American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[cral12]

Originally Posted by GGG

Anyone in the Silver is artificially inflating trumps odds of winning to drive bets to poly market camp like to explain why all models are very similar?

yah, funny enough, his model now has Kamala by the widest margin.

Jeez the betting odds keep moving in tRump's favour now to 53% as of 38 minutes ago fwiw (and with all the weaknesses that entails)

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by photon

https://www.apologize.lol/



In response to Musk paying people $47 to people who register someone to vote MAGA.

I thought I was reading that this is illegal?

[Sylvanfan]

Has anyone ever listened to "The Rest is Politics US" podcast?

Features a BBC journalist who goes by Katty Kay and Anthony Scaranucci. One was part of the team that got Trump elected in 2016 and the other has covered U.S Elections for quite some time. Horrible heterosexual me is a sucker for a sharp witted female with that accent...

They are very pro Democrat, but one thing they have noted is that Trump does go hard with his rallies right to the end and the Democrats tend to lay off the gas and rest on their laurels. Hillary Clinton having a swanky rally in Philly with Springsteen and other A listers was a waste of time while Trump has rallies in small towns in the West to speak to the undecided types. Biden who is from Pennsylvania went to those areas and used his native to the region background to win. They fear that Harris is doing more like Hillary right now and what that can result in. Fancy fundraiser gala's catering to the ultra rich..doesn't get you swing votes in Ohio.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Has anyone ever listened to "The Rest is Politics US" podcast?

Features a BBC journalist who goes by Katty Kay and Anthony Scaranucci. One was part of the team that got Trump elected in 2016 and the other has covered U.S Elections for quite some time. Horrible heterosexual me is a sucker for a sharp witted female with that accent...

They are very pro Democrat, but one thing they have noted is that Trump does go hard with his rallies right to the end and the Democrats tend to lay off the gas and rest on their laurels. Hillary Clinton having a swanky rally in Philly with Springsteen and other A listers was a waste of time while Trump has rallies in small towns in the West to speak to the undecided types. Biden who is from Pennsylvania went to those areas and used his native to the region background to win. They fear that Harris is doing more like Hillary right now and what that can result in. Fancy fundraiser gala's catering to the ultra rich..doesn't get you swing votes in Ohio.

The same guy posted on Twitter that Harris has PA in the bag. It is based on registrations.

[photon]

What's illegal even mean anymore?!

I think they skirt around the issue as they're paying for social media activity and making a plan to vote.

Just like how Musk is paying for getting people to sign a petition to feed their get out the vote efforts.

It's also funny because Cards Against Humanity is telling people to sign Musk's petition with Cards Against Humanity's email address so that they receive the $47 Musk is paying, and if Musk doesn't pay they'll sue Musk lol.

It should all be illegal...

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by cral12

yah, funny enough, his model now has Kamala by the widest margin.

Jeez the betting odds keep moving in tRump's favour now to 53% as of 38 minutes ago fwiw (and with all the weaknesses that entails)

Betting odds really don't mean a whole lot. Clinton was 88% to win based on them in 2016. And she never once dropped below 66%, even though polling averages like 538 had the race as a tossup multiple times in late July and late September.

And in 2020, betting odds showed it as 50/50 race in early September, even though Biden was leading by 7-8 points nationally and most polling aggregates had him at 70-80% to win at that point.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by cral12

yah, funny enough, his model now has Kamala by the widest margin.

Jeez the betting odds keep moving in tRump's favour now to 53% as of 38 minutes ago fwiw (and with all the weaknesses that entails)

betting odds are totally irrelevant considering demographics of the average gambler

The Dems have more voters...if they get the turnout they win, if they don't they lose

[Senator Clay Davis]

Pretty sure I remember one of the books was paying out Hillary win tickets in 2016 before the election. The whole racket here is pretty silly.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

They are very pro Democrat, but one thing they have noted is that Trump does go hard with his rallies right to the end and the Democrats tend to lay off the gas and rest on their laurels. Hillary Clinton having a swanky rally in Philly with Springsteen and other A listers was a waste of time while Trump has rallies in small towns in the West to speak to the undecided types. Biden who is from Pennsylvania went to those areas and used his native to the region background to win. They fear that Harris is doing more like Hillary right now and what that can result in. Fancy fundraiser gala's catering to the ultra rich..doesn't get you swing votes in Ohio.

