American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[MegaErtz]

The sharp money has certainly moved towards Trump, especially in the last two weeks. For this to go back to a coin toss by Tuesday night, something major would have to shift in the race. Harris is drifting further and further away from victory, just like Biden did back in the summer.

What's even more concerning is the bloodbath the Democrats are facing in the Senate. Tester is toast for sure in Montana, and Brown is very likely to lose in Ohio.

[Mathgod]

The betting odds had it at near certainty that Beyonce would perform at the DNC. Right up to the final minutes of the 4th night.

Betting odds, especially in situations like this, should not be considered a reliable predictor.

DJT stock has soared in value over the past couple of weeks. Same reason why the betting odds are so skewed. Over-confident Trump supporters flooding the markets with their money. They've taken far too seriously the results of unreliable partisan right-wing pollsters.

Trump may win, and yes he's probably the slight favorite. But these betting odds we're seeing are very skewed. Any talk of it being a near-certainty for Trump is nonsense.

[MegaErtz]

This is where I think people are wrong to dismiss the prediction markets. Look at the amount of money that shape the odds. For Beyonce to appear at the DNC, you're talking a few thousand dollars. For the current odds on the outcome of the presidential election, we're talking literally billions. Yes, the odds (and polls) were way off in 2016, and Harris isn't so far behind that she can't come back to win. However, she's down 3-0 after two periods in my view. Very few teams come back to win from that.

[dino7c]

I took Trumpers money last time when Biden for the popular vote odds were WAY higher than they should have been.

There is no sharp money here

[GGG]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

The issue here is that Harris' only path to victory is by winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. A week ago all three were coin flips, but she needed to win all three.

Tonight in Michigan:
Trump -107, Harris -113

Pennsylvania
Trump -153, Harris +126

Wisconsin
Trump -131, Harris +108

Trump is definitely going to win in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. The Liberals in Canada have a better chance of sweeping Calgary in the next federal election than Harris has of winning Florida or Texas next week.

Remember these aren’t independent events. If most scenarios she either wins all 3 or loses all 3. It’s why the election odds are fairly close.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

This is where I think people are wrong to dismiss the prediction markets. Look at the amount of money that shape the odds. For Beyonce to appear at the DNC, you're talking a few thousand dollars. For the current odds on the outcome of the presidential election, we're talking literally billions. Yes, the odds (and polls) were way off in 2016, and Harris isn't so far behind that she can't come back to win. However, she's down 3-0 after two periods in my view. Very few teams come back to win from that.

Yes, billions, as is to be expected. Trump's policies favor the ultra rich. Besides, Polymarket takes money from outside the US.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

This is where I think people are wrong to dismiss the prediction markets. Look at the amount of money that shape the odds. For Beyonce to appear at the DNC, you're talking a few thousand dollars. For the current odds on the outcome of the presidential election, we're talking literally billions. Yes, the odds (and polls) were way off in 2016, and Harris isn't so far behind that she can't come back to win. However, she's down 3-0 after two periods in my view. Very few teams come back to win from that.

Your view is wrong...even republican biased polls are closer than that

Gambling money from primarily non american white men is not a realistic snapshot of the election. These people buy his bibles, his hats, his shirts, watches, gold shoes, ect. Its literally a cult of course they are flooding their money in. These people still think he won 2020.

[BigThief]

After the gambling odds can we discuss vacation photos.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

This is where I think people are wrong to dismiss the prediction markets. Look at the amount of money that shape the odds. For Beyonce to appear at the DNC, you're talking a few thousand dollars. For the current odds on the outcome of the presidential election, we're talking literally billions. Yes, the odds (and polls) were way off in 2016, and Harris isn't so far behind that she can't come back to win. However, she's down 3-0 after two periods in my view. Very few teams come back to win from that.

So the prediction markets have it 35/65. Or about the odds that the team who scores first wins the hockey game.

Why are you comparing it to being down 3-0 after two periods which has a 2% chance of winning.

https://www.tsn.ca/the-rarity-of-the...eback-1.412950

[chemgear]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1850922831548420439

[Mathgod]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

54/46 Trump sounds more like it. 65/35 just isn't an accurate reflection of the race.

[Sylvanfan]

That MSG nutiness might be Trumps 2024 version of Hillary holding a fancy star studded elites gala in Philly with Springsteen and thinking she has it in the bag. It will be a fascinating last 7 days here. The Trump side is definitely doubling down on the Populist ideals as their way of bringing it home. Do enough people come off the center to go that far? I am starting to think it's more possible than say a month ago.

[MegaErtz]

Originally Posted by GGG

Remember these aren’t independent events. If most scenarios she either wins all 3 or loses all 3. It’s why the election odds are fairly close.

This is my exact point. It is extremely unlikely that all three go her way. Instead of calling three coin flips in a row, we're talking between four and five at her current odds.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

This is my exact point. It is extremely unlikely that all three go her way. Instead of calling three coin flips in a row, we're talking between four and five at her current odds.

No, that's not how dependent events work. They are likely to vote similar to each other. Therefore it's closer to 1 coinflip than 3.

[MegaErtz]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

54/46 Trump sounds more like it. 65/35 just isn't an accurate reflection of the race.

Man, I really really hope you are right. I've been following the prediction markets since the 2002 mid-terms and 2016 aside, they are extremely accurate, much more so than the polls the media seem to run with every time.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Man, I really really hope you are right. I've been following the prediction markets since the 2002 mid-terms and 2016 aside, they are extremely accurate, much more so than the polls the media seem to run with every time.

you must have skipped 2022

[MegaErtz]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

No, that's not how dependent events work. They are likely to vote similar to each other. Therefore it's closer to 1 coinflip than 3.

I don't see things breaking her way here at all. Trump has a massive lead in all of the swing states bar Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There is no room for error for Harris.

Trump wins BOTH Michigan and Pennsylvania?
Yes +127
No -159

Trump wins BOTH Michigan and Wisconsin?
Yes +155
No -195

It is very unlikely that either candidate sweeps all three. Far more likely is that Harris wins Michigan but loses one of the other two, meaning Trump wins the election.

[MegaErtz]

Originally Posted by dino7c

you must have skipped 2022

Prediction markets were bang on in 2022, which is why I trust them far more than the polls the media were pushing that showed a huge Republican win.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Prediction markets were bang on in 2022, which is why I trust them far more than the polls the media were pushing that showed a huge Republican win.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgec...midterm-exams/

"In the 2022 midterm elections, all the prediction markets failed spectacularly. Right up to the night of the election, they projected outcomes for key races that turned out to be completely wrong."

If you don't understand the betting markets are being pumped up by Trumpers I don't know what to tell you...its not even debatable

[MegaErtz]

Again, I haven't mentioned polymarket once. Go back and find the Pinnacle odds on the mid-terms.