The Puerto Rico stuff is intentional and a distraction.
People (except for Jon Stewart it seems) are all talking about what the comedian said instead of focusing on what TRUMP said. Stewart nails it, the invocation of the Alien Enemies Act is the most troubling thing. This starts with immigrants, but it will quickly expand to include other "undesirables" that Stephen Miller wants to get rid of.
I can't put it any better than how Jon Stewart did last night.
The only thing that seems to have backfired is that this is engaging Puerto Rican's and maybe, just maybe, other ethnic minorities WHO ARE US CITIZENS are coming to terms with: oh ####.. he wants a white ethno-state, maybe I'm not safe.
I think a majority of illegal immigrants are people who have overstayed their visa (like Watermelon Husk actually). But it's definitely portrayed as migrants (meaning brown people).
God help the US if they elect him. It's going to be a disaster.
Stephen Miller was full on fascist with his “America is for Americans only” talk. He’s pulling Trumps strings to get those icky brown people out of the country.
If Trump wins, can we just merge California/Oregon/Washington/Colorado/New York/Massachusetts/Connecticut with Canada? Win-win - we get the best of the US, and the deplorables in those red states can have their own country to self-destroy and smell their farts in.
I'm fine with this plan, just give me some time to buy as many properties as I can in Port Roberts WA.
Stephen Miller was full on fascist with his “America is for Americans only” talk. He’s pulling Trumps strings to get those icky brown people out of the country.
This is all Stephen Miller and his ilk. These aren't really Trump's ideas and you can tell because he's clearly reading from the teleprompter whenever he tilts his head to the side a bit and stares at it in a hypnotic droning voice. That's Miller using Trump as a puppet. Trump himself is actually just a crazy old man who has lost his marbles. He won't last more than a year before he's put out to pasture by his controllers and Vance takes his place.
Then the real #### hits the fan.
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For real you’re gonna say that’s not what Trump really believes. Whatever you say boss should we pretend that exact line of thinking isn’t how this crap got mainstreamed and sanitized to begin with?
For real you’re gonna say that’s not what Trump really believes. Whatever you say boss should we pretend that exact line of thinking isn’t how this crap got mainstreamed and sanitized to begin with?
Not what he really believes. FOH man lol
No, what I'm saying is that there isn't a coherent thought in Trumps head anymore. He's completely gone. He definitely DOES think like this when he's lucid, but this is all Miller. Trump has no idea what that law is, as Stewart said.
The rot is so bad in the GOP. It's bigger than Trump, he's just the big fat racist dick being rubbed in all the liberals faces, that's my point.
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No, what I'm saying is that there isn't a coherent thought in Trumps head anymore. He's completely gone. He definitely DOES think like this when he's lucid, but this is all Miller. Trump has no idea what that law is, as Stewart said.
The rot is so bad in the GOP. It's bigger than Trump, he's just the big fat racist dick being rubbed in all the liberals faces, that's my point.
The GOP needs to be obliterated and rebuilt by the adults that are currently sitting on the sidelines......
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I never said it was. But I do put a lot more stock in these numbers than betting markets flooded with dumb money.
Some potential warning signs for Harris: 6.2 million people have voted in Texas, where Rs lead by a margin of 52% to 37%. In Florida, 5.1 million votes have been cast, and Rs lead 45% to 34%.
That said, Harris has significant leads in the blue wall states. I have no idea how this is all going to shake out, but my heart is in my mouth.
Texas and Florida are not in play.
I think what you’re not looking at is that early voters are not representative of the general electorate. Dems win early voting since it’s far more urban. Since there seems to be some indication that early voting is skewing more Republican than previous elections, that is a troubling sign for Dems. Or it may mean nothing and just a trend within each voting group.
I never said it was. But I do put a lot more stock in these numbers than betting markets flooded with dumb money.
Some potential warning signs for Harris: 6.2 million people have voted in Texas, where Rs lead by a margin of 52% to 37%. In Florida, 5.1 million votes have been cast, and Rs lead 45% to 34%.
That said, Harris has significant leads in the blue wall states. I have no idea how this is all going to shake out, but my heart is in my mouth.
It's interesting data. The explainer on NBC's site was saying young people / less experienced folks early vote closer to the election. Young folks lean blue team.
With that said early voting is only 30% of the vote, and more strong red team voters vote on the day. As an aside is there a better example out there of conservative thinking than standing in an enormous line on the day, because that's the way you've always done it. Haha. Oh and they'll be mad about the queues. Addicted to the outrage.
