American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[KootenayFlamesFan]

I would advise not to follow Collin Rugg on Twitter. He is terrible, full time propagandist.

[Mathgod]

https://thecycle.substack.com/p/what...-if-trump-wins

My four year study into totalitarianism generally, and fascism specifically, has taught me two valuable lessons. The first is that the common thread among democracies that collapse into dictatorship is that no one panicked until the threat was already in power and it was too late. That is why I have continued to pound my Paul Revere-style “the fascists are coming!” campaign.

The second thing I learned is that the constitution/law can only protect you if all parties agree to adhere to it.

All you need to end a democracy is a leader willing to suspend or end the Constitution and a supporting cast large enough to allow him to do it.

Republicans have both.

A must-read.

[puffnstuff]

CNN is in the business of driving clicks and views, if a closer race gets them that then thats the narrative they push.
Also, giant roundtables are horrendous viewing.

[direwolf]

Once again, Harris is being held to a completely different standard than Trump. Idiots on CNN describing her town hall as word salad (which it wasn't, at all) and trying to "both sides" everything.

Meanwhile, Trump is talking about how he wish he had the kind of generals that Hitler had, and his former chief of staff is out there telling the world that Trump fits the definition of a fascist. And as usual, no one in the media bats an eye.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

I would advise not to follow Collin Rugg on Twitter. He is terrible, full time propagandist.

Good to know, I don't follow him, it showed up on the main screen. But also, it's a clip of the people on CNN...

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Even if CNN has shifted a bit to the right, it would be hard to believe that they're now suddenly trying to get Trump re-elected... As I mentioned, the 2 Conservative guys? Not surprised and I'm not going to take their reviews seriously, but the other 3 who carry water for whoever is against Trump? The reviews they gave were the last thing they wanted to say about the townhall.

They don't carry water for whoever is against Trump. Especially over the past 2 years. Something has changed over there, and I suspect it has to do with ownership calling the shots.

Their segment the other day fawning over Trump's McDonald stunt was vomit-inducing. What they would have said if they were an ACTUALLY honest outlet, is everything Trump does is about facades, charades, deception, and making things out to be different from what they actually are. This McDonald's stunt is just the latest chapter.

Does Trump care one iota about low wage workers? Absolutely not. But many people will come away from seeing his McD's stunt thinking that he does. The same man who hates paying overtime, doesn't want the minimum wage to increase, and has pushed anti-union policies while cutting taxes for the rich.

An honest political commentator would POINT THIS STUFF OUT.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I mean we already have 20% of the vote in

Record turnout for early voting
More Women voting
Democrat registrations higher
High number of first time voters
Late deciders breaking Harris at nearly 60%
More republicans are voting Harris than the other way around (this is an educated guess)
"Will my husband know who I voted for" trending on google searches

On what planet are millions of people saying "nah, lets go Trump" over the last couple weeks

I wouldn't say guaranteed win I just strongly object that anything has turned in Trumps favor over the last couple weeks. What is the point of polls if the margin of error is so great they are basically guaranteed to be right. "election is close" no ####...you have two teams and 95% of people would vote for a bag a #### wearing their jersey.

Trump was accused of sexual assault of a minor tonight and we aren't even talking about it lol

Most of what you're saying was true in 2016. Well other than your guesses and anecdotes which are worth less than any poll.

I also don't think people should put much weight in what happened in the midterms. Usually not a reliable indicator of presidential elections.

[puffnstuff]

CNN had Charlamagne Tha God on tonite

Charlamagne: I feel like I heard more on this network about “is Kamala Harris Black” than I do about Trump being a fascist

Cooper: That’s bull####

Charlamagne: That’s bull#### to say you don’t have those conversations

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Most of what you're saying was true in 2016. Well other than your guesses and anecdotes which are worth less than any poll.

I also don't think people should put much weight in what happened in the midterms. Usually not a reliable indicator of presidential elections.

well I'm going against the polls so lets see what is worth what in a couple weeks
Hillary had a major scandal right before the election and had over confident supporters...this is not 2016

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

https://thecycle.substack.com/p/what...-if-trump-wins




A must-read.

