American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1850414949991846331

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by cral12

Saw a few similar tweets as this couple days back but seemingly no updates...

Not that I'm that optimistic that something will come out to truly change the narrative...

https://twitter.com/user/status/1849801585712419326

We've already heard the rumours that he groped a minor, and we also know it's more likely such a story gives him a poll bump than it costs him votes.

[direwolf]

Nothing will change the mind of a Trump supporter. They're a lost cause. It's been said many times here, but the dude could murder a child live on stage at one of his rallies and the MAGA cult would still vote for him.

[Paulie Walnuts]

The rumour is the story is not the groping but the shooting was staged.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Also won't matter.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

The rumour is the story is not the groping but the shooting was staged.

The first one or the second one? The first one I don’t see it.

[Coach]

Yeah it's weird. I think hammering on small issues of how he never pays his employees and lobbies for no OT and cutbacks etc... is stuff the news should be more focused on than whether or not he's a threat to democracy, sex offender or staging an assassination attempt. The former are things that people actually have happen to them and can understand and relate to. Things like being a sex offender is what they think all people at his level do, and cries about his facsism or thing he lies about people just assume the news makes up because its so out there.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by GGG

The first one or the second one? The first one I don’t see it.

The first one in Butler.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Panic mode for the Harris campaign. She's up to +170 in the betting markets, which carries an implied probability of 37%.

I don’t think they would be in anymore of a panic then last week. Polling moved about 10 days ago but stabilized. The betting markets have only moved 1 or 2% over the last week. The models all are in and around 50/50. This 65/35 move on the betting markets isn’t really that different then the move from 55/45 Harris to 50/50. If you consider the betting markets like a biased poll they are roughly the same as Rasmussen.

This election is not predicable at this point. It’s also much more likely Harris campaign is just focused on GOTV efforts as there is nothing you can do or change at this point a week out.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

The first one in Butler.

How would that be staged? No real bullets ever fired and blood packs on trumps ears and fake casualties in the crowd?

Or hired a guy to shoot and miss Trump and have casualties?

I don’t think the first is possible to stage as eventually the lack of the casualties getting medical treatment would be well known. The second would be a very high risk think needing to shoot and miss trump. Also the background of the shooter wasn’t really helpful to Trump.

I see this as conspiratorial rumours and unlikely.

[Titan2]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

I understand what you are saying. I’m just saying unless you lived in a cave your whole life you don’t need the Rogan podcast to show you Trump is a clown. He has had 78 years to cement that into everyone’s heads.

I just saw Meghan Kelly selling Trump. She had nothing other than life was better. How was it better?

Now I see a group of muslims come on stage to endorse Trump. You forget how he ran on a Muslim ban in 2016.

I am having a lot of trouble understanding what people love about this guy? He’s fat he’s short he is old he has ugly hair he is a terrible terrible businessman.

Try looking at it through the lens of the veteran in this video. I suspect many of Trump's supporters are like this guy. It took less than two minutes, and Kelly had educated him. Speaking on JRE is an opportunity to talk to millions of people like this guy. Maybe something makes an impact on them, and they look at things differently or actually look into the facts behind an issue. When you are force feed #### from every media source, friend and colleague every day, it's no wonder the pate tastes terrible.

(I don't know how to embed Insta, but this is the only place where I found the video.)

https://www.instagram.com/jolly_good...l/DBT6ja0vJa8/

[DownInFlames]

^ That’s obviously staged.

[Delthefunky]

Ha, and staged poorly.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

And lool Trump isn’t 6’2 and 200 lbs.

I think 6'2 and 300 would be close.

[Paulie Walnuts]

This Nazi rally sorry I mean Trump rally at MSG is insane.

No ####s given just going after latinos and immigrants.

[puffnstuff]

This is trumps 1939 MSG rally

[Scroopy Noopers]

Uggggghhhhhh this sucks ass. We’re so ####ed if those morons decide to #### themselves.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Panic mode for the Harris campaign. She's up to +170 in the betting markets, which carries an implied probability of 37%.

I can assure you that while there is a lot of smart money in the betting markets, there is also a LOT of dumb money in the betting markets. Probably even more so for politics bets than sports bets.

I wouldn't rely on that line as a predictor of the final outcome.

Originally Posted by BigThief

Looking at CHD Youtube channel it appears it's just clips, not fully episodes. I can't find the exact Spotify numbers, it appears JRE is top dog but I don't know where you're getting the huge difference thing from.

Doing a quick search shows that CHD has ranked higher than the JRE at various points and since Spotify doesn't release their exact metrics I, again, don't know where you're getting the "huge difference" from.

There is a night and day difference in the YouTube numbers. Even if CHD only posts clips, they are decently sized clips (6-8 minutes each), so you'd expect to see viewership numbers somewhat in the ballpark of Rogan's show, but you don't see that at all.

On Spotify, Rogan's show has been rated 857k times, while CHD has been rated 111k times. So if Spotify released its actual listener numbers, I think you'd see Rogan's episodes get at least 5x the listens as CHD on average.

[Dion]

This is hilarious!

Trump NYC rally crowd pissed about lack of toilets for supporters outside MSG: ‘Like a third-world country!’

As the security barriers erected around Madison Square Garden started filling up early Saturday, Trump supporters learned to their dismay that venturing beyond their confines for a pee break would be a one-way ticket, and that they wouldn’t be allowed back in line.

“This is just like a screw you to the Trump supporters from New York City!” Jennifer Sasser, 46, who arrived in New York City Friday morning after driving from Wisconsin to ensure she nabbed a spot at the front of the line in the entrance to the World’s Most Famous Arena.

New York police brass on scene seemed to poo-poo the concerns.

“Life in the city isn’t easy,” NYPD Chief of Patrol John Chell told The Post when asked about the lack of portable toilets for the massive crowd.

“We’ve got people in pens like watching the ball drop, but this is waiting to get into Madison Square Garden. We’re well prepared, they’re orderly. We’re going to have a very nice day.”

But a Trump aide who asked not to be named said the whole thing stinks — and that the campaign had sought the required permits but they were never approved.

“It’s pretty clear there’s election interference from someone,” the aide told The Post.

“The Trump campaign never applied for a permit. If they did, their application would’ve went through the typical permitting process, but they never applied.”

A MSG source said the absence of outhouses was “between the city and the campaign” because they wouldn’t be located on their property even if they were installed.

“We don’t have any responsibility. If people came on their own they are responsible for their own food and restrooms, etc. It’s very similar to New Year’s Eve when people go to the ball drop, the Thanksgiving parade, anything like that.”

https://nypost.com/2024/10/27/us-new...ck-of-toilets/

[FlamesAddiction]

The idea that because they show up for a rally, unpermitted, that public money and resources should be used to collect their human waste, is hilarious. I am sure they would want unpermitted Harris rallies to get the same treatment.