Early voting is so new in these numbers its hard to find patterns. It feels like it'll be super close.
I never said they were. I'm just saying that if Trump is winning those states by 10-15 points, it could be a bad sign of what's to come in the country as a whole.
Quote:
I think what you’re not looking at is that early voters are not representative of the general electorate. Dems win early voting since it’s far more urban. Since there seems to be some indication that early voting is skewing more Republican than previous elections, that is a troubling sign for Dems. Or it may mean nothing and just a trend within each voting group.
Well aware of this. But this election cycle is different from 2020. In 2020, Trump told his supporters not to vote by mail and not to vote early. This time around, he's encouraging all voting methods. That's why this year's early vote is much more likely to be somewhat in line with the final election results than any early vote in the past.
And look at the share of the votes that have been cast thus far: Democrats have a 2 point lead. That's more or less in line with what the final popular vote is likely to be.
So, while it's still not a reliable predictor, it's much more reliable than partisan polls or silly betting odds.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rutuu
With that said early voting is only 30% of the vote.
It's likely to be much higher this time. For example, there were 11.2M votes cast in Texas last time. There are already 6.2M cast this time!
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This is all Stephen Miller and his ilk. These aren't really Trump's ideas and you can tell because he's clearly reading from the teleprompter whenever he tilts his head to the side a bit and stares at it in a hypnotic droning voice. That's Miller using Trump as a puppet. Trump himself is actually just a crazy old man who has lost his marbles. He won't last more than a year before he's put out to pasture by his controllers and Vance takes his place.
Then the real #### hits the fan.
The one potential saving grace of a Trump presidency is his own incompetence. People can manipulate him through praise but he still does things his way. The project 2025 guys directly holding power is far scarier.
So I do think there is a window where Trumps lack of stamina prevents significant change and his inability hold on to power by going senile ensures the next election is carried out on fairish terms.
Trumps death or incapacitation in office is the worst case outcome.
I never said they were. I'm just saying that if Trump is winning those states by 10-15 points, it could be a bad sign of what's to come in the country as a whole.
Well aware of this. But this election cycle is different from 2020. In 2020, Trump told his supporters not to vote by mail and not to vote early. This time around, he's encouraging all voting methods. That's why this year's early vote is much more likely to be somewhat in line with the final election results than any early vote in the past.
And look at the share of the votes that have been cast thus far: Democrats have a 2 point lead. That's more or less in line with what the final popular vote is likely to be.
So, while it's still not a reliable predictor, it's much more reliable than partisan polls or silly betting odds.
It's likely to be much higher this time. For example, there were 11.2M votes cast in Texas last time. There are already 6.2M cast this time!
Dem by two is somewhere between a 66% chance of a Trump victory and a coin flip which is exactly what the betting markets and polls are predicting.
Dem by two is somewhere between a 66% chance of a Trump victory and a coin flip which is exactly what the betting markets and polls are predicting.
There's oceans of difference between 66% chance of a Trump victory and a coin flip.
If you look at RealClearPolling, it is flooded with right-wing partisan polls and is therefore predicting a Trump win. The betting odds are, well, betting odds.
I think more can be read from the early voting data than polls or betting odds.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
The one potential saving grace of a Trump presidency is his own incompetence. People can manipulate him through praise but he still does things his way. The project 2025 guys directly holding power is far scarier.
So I do think there is a window where Trumps lack of stamina prevents significant change and his inability hold on to power by going senile ensures the next election is carried out on fairish terms.
Trumps death or incapacitation in office is the worst case outcome.
Trump is not making it through a 4 year term. If he wins, a Project 2025 ghoul (be it Vance or someone else) is taking over at some point.
There's oceans of difference between 66% chance of a Trump victory and a coin flip.
If you look at RealClearPolling, it is flooded with right-wing partisan polls and is therefore predicting a Trump win. The betting odds are, well, betting odds.
I think more can be read from the early voting data than polls or betting odds.
The problem with reading too much into the early voting is that the rules in states for early voting change constantly, and COVID kept moving early/mail in voting to be more the norm.
The electoral map shifted a lot with Trump's 2016 win, shifted again in 2020 and will shift again with Harris as a candidate.
A Harris +2 nationally might not play out the same as a Hillary or Biden +2 in the electoral college.
