If Trump wins, can we just merge California/Oregon/Washington/Colorado/New York/Massachusetts/Connecticut with Canada? Win-win - we get the best of the US, and the deplorables in those red states can have their own country to self-destroy and smell their farts in.
It's all separated by rural/urban, way more than it is by states. The red states are just the ones with larger rural population.
It generally doesn't matter if it is the bluest state or reddest stated, you can see it change as you leave the cities.
Cities will be 80+% Harris signs, near suburbs with will be 60/40 Harris, the semi-rural suburbs will be 80% Trump, and the rural areas will be 100% Trump signs/liberals go-home/confederate flags/Jesus Billboards until you hit a college town and it will be back to 90% Harris.
That's not a whole lot different than I remember Alberta/BC being either.
It's all separated by rural/urban, way more than it is by states. The red states are just the ones with larger rural population.
It generally doesn't matter if it is the bluest state or reddest stated, you can see it change as you leave the cities.
Cities will be 80+% Harris signs, near suburbs with will be 60/40 Harris, the semi-rural suburbs will be 80% Trump, and the rural areas will be 100% Trump signs/liberals go-home/confederate flags/Jesus Billboards until you hit a college town and it will be back to 90% Harris.
That's not a whole lot different than I remember Alberta/BC being either.
Since my post was just comedic in nature... point STILL STANDS. Merge them blue states with the Great White North and let's get co-promoting our hockey, our maple syrup and our non-MAGA paradise!
The Puerto Rico joke "controversy" is pretty hilarious. The candidate himself has actually said much much worse things, and did so again at the same rally, but what the comedian said is the last straw?
The Puerto Rico joke "controversy" is pretty hilarious. The candidate himself has actually said much much worse things, and did so again at the same rally, but what the comedian said is the last straw?
It drew the ire of Bad Bunny, JLo, Ricky Martin, Marc Anthony, etc. Hence why it's getting more attention. And apparently the Trump campaign vetted all the speeches before the event, and the garbage comment made it through the vetting process...
Nevada is not really in play, Trump is -193 there, Harris +158. Jon Ralston is worth a follow on Twitter, he figures the Republicans are ahead by about 38,000 votes in Nevada right now, and he's never wrong.
You’re relying too much on a single source IMO. A few analysts have Nevada as the hardest state to predict right now. It’s just not likely to be the tipping point for either side.
It drew the ire of Bad Bunny, JLo, Ricky Martin, Marc Anthony, etc. Hence why it's getting more attention. And apparently the Trump campaign vetted all the speeches before the event, and the garbage comment made it through the vetting process...
Things looking good in the blue wall, and pretty much a dead heat in NC. The rest of the sunbelt states are longer shots, unfortunately.
Winning the raw early vote is not a predictor of winning the election. In fact it appears that Republicans are voting earlier in greater numbers than four years ago and the Dems less.
I think the hilarious thing about Polymarket is that if you already have money in crypto, there are way better ways to get bigger gains than locking in cash on presidential bets.
That said, the real money is in betting on a Kamala popular vote win, that's basically getting a dollar for 57 cents.
There's no particular need to have money in crypto to take a position on the election - there are stock brokerage firms that offer it as a futures contract now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach
Kind of a weird sentiment. If you believe in something you should put money on it? Why? Just because you can?
I guess it depends how you're using the word "believe". If it's "I hope this thing happens and I think it might" then I agree with you.
If it's "I am confident in this thing happening and I believe the market-supplied odds are wrong" then, yes, I do think you should bet on it. For one thing if you can consistently make positive expected value bets you'll end up making a bunch of money, which is nice. But in this specific situation as well I think the market having "real" odds has a societal benefit.
Anyway, I definitely wouldn't use polymarket if I wanted to bet on this. But the odds from all the different providers should end up converging because of arbitrage. They might not get to be exactly the same because of differences in the contracts/payment mechanisms, but I think they should end up close.
It drew the ire of Bad Bunny, JLo, Ricky Martin, Marc Anthony, etc. Hence why it's getting more attention. And apparently the Trump campaign vetted all the speeches before the event, and the garbage comment made it through the vetting process...
Things looking good in the blue wall, and pretty much a dead heat in NC. The rest of the sunbelt states are longer shots, unfortunately.
Sure but why is it the comedian that draws the ire and not the guy running the show? Like I think the comedian's a dweeb, but the other guy is a candidate for president. Focusing on the comedian just gives an out for "cancel culture" or whatever.
Sure but why is it the comedian that draws the ire and not the guy running the show? Like I think the comedian's a dweeb, but the other guy is a candidate for president. Focusing on the comedian just gives an out for "cancel culture" or whatever.
