held a Trump fundraiser at his home in San Francisco, raking in $12 million for the former president. Sacks this week spoke at the Republican National Convention, where he spent much of his time bashing President Biden over the U.S. supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Using X as a megaphone, Musk and Sacks have been blasting out daily rallying cries for Trump and Vance. “Come on in,” Sacks wrote on X on Tuesday following a list of prominent tech figures now backing Trump. “The water’s warm.”

https://www.npr.org/2024/07/17/g-s1-...h-billionaires

There is a reason people don't really recognize him from the Vance of a few years ago.

Publicly, he called the Republican presidential candidate an "idiot" and said he was "reprehensible." Privately, he compared him to Adolf Hitler.

"I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical ####### like Nixon who wouldn't be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he's America's Hitler," he wrote privately to an associate on Facebook in 2016.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/jd-...es-2024-07-15/

See, back then he recognized exactly what Trump is. Once he had his ego massaged by the tech bros? Smoosh. Putty. He's as feckless as he is un-charismatic.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Yeah, a part of me continues to think Trump is still a lazy #### whose extreme mental decline in the last few months will have him just chilling at Mar-A-Lago playing golf as his brain further deteriorates into mush. And that while he talks a good fascist game, he's really just trying to squash his legal problems and that's really it, more than trying to create the fourth Reich. But that still leaves the rest of the GOP, who will be on the cusp of their Christian theocratic wet dreams becoming reality.

The thing is, it's not actually the GOP. It's not like, Marsha Blackburn and John Cornyn and Lindsay Graham who are going to be running the show in the White House. It's the alliance of uber-wealthy tech bros (the "Elon" MAGA wing) and the foaming-at-the-mouth-with-religious-fevor nutbars who were shouting about Jesus at the RNC who are going to be dictating that policy.

And they're true believers - either in creating the conditions to further expand their own wealth, or in making the USA as theocratic as they can manage - so it's arguably more concerning to have them calling the plays than Trump, albeit they're at least somewhat more predictable and less likely to think that nuking hurricanes is a good idea.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Only hope is that Vance isn’t Trump. Doesn’t really share his extremes,

Vance is much more extreme than Trump. Vance is all about Project 2025 and wants to implement that policy whole cloth. There is an interesting theory floating about that Trump is being used to win the election, then the Heritage Foundation will staff his team to get the P25 ball rolling. Once the various agencies have begun the purge, Vance and his loyalists (everyone from Heritage) will use the 25th amendment to have Trump removed from office and assume control of the country, guaranteeing a successful implementation of the Christian Nationalist agenda.

[Cappy]

This race is just so surprising to me. Truly, I do not understand how we are on the precipice of another potential Trump White House.

Ignore the fact that Trump is just a huge waste of skin.
Ignore the fact that he is blatantly corrupt to both business and foreign interests.
Ignore the fact that he fails to listen to experts and knowledge leaders.
Ignore the women's rights issues.
Ignore the immigration/deportation issues.
Ignore the religious kowtowing.
Ignore the environmental issues.

Ignore all those, you have the potential mind of a white suburban male voter, who's main issue in this election (like all elections) is "allegedly the economy. Let's call this voter Bob.

Bob is not a deplorable. He's not a Trumpist. He leans Republican at the best of times because its good for the economy (he tells himself). Bob does not work in Coal or Oil and Gas. He's got a good job. He's "middle class"

To vote for Trump over Harris, Bob has to further ignore:

- the record growth in the USA over the last 4 years of Biden/Harris
- the recent news of a potential soft economic landing
- Global inflation rates and the USA coming out as one of the better countries in this regard.

So no, bob is voting purely on future economic policy, which includes:

For Harris:
- Boosting the federal minimum wage;
- tax credits for parents;
- building more homes (we all know how these promises work)
- and small business loans.

Of course these are promises, but essentially a steady-as-she-goes approach to the last 30 years of US economic policy since Clinton.

For Trump:
- Mass deportations.
- Insanely high tariffs on all imports.
- tax breaks and giveaways (valued at approximately 8 billion).

Radical economic changes, 1930's style tariffs which most experts predict could have disastrous effects to the US economy, including increasing inflation and a further pronounced affordability crisis.

It should be noted that neither party seems to care, nor do anything about the rising deficit and debt obligations - a pretty standard complaint by white, male voters in every country.

So tell me how. How is a voter like Bob actually standing in the vestibule on election day truly making a rational decision to vote for Donald J. Trump.

I'll answer my own question. It's not rational. it's actually insane. there is no other reason.

There are voters that will vote for trump for a variety of reasons - even white men who feel they have been left behind for some reason. That's fine. that's a minority of voters.

But how does someone like Bob do it? How is this race THAT close.

[MarchHare]

The problem is in one of your initial premises when you said "Bob is not a deplorable."

He is.

In 2016, although all the signs were there and people really should have known better, I can kinda give a pass to (some of) the people who voted for Trump because they have traditional conservative values and didn't believe that Trump could possibly be that bad.

But in 2020 and especially in 2024 (after we know what happened on January 6, 2021), everyone who still supports Trump is a deplorable, full stop, no exceptions. If anyone is voting for Trump now, they are at best wildly ignorant and/or misinformed and at worst fully on-board with turning the USA into an authoritarian Christofascist theocracy. The past eight years have made it abundantly clear that there are WAY more racists, misogynists, and bigots in the United States than any of us assumed. They're not reluctantly voting for Trump as the lesser evil candidate; they're full-on embracing Trump because he's selling them a vision of the future they want.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

If Biden saying garbage is enough to swing it for the guy who said he needed generals like Hitler then Hitler man was gonna win anyway.