Precisely. Anybody who has studied history knows what’s coming here. But GGG doesn’t think so because of… reasons? Trump’s just making stuff up? Who knows but the USA is so ####ed.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Precisely. Anybody who has studied history knows what’s coming here. But GGG doesn’t think so because of… reasons? Trump’s just making stuff up? Who knows but the USA is so ####ed.

I read that and said I resemble the first person of not being concerned before it’s too late.

But I think the second sentence is what is important. That it is only society’s belief in the norms of democracy that upholds democracy. My contention is exactly that. The US norms around democracy are such that Trump will be unable to hold onto to power beyond this term. If you note in my comments all I said was that the complete dismantling into a dictatorship would take longer than Trumps term. I did not say the US would continue to have free and fair elections. (Though I think it is more likely than not that an election which the republicans could lose will still occur, the oligarchy benefits from the two party system)

I also think what the article doesn’t recognize is the number of times when a person with autocratic tendencies took power and was unable to seize power because of the said norms. The Prime example being Trump last time.

Ultimately to sieze power people will need to be willing to throw people out windows until resistance stops. I don’t think we are there yet.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

well I'm going against the polls so lets see what is worth what in a couple weeks
Hillary had a major scandal right before the election and had over confident supporters...this is not 2016

You aren’t going against the polls….. The polls suggest it’s tied.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GGG

You aren’t going against the polls….. The polls suggest it’s tied.

come on now...the general belief is that Trump in the drivers seat he has a polling advantage
good thing the polls are garbage

[calculoso]

I wonder if the “single issue Palestine” voters agree with this statement, or if Harris is still not good enough to vote for

https://twitter.com/user/status/1849618809855844799

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

come on now...the general belief is that Trump in the drivers seat he has a polling advantage
good thing the polls are garbage

538 - 51/49

Silver - Trump slightly ahead but a coin toss still
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-si...on-polls-model

So no there is no general belief amongst polling that Trump is ahead right now. Pundits may be shaping a narrative like that.

The polymarket betting at 64/36 might be a better barometer of sentiment but smart money should pull that back in. It’s basically behaving like a Rasmussen poll right now. You could argue you are going against public sentiment but you certainly aren’t going against polling.

[DownInFlames]

Please. Shut. The. ####. Up. About. Polls.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by DownInFlames

Please. Shut. The. ####. Up. About. Polls.

I love polls and polling and they make up a significant portion of election coverage so feel free to add me to your ignore list until about two weeks after the election as I will be posting about and responding to posts about them repeatedly.

[DownInFlames]

Originally Posted by GGG

I love polls and polling and they make up a significant portion of election coverage so feel free to add me to your ignore list until about two weeks after the election as I will be posting about and responding to posts about them repeatedly.

That wasn’t aimed at you, or anyone in particular, and my ignore list will remain unsullied as I believe using it is only for those who lack fortitude, and your posts are usually interesting, even though I often disagree with your takes.

Polling might be useful for campaign managers looking for any ways to bolster their strategy, but it seems about as scientific as dowsing or astrology. Polls are often manipulated, especially now that gambling is involved.

That kind of talk also reminds me of sports talk, which is the lowest for of discourse, as the FOI forum will attest. :bigwink:

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by GGG

538 - 51/49

Silver - Trump slightly ahead but a coin toss still
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-si...on-polls-model

So no there is no general belief amongst polling that Trump is ahead right now. Pundits may be shaping a narrative like that.

The polymarket betting at 64/36 might be a better barometer of sentiment but smart money should pull that back in. It’s basically behaving like a Rasmussen poll right now. You could argue you are going against public sentiment but you certainly aren’t going against polling.

Given that article I had posted about Polymarket, I really don't think it's a valid predictor of anything. One person moved the odds so much with their $25 million, I just don't see how that tells you anything, other than one person is betting a lot on Trump. And because there are no limits on number of bets(what you are considering a proxy for a poll question) it's a bit like one person giving the same answer many times. I don't see how this is useful.

[calculoso]

Can we trust anything that Musk says or does?

This includes his PAC, the illegal attempts to sway the election, etc?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1849623155586875897

https://twitter.com/user/status/1849641137461395922