If you’re speaking rhetorically let me know because I don’t want to speak down to you if you already understand this. If by chance you’ve been paying attention for the past decade you’ll know Trump is bulletproof. Everything he says is hand waved away with one excuse or another. This has been shown so often the “let’s see old Donnie wriggle his way out of this one *easily wriggles out* ah well nevertheless” is an evergreen law of politics now.
When one of his acolytes, or guests, or openers, say the quiet part out loud the media is allowed to go after them because those people are not afforded the same protections Trump is.
So the guy who says “I need generals like Hitler had” gets a pass but when one of his dumb dumbs drops the mask a brief window of opportunity opens to hold the feet of those reprehensible views to the proverbial fire.
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If you’re speaking rhetorically let me know because I don’t want to speak down to you if you already understand this. If by chance you’ve been paying attention for the past decade you’ll know Trump is bulletproof. Everything he says is hand waved away with one excuse or another. This has been shown so often the “let’s see old Donnie wriggle his way out of this one *easily wriggles out* ah well nevertheless” is an evergreen law of politics now.
When one of his acolytes, or guests, or openers, say the quiet part out loud the media is allowed to go after them because those people are not afforded the same protections Trump is.
So the guy who says “I need generals like Hitler had” gets a pass but when one of his dumb dumbs drops the mask a brief window of opportunity to hold the feet of those reprehensible views to the proverbial fire.
Yeah but that's why I find it funny that NOW people are apparently mad? Like "Oh this is causing a big swing latinos!" Why does/can/would this when nothing else, including giving zero help to the island after it was wiped out by a hurricane, why would this stupid comment by this stupid person that's not even their candidate matter?
I promise you was more registered Republicans are going Harris than the other way around. Also new voters and independents will favor Harris. If they get the vote out they will win.
I agree with Jon Stewart's take that basically, bringing a comedian to the event, knowing comedians make jokes that are often edgy was a bad idea. Best case, he makes everyone laugh, worst case he says something controversial and potentially costs you votes. Dumb dumb move by the Trump campaign. The debate has come up before on whether or not comedians should have limits when performing a set and I'm on the side that they shouldn't. They tell jokes, sometimes their jokes offend people, but it's all part of what they do.
In related news, Stewart and The Daily Show has agreed for him to return to the show for another season, part time.
It drew the ire of Bad Bunny, JLo, Ricky Martin, Marc Anthony, etc. Hence why it's getting more attention. And apparently the Trump campaign vetted all the speeches before the event, and the garbage comment made it through the vetting process...
Things looking good in the blue wall, and pretty much a dead heat in NC. The rest of the sunbelt states are longer shots, unfortunately.
A couple of days ago I was reading that women are so far outnumbering men in Georgia early voting, something like 55-45%, which likely favours Harris. I’ll try and find the article later and post it. Hopefully this is a trend that continues in the other swing states.
I promise you was more registered Republicans are going Harris than the other way around. Also new voters and independents will favor Harris. If they get the vote out they will win.
I've also wondered, are there more registered Republicans who are not all outwardly rah rah MAGA, who will quietly vote Trump or are there more of this same group who will quietly vote Harris?
Winning the raw early vote is not a predictor of winning the election. In fact it appears that Republicans are voting earlier in greater numbers than four years ago and the Dems less.
I never said it was. But I do put a lot more stock in these numbers than betting markets flooded with dumb money.
Some potential warning signs for Harris: 6.2 million people have voted in Texas, where Rs lead by a margin of 52% to 37%. In Florida, 5.1 million votes have been cast, and Rs lead 45% to 34%.
That said, Harris has significant leads in the blue wall states. I have no idea how this is all going to shake out, but my heart is in my mouth.
Last election republicans were told not to vote early and this election there is a push for them to do so...I wouldnt be to concerned on comparing them to 2020. Trump has an absolute ceiling, his early votes canabalize his election day where Harris has more voters that just arent as fanatical. Shorter lines on election day favours dems.
The Puerto Rico stuff is intentional and a distraction.
People (except for Jon Stewart it seems) are all talking about what the comedian said instead of focusing on what TRUMP said. Stewart nails it, the invocation of the Alien Enemies Act is the most troubling thing. This starts with immigrants, but it will quickly expand to include other "undesirables" that Stephen Miller wants to get rid of.
I can't put it any better than how Jon Stewart did last night.
The only thing that seems to have backfired is that this is engaging Puerto Rican's and maybe, just maybe, other ethnic minorities WHO ARE US CITIZENS are coming to terms with: oh ####.. he wants a white ethno-state, maybe I'm not safe.
I think a majority of illegal immigrants are people who have overstayed their visa (like Watermelon Husk actually). But it's definitely portrayed as migrants (meaning brown people).
God help the US if they elect him. It's going to be a disaster.
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