Yeah, it's funny how much of a different standard the Democrats are held to. It was obvious that Biden didn't articulate properly and anyone intelligent person knows he was talking about all the racists that support him and were at the rally. Yet Trump can call the other side vermin over and over again, and no one cares.

It also shows how MAGA supporters are bigger snowflakes if they are all up in arms about it.

[Duruss]

It's not about the economy when the plan is to crash it.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ka...-wins-20483008

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

At this point it seems clear to me that Trump is going to win. Look at the polls from 2020 in places like Michigan and PA compared with now. Trump tends to outperform polls. If he's in the margin he's winning.

Maybe the polls have somehow overcorrected but the same thing has happened in two straight presidential elections involving Trump, so I'm not optimistic.

[burn_this_city]

It's highly likely the polls have baked in a shy Trump factor after missing two cycles in a row.

Still think this election is won by the ground game, Democrats have a huge advantage in money and volunteers pounding the pavement in swing states. They hit their supposed 400k early vote firewall in PA.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Cappy

To vote for Trump over Harris, Bob has to further ignore:

- the record growth in the USA over the last 4 years of Biden/Harris
- the recent news of a potential soft economic landing
- Global inflation rates and the USA coming out as one of the better countries in this regard.

Bob doesn't know or doesn't believe those things, especially the third. He won't believe them coming out of Harris's mouth, he certainly doesn't believe it if a newspaper/CNN/MSNBC says it.

All he knows is prices were cheaper under Trump and expensive now. And every repeated comment in any article about anything being more expensive has 50 people thanking #FJBInflation.

It's impossible to get even a slightly nuanced message across any more.

Why are we so worried about losing democracy again? It seems we are moving towards a system for the most incompetent, outrageous person is going to win every time.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

At this point it seems clear to me that Trump is going to win. Look at the polls from 2020 in places like Michigan and PA compared with now. Trump tends to outperform polls. If he's in the margin he's winning.

Maybe the polls have somehow overcorrected but the same thing has happened in two straight presidential elections involving Trump, so I'm not optimistic.

They have tried to correct his polling

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

At this point it seems clear to me that Trump is going to win. Look at the polls from 2020 in places like Michigan and PA compared with now. Trump tends to outperform polls. If he's in the margin he's winning.

Maybe the polls have somehow overcorrected but the same thing has happened in two straight presidential elections involving Trump, so I'm not optimistic.

Trump is not winning. No chance in hell.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Arnold with a pretty long and accurate post/endorsement. He’s voting for Kamala.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1851627802027758005

[CroFlames]

You gotta love the Governator.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Trump is not winning. No chance in hell.

Trump has the best chance based on polling numbers. You would have to ignore all of the data out there to think he is not the clear leader at the moment and recognize that a large percentage of the United States population is dumb as a post and will let their social media guide their lives. Trump and his followers own social media right now, so they have a massive advantage there. For that reason I think Trump has the inside track to 270, with probably 302 being the final count.

Having said all of that, there could be some problems brewing for Trump that could dramatically shift the needle. Number one, Trump is already laying the groundwork for a challenge in Pennsylvania, so they must have some inside data that shows them trailing there and likely to lose. Number two, the Puerto Rican vote becomes important. Florida has a big population of Puerto Rican voters, as does Pennsylvania, which could swing this vote in close Florida and Pennsylvania races. We already know Pennsylvania is in play, but it appears that Florida may have just been dragged into the mix as a state up for grabs. If Florida and Pennsylvania fall off the Trump train, Harris will win unless she collapses in Wisconsin and Michigan.

That's a lot of things that have to fall in Harris' favor. It is possible, but I still think Trump is going win by an electoral college edge and lose ugly in popular vote.

[CroFlames]

Is it conceivable that this might be the election that flips TX? The abortion stuff, Trump being unlikeable, Ted Cruz being unlikeable, Trump sabotaging the border bill, etc.

Surely Texans have had enough?

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

At this point it seems clear to me that Trump is going to win. Look at the polls from 2020 in places like Michigan and PA compared with now. Trump tends to outperform polls. If he's in the margin he's winning.

Maybe the polls have somehow overcorrected but the same thing has happened in two straight presidential elections involving Trump, so I'm not optimistic.

The polls have clearly altered their methodology. The best evidence of that is that the disparity between mainstream pollsters (which significantly underestimated Trump) and right-wing pollsters (which tended to overestimate Trump) have narrowed significantly.

Take Pennsylvania for example. In 2020, the highest rated pollsters (e.g. NY Times/Siena, ABC, Monmouth, etc.) had Biden leading by 5-8 points while pollsters like Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage had Trump leading by 1-2 points. The end result was Biden winning by 1.8 points.

In 2024, those right-wing pollsters are only showing a very slight change compared to 2020, with Trump leading by 2-3 points. But now with those high-rated pollsters, instead of showing the race only shifting about a point in Trump's favor vs. their 2020 numbers (like the right-wing pollsters are showing) they're showing the race being effectively tied, which would be a 5-8 point move in Trump's favor compared to 2020.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Is it conceivable that this might be the election that flips TX? The abortion stuff, Trump being unlikeable, Ted Cruz being unlikeable, Trump sabotaging the border bill, etc.

Surely Texans have had enough?

Why dream if not to dream of extremely unlikely scenarios?

[Erick Estrada]

I can't argue with much of what Arnold said. Sad state of affairs for sure.