Harris is running a pretty awful campaign. The one thing that seemed to be getting traction (highlighting Republican extremism) has kind of been thrown out the window. And now she's complimenting Dick Cheney, sounding like a neocon, and seemingly unable to articulate what she would do differently than Biden, other than have a Republican in her cabinet.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by cral12

yah, funny enough, his model now has Kamala by the widest margin.

Jeez the betting odds keep moving in tRump's favour now to 53% as of 38 minutes ago fwiw (and with all the weaknesses that entails)

Those are all the same number though. Anything between 60/40 either way is really stating the same thing. We don’t know within the margin of error.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Harris is running a pretty awful campaign. The one thing that seemed to be getting traction (highlighting Republican extremism) has kind of been thrown out the window. And now she's complimenting Dick Cheney, sounding like a neocon, and seemingly unable to articulate what she would do differently than Biden, other than have a Republican in her cabinet.

It's just been way too conservative of a campaign (pun intended?). Sure, "I'm not Trump" should be good enough, but not in Murica. Had a couple huge momentum moments and did nothing with them.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

betting odds are totally irrelevant considering demographics of the average gambler

The Dems have more voters...if they get the turnout they win, if they don't they lose

That assumes there is no Sharp money. I think we are seeing that as election gambling becomes more popular the gambling odds become a more accurate prediction of results.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Also, the Dems having more voters is kind of irrelevant. The need turnout in very specific states, not in general. There's definitely a scenario where she gets more votes than Biden and still loses.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

It's just been way too conservative of a campaign (pun intended?). Sure, "I'm not Trump" should be good enough, but not in Murica. Had a couple huge momentum moments and did nothing with them.

Yeah, the Dems just love to trip over their own dicks and they're doing it again.

This race shouldn't be this close. Her momentum stalled as soon as they started to move to the right to capture the mythical moderate Republicans, and took more hawkish positions on foreign policy.

Also, for all the arguments that "Americans don't care what's happening to Palestine," it sure does look like she's losing support in the "blue wall" states because she's not demonstrating any daylight between her position and Biden's on Palestine.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I know everything is supposed to be Serious AF around here and that having time for humour while Rome burns makes us who do it horrible people, but am I suppose to see this and not laugh at the absurdity of Murica?

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I know everything is supposed to be Serious AF around here and that having time for humour while Rome burns makes us who do it horrible people, but am I suppose to see this and not laugh at the absurdity of Murica?

That falcon doesn't look like he wants anything to do with those two.

[cral12]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Also, the Dems having more voters is kind of irrelevant. The need turnout in very specific states, not in general. There's definitely a scenario where she gets more votes than Biden and still loses.

Decent podcast on this recently fwiw

[Reveal] Not All Votes Are Created Equal
https://revealnews.org/podcast/not-a...l-update-2024/

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

It's just been way too conservative of a campaign (pun intended?). Sure, "I'm not Trump" should be good enough, but not in Murica. Had a couple huge momentum moments and did nothing with them.

I’ve been reading a lot lately about how the Dems’ ground game has been far better and more aggressive than Trump’s. I don’t know whether having a good ground game makes that big of a difference these days, but hopefully it helps move the needle in Harris’ favour.

Sounds like GOP has all but given up on their ground game and are putting most of their focus towards Trump’s Nazi rallies to motivate the MAGA cult. I think Trump has likely reached his ceiling and his votes are pretty much locked in at this point. He’s not gaining any new voters. Whereas if Harris can get more women and young people off their asses, she could potentially gain millions of new and reluctant voters.

From what I’m hearing from friends and family in the States, Dem voters are very motivated, which is great. But whether that will be enough in the swing states is anyone’s guess. This is a pretty scary time.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Harris is running a pretty awful campaign. The one thing that seemed to be getting traction (highlighting Republican extremism) has kind of been thrown out the window. And now she's complimenting Dick Cheney, sounding like a neocon, and seemingly unable to articulate what she would do differently than Biden, other than have a Republican in her cabinet.

They noted how Hillary Clinton to this day believes that the leaked email scandal did her in. That proved to be nothing of substance. But the counterpoint made was that Hillary ran a weak campaign and on voting day too many people opted to not support her. The Republicans purposefully propped up Jill Stein with donations in the swing states to appeal to people who didn't want to vote Trump but weren't crazy about her.

[Coach]